Mexico 2021 Referendum Consult: To determine if former Presidents can be prosecuted for corruption

[Socani]

Today is the ''Consult/Referendum'' to approve charging or judging former presidents in the last 25 years.

This is considered as a staple/campaign promise of AMLO's presidency.

It will probably not pass (based on social media photos of polling places today), because it needs a turnout of 40% or above of the electorate for this consult to be approved.

Many see this as a disgrace or a farce because they say people shouldn't decide who can or can't be charged under law.

In my opinion I believe it's a referendum on the current administration.

My ranges for this consult are based on the possible turnout:

40% or Above: Ebrard or Sheinbaum will win in 2024.

30% to 39%: The government will survive but it will make the 2024 election competitive.

20% to 29%: AMLO will need to change many of his policies and cabinet members to help Ebrard's/Sheinbaum's political aspirations/electability or he will risk being a political one-hit wonder (Like the PRI revival in 2012)

19% or less: His government and the political career of many people in his party are over.

[Socani]

An example of the low turnout: a polling place in CDMX only had 25 people voting there in the first 2 hours.

https://twitter.com/MVSNoticias/status/1421881353901993985

[Mike88]

Why did he called a referendum in the first place? It seems a bit of a silly topic to call a referendum about, IMO. Can't the government change the law only by legislative manners?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Why did he called a referendum in the first place? It seems a bit of a silly topic to call a referendum about, IMO. Can't the government change the law only by legislative manners?

Because he’s a populist who loves “consulting the people” because he thinks it gives him more legitimacy.

[Socani]

Why did he called a referendum in the first place? It seems a bit of a silly topic to call a referendum about, IMO. Can't the government change the law only by legislative manners?

Tecnically yes, but this matter is a self-inflicted wound of this government. One of the promises of AMLO was putting on the ballot the charging of former presidents as a demagogic policy but it's a poisoned chalice because, firstly, you can't let the people decide the law. Second, if you let people decide the law why bother have a congress, they can decide economic and social policies and that's a Pandora box by itself.

[Socani]

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1421968991430529025
According to my data we will have the results of at least 50% of the voting at 9:45-10:05 pm (UTC-5).

[Socani]

Twitter is on fire because of the Interview of the INE President, Here is an Example:

https://twitter.com/rochaperiodista/status/1421889546862665737

All of AMLO's supporters and bots are accusing Córdova of Sabotage and Mismanagement of the Referendum, all absurdities.

[Mike88]

Why did he called a referendum in the first place? It seems a bit of a silly topic to call a referendum about, IMO. Can't the government change the law only by legislative manners?

Tecnically yes, but this matter is a self-inflicted wound of this government. One of the promises of AMLO was putting on the ballot the charging of former presidents as a demagogic policy but it's a poisoned chalice because, firstly, you can't let the people decide the law. Second, if you let people decide the law why bother have a congress, they can decide economic and social policies and that's a Pandora box by itself.

In fact, it's quite easy in this case. Presidents after their term is over don't have immunity, so they can be investigated and charged if any illegal activities are proven like any other ordinary citizen. Presidents in Mexico after leaving office do lose immunity, right?

Because he’s a populist who loves “consulting the people” because he thinks it gives him more legitimacy.

In this case, I'm with Socani, this is a self-inflicted wound by AMLO.

[Socani]

Why did he called a referendum in the first place? It seems a bit of a silly topic to call a referendum about, IMO. Can't the government change the law only by legislative manners?

Tecnically yes, but this matter is a self-inflicted wound of this government. One of the promises of AMLO was putting on the ballot the charging of former presidents as a demagogic policy but it's a poisoned chalice because, firstly, you can't let the people decide the law. Second, if you let people decide the law why bother have a congress, they can decide economic and social policies and that's a Pandora box by itself.

In fact, it's quite easy in this case. Presidents after their term is over don't have immunity, so they can be investigated and charged if any illegal activities are proven like any other ordinary citizen. Presidents in Mexico after leaving office do lose immunity, right?

Yeah they lose immunity, but if all the former Presidents were charged by corruption (The only process that could get opened) Only Calderón and Peña Nieto would be Investigated. Everyone else would be safe from all prosecution (Because of Expiration of Charges: You can't investigate someone for corruption if they left Public Office 20 years ago or above that)

[Mike88]

Why did he called a referendum in the first place? It seems a bit of a silly topic to call a referendum about, IMO. Can't the government change the law only by legislative manners?

Tecnically yes, but this matter is a self-inflicted wound of this government. One of the promises of AMLO was putting on the ballot the charging of former presidents as a demagogic policy but it's a poisoned chalice because, firstly, you can't let the people decide the law. Second, if you let people decide the law why bother have a congress, they can decide economic and social policies and that's a Pandora box by itself.

In fact, it's quite easy in this case. Presidents after their term is over don't have immunity, so they can be investigated and charged if any illegal activities are proven like any other ordinary citizen. Presidents in Mexico after leaving office do lose immunity, right?

