What individual election results would have suggested Trump was re-election?

[Tekken_Guy]

What individual election results from 2020 would have suggested that Trump won re-election?

[Wormless Gourd]

Miami-Dade county, for the magnitude of shift for such a large county in a high-spending, battleground state.
Maybe Zapata county too if given context that it's directly on the border, 95% hispanic and hadn't voted for a Republican in a century.

[Roll Roons]

Iowa and Ohio not shifting that much.

[Calthrina950]

Trump's decisive margins of victory in Florida and Texas.

[Pres Mike]

Trump's decisive margins of victory in Florida and Texas.

Texas swung three points to the left. If you told me that fact alone in 2019 I would assume Democrats easily won WI/MI/P and narrowly FL/NC

If you told me Trump won Florida by an even larger margin, I'd died of a heart attack

[Calthrina950]

Trump's decisive margins of victory in Florida and Texas.

Texas swung three points to the left. If you told me that fact alone in 2019 I would assume Democrats easily won WI/MI/P and narrowly FL/NC

If you told me Trump won Florida by an even larger margin, I'd died of a heart attack

True, but for much of last year, Texas was thought to be competitive, and we had polls showing Biden tied or even leading in the state. I think Trump did better than expected there. But as to Florida, I think that's a pretty clear result that would have suggested a Trump reelection.

[Pres Mike]

Trump's decisive margins of victory in Florida and Texas.

Texas swung three points to the left. If you told me that fact alone in 2019 I would assume Democrats easily won WI/MI/P and narrowly FL/NC

If you told me Trump won Florida by an even larger margin, I'd died of a heart attack

True, but for much of last year, Texas was thought to be competitive, and we had polls showing Biden tied or even leading in the state. I think Trump did better than expected there. But as to Florida, I think that's a pretty clear result that would have suggested a Trump reelection.

Did anyone really buy the polls showing Biden leading or tied in Texas? Neither campaign did and 538 ultimately expected Trump to carry Texas by 2 points

Same way no one expected Biden to carry Wisconsin by 8 points

[OSR stands with Israel]

Trump's decisive margins of victory in Florida and Texas.

Texas swung three points to the left. If you told me that fact alone in 2019 I would assume Democrats easily won WI/MI/P and narrowly FL/NC

If you told me Trump won Florida by an even larger margin, I'd died of a heart attack

True, but for much of last year, Texas was thought to be competitive, and we had polls showing Biden tied or even leading in the state. I think Trump did better than expected there. But as to Florida, I think that's a pretty clear result that would have suggested a Trump reelection.

Did anyone really buy the polls showing Biden leading or tied in Texas? Neither campaign did and 538 ultimately expected Trump to carry Texas by 2 points

Same way no one expected Biden to carry Wisconsin by 8 points

A Poster by the name of TrendsAreReal gaslighted any poster who said Texas wasnt a pure tossup state and there were many posters who expected Biden to win Texas.

[Podgy the Bear]

The minimal changes in IA and OH would have led me to believe that Biden wasn't going to push through the Rust Belt trifecta (MI, PA, and WI) and the FL returns by 10:30 PM on Election Night made it seem that the Sun Belt strategy (AZ, GA, NC) wasn't going to work either. 

[Progressive Pessimist]

Florida (specifically Miami-Dade), Kenosha County, Iowa, Ohio, and the Rio Grande Valley.

[Crumpets]

Apart from the presidential results, Democrats not picking up either NC, ME, or IA in the Senate while barely holding on to MI by less than 2 points would have sent alarm bells ringing.

[GregTheGreat657]

The results in Florida, Texas, Ohio, Iowa, and Maine's 2nd district.

[morgankingsley]

A I said before, if you told me at this point on august 2019 that trump win 74 million votes, I would already be making plans for his second term, and be figuring out how many states he picked up with 11 million extra votes

[Bootes Void]

Florida is the only obsvious one.

[pbrower2a]

Trump's decisive margins of victory in Florida and Texas.

Texas? This was the weakest R win in Texas in the 21st century. If you tell me that Texas moves 3% D from 2016 you suggest that the Republican nominee is in deep trouble.

Florida I understand.   

[Calthrina950]

Trump's decisive margins of victory in Florida and Texas.

Texas? This was the weakest R win in Texas in the 21st century. If you tell me that Texas moves 3% D from 2016 you suggest that the Republican nominee is in deep trouble.

Florida I understand.   

