CA (recall) - Emerson - Keep +2

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1422542774369402884

[wbrocks67]

These struck me:

Hispanics are the only racial group in favor of the recall (54% recall/41% keep), while White respondents were split (48% recall/49% keep). Majorities of Black respondents (41% recall/57% keep) and Asian respondents (30% recall/49% keep) were in favor of keeping Newsom as Governor.

Majorities of Republicans (80% recall/16% keep) and Independents (54% recall/ 34% keep) are in favor of the recall. Democrats are largely in favor of keeping Newsom, but almost a quarter plan to vote to recall the Governor (23% recall/73% keep).

Independents being +20 recall and Hispanics being +13 recall both seem.... high

[MT Treasurer]

It would be hilarious if CA-GOV 2021 ended up being Biden's MA-SEN 2010/AL-SEN 2017, but I don’t see it happening. I do buy Newson's exceptionally weak numbers among Hispanics in this race, though — not this poor, but fairly close to his numbers among whites.

[Skye]

It would be hilarious if CA-GOV 2021 ended up being Biden's MA-SEN 2010/AL-SEN 2017, but I don’t see it happening. I do buy Newson's exceptionally weak numbers among Hispanics in this race, though — not this poor, but fairly close to his numbers among whites.

Not only that, but Larry Elder, a libertarian republican, leads the pack to replace him. It would be so strange to have a man of his ideology govern friggin' California in the post-Trump era.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

It would be hilarious if CA-GOV 2021 ended up being Biden's MA-SEN 2010/AL-SEN 2017, but I don’t see it happening. I do buy Newson's exceptionally weak numbers among Hispanics in this race, though — not this poor, but fairly close to his numbers among whites.

Not only that, but Larry Elder, a libertarian republican, leads the pack to replace him. It would be so strange to have a man of his ideology govern friggin' California in the post-Trump era.

Even though he will be able to do jack, I kinda agree. It'll be a huge rallying cry for the GOP base come the midterms while the Dem base will be in complete denial and shock, believing Elder stole the election or that it was just a fluke.

[MT Treasurer]

It would be hilarious if CA-GOV 2021 ended up being Biden's MA-SEN 2010/AL-SEN 2017, but I don’t see it happening. I do buy Newson's exceptionally weak numbers among Hispanics in this race, though — not this poor, but fairly close to his numbers among whites.

Not only that, but Larry Elder, a libertarian republican, leads the pack to replace him. It would be so strange to have a man of his ideology govern friggin' California in the post-Trump era.

Even though he will be able to do jack, I kinda agree. It'll be a huge rallying cry for the GOP base come the midterms while the Dem base will be in complete denial and shock, believing Elder stole the election or that it was just a fluke.

Republicans flipping CA while losing VA would add a whole new dimension to the "Stop acting like VA is CA" comments. It’s insane how many candidates there are on the ballot for the Replacement question, though — imagine how long it would take for an official result if they were using RCV.



Why is Elder leading the field, though? Is it mostly a name recognition thing/anti-establishment sentiment? Also, isn’t it more likely than not that Democrats will aggressively consolidate around one replacement option (while still encouraging voters to vote NO on the recall, obviously)?

[Huey Long is a Republican]

It would be hilarious if CA-GOV 2021 ended up being Biden's MA-SEN 2010/AL-SEN 2017, but I don’t see it happening. I do buy Newson's exceptionally weak numbers among Hispanics in this race, though — not this poor, but fairly close to his numbers among whites.

Not only that, but Larry Elder, a libertarian republican, leads the pack to replace him. It would be so strange to have a man of his ideology govern friggin' California in the post-Trump era.

Even though he will be able to do jack, I kinda agree. It'll be a huge rallying cry for the GOP base come the midterms while the Dem base will be in complete denial and shock, believing Elder stole the election or that it was just a fluke.

Republicans flipping CA while losing VA would add a whole new dimension to the "Stop acting like VA is CA" comments. It’s insane how many candidates there are on the ballot for the Replacement question, though — imagine how long it would take for an official result if they were using RCV.



Why is Elder leading the field, though? Is it mostly a name recognition thing/anti-establishment sentiment? Also, isn’t it more likely than not that Democrats will aggressively consolidate around one replacement option (while still encouraging voters to vote NO on the recall, obviously)?

Several reasons :

1) Jenner being anti-Trump soured on any potential supporters she'd have mainstream.

2) Falconer, while the best candidate to lead a revival of the GOP in CA, isn't what the base wants to be their governor candidate.

3) Cox failed already against Newsom and without the Trump Endorsement, he's of pretty an ignored factor

4) Elder, iirc, had a successful lawsuit that led to him being in the news a lot.

5) Boomers thinking a black person will get black people to vote for them.

There may be a few more reasons, but those are the obvious ones, I think. If Elder doesn't win, I'd be happy with Paffrath or Falconer though.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

TL;DR: If you're a Democrat in California--regardless of how you vote on question 1--you need to vote Faulconer on question 2. Leaving that blank could create allow for a much, much worse outcome.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

TL;DR: If you're a Democrat in California--regardless of how you vote on question 1--you need to vote Faulconer on question 2. Leaving that blank could create allow for a much, much worse outcome.