Yeah they lose immunity, but if all the former Presidents were charged by corruption (The only process that could get opened) Only Calderón and Peña Nieto would be Investigated. Everyone else would be safe from all prosecution (Because of Expiration of Charges: You can't investigate someone for corruption if it passed 20 years since they left their job)

Well, but that's a problem many countries have, for example, in my country we have a former Prime Minister investigated and charged with corruption but some of his crimes he was accused of, were dropped because of expiration of charges. Of course, this has different interpretations by different judges which can create rulings less favourable and others more favourable. But, yeah, this is something law experts have to analyse: does expiration of charges make any sense and when does it start? when the crime is committed or when it was discovered?

[Socani]

Why did he called a referendum in the first place? It seems a bit of a silly topic to call a referendum about, IMO. Can't the government change the law only by legislative manners?

Tecnically yes, but this matter is a self-inflicted wound of this government. One of the promises of AMLO was putting on the ballot the charging of former presidents as a demagogic policy but it's a poisoned chalice because, firstly, you can't let the people decide the law. Second, if you let people decide the law why bother have a congress, they can decide economic and social policies and that's a Pandora box by itself.

In fact, it's quite easy in this case. Presidents after their term is over don't have immunity, so they can be investigated and charged if any illegal activities are proven like any other ordinary citizen. Presidents in Mexico after leaving office do lose immunity, right?

Yeah they lose immunity, but if all the former Presidents were charged by corruption (The only process that could get opened) Only Calderón and Peña Nieto would be Investigated. Everyone else would be safe from all prosecution (Because of Expiration of Charges: You can't investigate someone for corruption if it passed 20 years since they left their job)

Well, but that's a problem many countries have, for example, in my country we have a former Prime Minister investigated and charged with corruption but some of his crimes he was accused of, were dropped because of expiration of charges. Of course, this has different interpretations by different judges which can create rulings less favourable and others more favourable. But, yeah, this is something law experts have to analyse: does expiration of charges make any sense and when does it start? when the crime is committed or when it was discovered?

If I remember well, Mexican Law Charges expire 15 years after the crime was committed (Unless it's charges related to rape/sexual related things, those only expire when the victimary dies)

[Socani]

The Website for the ''Consult'' results is open....

https://computos.cp2021.ine.mx/votos-distrito/mapa

As of 08:53 am, August 2nd. (UTC-5)

99.00% of Acts computed amounts to 6,626,000 voters; 7.07% of the electorate.

97.73% Yes, 1.54% No, 0.73% Null.

[jaichind]

Is it me or are the turnout going to fall far far below the 40% threshold ? Like less than 10%.  Is this some sort of mistake? Why would AMLO go through with this if the turnout is going to fall short by such massive numbers ?

[Socani]

Is it me or are the turnout going to fall far far below the 40% threshold ? Like less than 10%.  Is this some sort of mistake? Why would AMLO go through with this if the turnout is going to fall short by such massive numbers ?

Because it was one of the few campaign promises that he could get done easily, but the problem was that it couldn't overlap with the Congressional Election because of Budget and Political issues between INE (The electoral commission), Congress, The President, and The Supreme Court. So all of them decided to do it 3 months after the election. Another Problem is Mexico entered 2 weeks ago in the 3rd COVID Wave so the low turnout is a mix of apathy, weariness of contracting Coronavirus, weariness on the consult and/or the government.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Is AMLO gonna try and make up for this with big turnout in the recall referendum later this year? Is that still even going on?

[jaichind]

Is it me or are the turnout going to fall far far below the 40% threshold ? Like less than 10%.  Is this some sort of mistake? Why would AMLO go through with this if the turnout is going to fall short by such massive numbers ?

Because it was one of the few campaign promises that he could get done easily, but the problem was that it couldn't overlap with the Congressional Election because of Budget and Political issues between INE (The electoral commission), Congress, The President, and The Supreme Court. So all of them decided to do it 3 months after the election. Another Problem is Mexico entered 2 weeks ago in the 3rd COVID Wave so the low turnout is a mix of apathy, weariness of contracting Coronavirus, weariness on the consult and/or the government.

Is it possible all this was choreographed ? Namely AMLO made a deal with Nieto back in 2018 to allows AMLO to win fair and square and in return AMLO will go through the motions of "getting though on corruption" and "no one is above the law" but what emerges are bunch of toothless public show of getting though but nothing actually happens to Nieto.

[Socani]

Is AMLO gonna try and make up for this with big turnout in the recall referendum later this year? Is that still even going on?

I think so, maybe he will try to pressure INE to either treat the recall referendum as a federal election, or not making it happen.

[Socani]

Is it me or are the turnout going to fall far far below the 40% threshold ? Like less than 10%.  Is this some sort of mistake? Why would AMLO go through with this if the turnout is going to fall short by such massive numbers ?

Because it was one of the few campaign promises that he could get done easily, but the problem was that it couldn't overlap with the Congressional Election because of Budget and Political issues between INE (The electoral commission), Congress, The President, and The Supreme Court. So all of them decided to do it 3 months after the election. Another Problem is Mexico entered 2 weeks ago in the 3rd COVID Wave so the low turnout is a mix of apathy, weariness of contracting Coronavirus, weariness on the consult and/or the government.

