San Diego county: recall 49 keep 40 (user search)
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  San Diego county: recall 49 keep 40 (search mode)
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Author Topic: San Diego county: recall 49 keep 40  (Read 1205 times)
Skill and Chance
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« on: July 31, 2021, 08:19:09 PM »
This is going to be close.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2021, 10:06:07 AM »
Quote from: Хahar 🤔 on August 01, 2021, 05:28:12 AM
Yeah, somehow I'm not convinced that a poll whose winner would be Some Guy (D) indicates that Newsom is in real danger.

Paffrath is not a mainline Dem.  He would be in the running for most conservative Dem governor in the country (depending entirely on how much weight you put on JBE being pro-life).
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2021, 10:07:42 AM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on July 31, 2021, 11:00:28 PM

Sure seems like it.

I think the chance of the recall succeeding is still less than 50%, but it's a lot closer to 50% than 0.

Would be very ironic if Newsom loses and then McAuliffe wins comfortably given the CW about both races.  Fairly plausible too, as this would send the VA/NJ Dems into panic/regroup mode.
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