Trump won Texas more decisively than had been expected by many.

[perpetual_cynic]

Trump's decisive margins of victory in Florida and Texas.

Texas swung three points to the left. If you told me that fact alone in 2019 I would assume Democrats easily won WI/MI/P and narrowly FL/NC

If you told me Trump won Florida by an even larger margin, I'd died of a heart attack

True, but for much of last year, Texas was thought to be competitive, and we had polls showing Biden tied or even leading in the state. I think Trump did better than expected there. But as to Florida, I think that's a pretty clear result that would have suggested a Trump reelection.

I started to call b.s. when the polls showed a close race between Cornyn and Hegar.

[Hope For A New Era]

Most of them. The election really does look like a Trump reelection, except for the whole "Trump not being reelected" part. What a weird election.

[Chips]

If I was told that my county (Trumbull) was going to vote for Trump by double digits and that Lorain and Mahoning were flipping, I definitely would've taken that as a sign that Biden was ultimately going to fall into the same traps Clinton fell into and that he was going to lose.

If I was told this information in November 2019, I would've guessed he won re-election with his 2016 map as well as Minnesota and New Hampshire. If told slightly before the election, I would've guessed the same with NH taken out.

[Non Swing Voter]

I really only think the Florida result was a bad omen for Biden.  Maybe also Nevada (but that was highly explainable by the shutdowns).

I never thought Biden would actually win OH and IA, and there was some movement in those states.  Given that MI/WI/PA were much closer, just a little bit of movement was needed.

I also think the TX results were still fairly OK for a Biden win because it indicated that there was going to be movement in AZ.

On the flip side: the relative ease by which NH, ME, NM, MN, CO were called for Biden were strong indicators of a Biden win.  If I had just seen those results I would have assumed it would be a blowout. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Most of them. The election really does look like a Trump reelection, except for the whole "Trump not being reelected" part. What a weird election.

If someone told you the Democratic nominee would carry Georgia, wouldn't you immediately assume they won the election?

[Hope For A New Era]

Most of them. The election really does look like a Trump reelection, except for the whole "Trump not being reelected" part. What a weird election.

If someone told you the Democratic nominee would carry Georgia, wouldn't you immediately assume they won the election?

Yes. I said most of them, not all of them.

[Skill and Chance]

Most of them. The election really does look like a Trump reelection, except for the whole "Trump not being reelected" part. What a weird election.

If someone told you the Democratic nominee would carry Georgia, wouldn't you immediately assume they won the election?

Yes. I said most of them, not all of them.

Feeding in partial data from basically anywhere outside of Atlanta, Denver, Minneapolis, the DC Area, and New England would have led a model to predict a Trump win, but if you fed the model only those cities, it would probably predict Biden +10 nationwide.  Even in the swing states Biden flipped, most of the urban results don't look like "enough" for him on paper (Philadelphia, Detroit, even Maricopa being much closer than in AZ-SEN 2018)!

[Tekken_Guy]

Most of them. The election really does look like a Trump reelection, except for the whole "Trump not being reelected" part. What a weird election.

If someone told you the Democratic nominee would carry Georgia, wouldn't you immediately assume they won the election?

Yes. I said most of them, not all of them.

Feeding in partial data from basically anywhere outside of Atlanta, Denver, Minneapolis, the DC Area, and New England would have led a model to predict a Trump win, but if you fed the model only those cities, it would probably predict Biden +10 nationwide.  Even in the swing states Biden flipped, most of the urban results don't look like "enough" for him on paper (Philadelphia, Detroit, even Maricopa being much closer than in AZ-SEN 2018)!

What model are you referring to?

[Skill and Chance]

Most of them. The election really does look like a Trump reelection, except for the whole "Trump not being reelected" part. What a weird election.

If someone told you the Democratic nominee would carry Georgia, wouldn't you immediately assume they won the election?

Yes. I said most of them, not all of them.

Feeding in partial data from basically anywhere outside of Atlanta, Denver, Minneapolis, the DC Area, and New England would have led a model to predict a Trump win, but if you fed the model only those cities, it would probably predict Biden +10 nationwide.  Even in the swing states Biden flipped, most of the urban results don't look like "enough" for him on paper (Philadelphia, Detroit, even Maricopa being much closer than in AZ-SEN 2018)!

What model are you referring to?

I'm thinking of something like the NYT needle, but if it had enough information to run nationally in 2020.