2032 : Pres. Beto O'Rourke (D-TX)/VP Sherrod Brown (D-OH) v Sen. Ron DeSantis (R-FL)/Rep. Garcia of
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  2032 : Pres. Beto O'Rourke (D-TX)/VP Sherrod Brown (D-OH) v Sen. Ron DeSantis (R-FL)/Rep. Garcia of
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Author Topic: 2032 : Pres. Beto O'Rourke (D-TX)/VP Sherrod Brown (D-OH) v Sen. Ron DeSantis (R-FL)/Rep. Garcia of  (Read 360 times)
Huey Long is a Republican
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« on: August 02, 2021, 12:15:50 PM »

The scenario here is the following : in 2008, Obama picks Bayh instead of Biden, in 2016, Bayh beats Rubio and an Independent Trump who decided against running in the GOP Primary after John Thune, the majority leader (As McConnell is defeated in his 2008 Senate bid by Bruce Lunsford) states on a hot mic in a private meeting if Trump was ever nominated and won, he'd never support his Agenda and would work behind the scenes to try and end any idea of populist America First movement that could kill the GOP. In 2016, Bayh and Tester wins 391 EVs and 53.2% of the NPV, Trump and Cruz wins 87 EVs and 20.2% of the NPV, and Rubio and Haslam win 60 EVs and 25.4% of the NPV.

This leads to a Trumpist wave in 2018 as many incumbents are either primaried out or lose re-election with Trump backed choices for the GOP. 2020 sees Tucker Carlson and his VP, Sen. Nikki Haley to try and rally the backing of the establishment, defeat Bayh and go on to defeat Tester, though Carlson changes Haley out for Blackburn in 2024 after she tries to push him to intervene in a civil war in Asia.

In 2028, Texas Governor since 2023 Beto O'Rourke, who came close to beating Cruz in 2018 despite it being a red wave (losing by 4.7%), didn't kill any political future of his with a failed Presidential bid and instead campaigned heavily for the Tester/Harris ticket even though they would lose in a landslide in 2024, becomes the nominee for the Democrats, selecting former Ohio Senator and Former Secretary of Labor (2019-2021 under Bayh) Sherrod Brown as his running mate while facing a R. Scott/Blackburn ticket, winning a close race and just barely flipping Texas. Meanwhile, Representative Mike Garcia of California has held on long enough to become House Majority Leader, oustsing McCarthy favorite Elise Stefanik, and Former two-Term Florida Governor Ron DeSantis beats Cantera in the Senate Primary and wins election to the Senate, becoming a fierce critic of the O'Rourke presidency and the clear favorite/front-runner.

In 2030, a massive economic crisis hits and with O'Rourke unable to properly manage it, unemployment spirals to double digits and inflation hits massive highs. O'Rourke is extremely unpopular, with a 30% Approval Rating, but is just barely able to stave off a Primary Challenge from Louisiana Senator and former Governor John Bel Edwards while DeSantis only faces Haley and Steve Daines as token opposition that fails to gain too much traction in the primaries.

By Election Day, O'Rourke is the extreme underdog, polling 7-9 points below DeSantis. What is the election result, potential closest states, and national popular vote? If you want, you can also explain why you think the map will be that in this scenario.

Hope this gave enough detail for everything, ciao!
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ChiefFireWaterMike
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« Reply #1 on: August 26, 2021, 05:00:41 PM »

A far more likely timeline involving Mike is this
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