Ugh, I really don’t want to vote for a Republican, but ugh. I fear that you might have a point. I’d rather have Falcouner than Elder, that’s for damn sure.

[DrScholl]

Democrats have sufficient numbers in the legislature to impeach a replacement, so even if the recall goes through I can't see a Republican lasting very long in the office. Elder gives me very crooked vibes so I think Democrats could find something to impeach him over.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

TL;DR: If you're a Democrat in California--regardless of how you vote on question 1--you need to vote Faulconer on question 2. Leaving that blank could create allow for a much, much worse outcome.

Ugh, I really don’t want to vote for a Republican, but ugh. I fear that you might have a point. I’d rather have Falcouner than Elder, that’s for damn sure.

Yeah and apparently Paffrath isn't that good. IIRC his YouTube makes some... really bordering on illegal advice about obscuring information from tenants.

Ugh

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

TL;DR: If you're a Democrat in California--regardless of how you vote on question 1--you need to vote Faulconer on question 2. Leaving that blank could create allow for a much, much worse outcome.

Ugh, I really don’t want to vote for a Republican, but ugh. I fear that you might have a point. I’d rather have Falcouner than Elder, that’s for damn sure.

Yeah and apparently Paffrath isn't that good. IIRC his YouTube makes some... really bordering on illegal advice about obscuring information from tenants.

Ugh

Yeah, wasn’t even considering Kevin #3 once I found that he’s a militant Person of Land. I was thinking of just picking one of the randos or maybe Angelyne lol. But I’ll probably vote Kevin #1 at this point. I’m not voting for Kevin #2, whose number gives you an idea of what kind of job I think he’s been doing as my local assemblyman.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

It would be hilarious if CA-GOV 2021 ended up being Biden's MA-SEN 2010/AL-SEN 2017, but I don’t see it happening. I do buy Newson's exceptionally weak numbers among Hispanics in this race, though — not this poor, but fairly close to his numbers among whites.

Not only that, but Larry Elder, a libertarian republican, leads the pack to replace him. It would be so strange to have a man of his ideology govern friggin' California in the post-Trump era.

Even though he will be able to do jack, I kinda agree. It'll be a huge rallying cry for the GOP base come the midterms while the Dem base will be in complete denial and shock, believing Elder stole the election or that it was just a fluke.

snip
Why is Elder leading the field, though? Is it mostly a name recognition thing/anti-establishment sentiment? Also, isn’t it more likely than not that Democrats will aggressively consolidate around one replacement option (while still encouraging voters to vote NO on the recall, obviously)?

Larry is massive in the LA conservative movement, and has been for longer than I've been alive. He's familiar with every republican left here.

[brucejoel99]

It’s insane how many candidates there are on the ballot for the Replacement question, though — imagine how long it would take for an official result if they were using RCV.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c6/Sample_ballot_for_CA_recall.png

That's actually the ballot from 2003, which saw 135 candidates qualify for the replacement ballot. Thankfully, 2021 only saw 46 candidates qualify, which is still a sh*tton, but still a number that at least makes for a (somewhat) better ballot:

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not worried about this recall since Larry Elder said minimum wage should be zero

[THG]

This might be way closer than expected.

[Sir Mohamed]

> Memerson

That said, recent polling is kind of worrisome. Of course the biggest danger is for Dems to get negligent and assume Newsom's survival is a certain thing because CA is a Biden +30 state. In a low turnout election and the simple question whether you want to keep the incumbent or not without one (less appealing) alternative, the final result may get closer than we'd like. A single digit "win" would be disappointing, tbh.

Even if the <1% chance the recall succeeds, I hardly see a GOP gov survive the next regular election in 2022.

[Former President tack50]

TL;DR: If you're a Democrat in California--regardless of how you vote on question 1--you need to vote Faulconer on question 2. Leaving that blank could create allow for a much, much worse outcome.

Why aren't Democrats running any sort of relevant candidate for Question 2 though? Even if it was just as insurance, some low ranking anonymous Democrat probably beats a Republican governor?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

TL;DR: If you're a Democrat in California--regardless of how you vote on question 1--you need to vote Faulconer on question 2. Leaving that blank could create allow for a much, much worse outcome.

Why aren't Democrats running any sort of relevant candidate for Question 2 though? Even if it was just as insurance, some low ranking anonymous Democrat probably beats a Republican governor?

Because the Dem strategists took a massive gamble on a flawed governor.

[Progressive Pessimist]

TL;DR: If you're a Democrat in California--regardless of how you vote on question 1--you need to vote Faulconer on question 2. Leaving that blank could create allow for a much, much worse outcome.

Why aren't Democrats running any sort of relevant candidate for Question 2 though? Even if it was just as insurance, some low ranking anonymous Democrat probably beats a Republican governor?

Because the Dem strategists took a massive gamble on a flawed governor.

Newsom has definitely been a disappointment, and the person who should be most disappointed in him is himself. It's pretty clear that he always had higher aspirations, like the presidency down the line, but that's all out the window now.

Still, is he bad enough where he should be replaced? I don't believe so, and hopefully most Californians don't think so either even if he is merely tolerated at best.