Is it possible all this was choreographed ? Namely AMLO made a deal with Nieto back in 2018 to allows AMLO to win fair and square and in return AMLO will go through the motions of "getting though on corruption" and "no one is above the law" but what emerges are bunch of toothless public show of getting though but nothing actually happens to Nieto.

Yeah, it's choreographed but it was seen as telegraphed by a mile that he would try to make the consult an electoral issue. But what AMLO didn't see was both the Coronavirus and the Apathy/Disdain of the Opposition and some of his own supporters to himself so there was a calling for a national boycott to the consult.

[JM1295]

Today is the ''Consult/Referendum'' to approve charging or judging former presidents in the last 25 years.

This is considered as a staple/campaign promise of AMLO's presidency.

It will probably not pass (based on social media photos of polling places today), because it needs a turnout of 40% or above of the electorate for this consult to be approved.

Many see this as a disgrace or a farce because they say people shouldn't decide who can or can't be charged under law.

In my opinion I believe it's a referendum on the current administration.

My ranges for this consult are based on the possible turnout:

40% or Above: Ebrard or Sheinbaum will win in 2024.

30% to 39%: The government will survive but it will make the 2024 election competitive.

20% to 29%: AMLO will need to change many of his policies and cabinet members to help Ebrard's/Sheinbaum's political aspirations/electability or he will risk being a political one-hit wonder (Like the PRI revival in 2012)

19% or less: His government and the political career of many people in his party are over.

I will say that I dont really agree with low turnout meaning MORENA is in trouble for 2024. Midterm elections just two months ago showed this isn't the case, even with a united opposition. The turnout being abysmal obviously isn't great for AMLO and his party and they don't have 2024 on lock, but I wouldn't jump to too many conclusions based on turnout for this referendum.

[Socani]

Today is the ''Consult/Referendum'' to approve charging or judging former presidents in the last 25 years.

This is considered as a staple/campaign promise of AMLO's presidency.

It will probably not pass (based on social media photos of polling places today), because it needs a turnout of 40% or above of the electorate for this consult to be approved.

Many see this as a disgrace or a farce because they say people shouldn't decide who can or can't be charged under law.

In my opinion I believe it's a referendum on the current administration.

My ranges for this consult are based on the possible turnout:

40% or Above: Ebrard or Sheinbaum will win in 2024.

30% to 39%: The government will survive but it will make the 2024 election competitive.

20% to 29%: AMLO will need to change many of his policies and cabinet members to help Ebrard's/Sheinbaum's political aspirations/electability or he will risk being a political one-hit wonder (Like the PRI revival in 2012)

19% or less: His government and the political career of many people in his party are over.

I will say that I dont really agree with low turnout meaning MORENA is in trouble for 2024. Midterm elections just two months ago showed this isn't the case, even with a united opposition. The turnout being abysmal obviously isn't great for AMLO and his party and they don't have 2024 on lock, but I wouldn't jump to too many conclusions based on turnout for this referendum.

I disagree. This consult and the last election showed that MORENA alone, in non-bastion states, can't win elections without political structures and machines from outside of the party (Like in San Luis Potosí with PVEM or Sinaloa with Rebel PRI members) or if there is a 3 way matchup (Like in Campeche).

And those aligned political structures are not beholden to MORENA, only to Obrador by political convenience and worry of the loss of their power because of societal and economic change.

I think this will led to a Mix of Latin American and North American style of political polarization, as CDMX showed (Amplified by the Pandemic), and Mexico City's political trends are always ahead 10-15 years of the country. Mix that with the social structure of the country and it means Mexican Politics will enter in a chaotic period if MORENA doesn't change at all.

[Socani]

The photo in this tweet explains my last comment, all of MORENA's political/Electoral machines in the North are ''borrowed''(Only by financial convenience) and didn't even bother trying to legitimate AMLO's consult. Their only real bastions are in the upper-right range.

https://twitter.com/ElenoAM/status/1422190447225606145
The X Axis is the Percentage of MORENA's coalition vote in 2021 by Electoral District, The Y Axis is the range of Turnout by District.

[Socani]

Another image explaining the differences in turnout between Northern and Southern States:





One of the Standouts is Yucatán: The state had less turnout for the consult (Even less than most of the northwestern states) compared to recent Federal Elections where they are one of the most participative states in the country:

2018 Presidential Election:


2012 Presidential Election:


2006 Presidential Election:


2000 Presidential Election:


Correlation of Economic Development and Electoral turnout (From 1991 Federal election to 2021 Federal Election

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Why is Sonora such an outlier compared to its neighbors from 2000-2012?

[Socani]

Why is Sonora such an outlier compared to its neighbors from 2000-2012?

From what I searched, all of the darkest coloured municipalities in the 3 maps are rural, mountainous, forested , low-populated, depending on 2 main industries: Bacanora (A Liquor made of a type of Agave, like Mezcal) and Mining (Gold and Carbon).

Surprisingly most of them have high social and economic development and voted for different parties in state and federal elections (PRI at state level and PAN in the national level) so in conclusion I think their ruralness mixed with their development makes them more prone to vote compared to other northwestern rural municipalities..