If the EC were abolished, how would the Republicans win?
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November 29, 2021, 04:35:36 PM

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  If the EC were abolished, how would the Republicans win?
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Author Topic: If the EC were abolished, how would the Republicans win?  (Read 11128 times)
Kingpoleon
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« Reply #50 on: November 11, 2020, 02:59:35 PM »

Move to the middle.  Have a nominally pro-life platform but mostly do nothing about abortion, ala Tories in the UK and Canada.  Speak out against things like Drag Queen Story Hour but support bills like the Equality Act.  Support private insurance with a public option.  Etc.
I love how social conservatives though anyone would change their vote because liberal parents organized a liberal, feel good thing in a public library, which they would have... refused to permit?
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Vice President Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #51 on: November 11, 2020, 04:35:46 PM »

Aim for Hispanics. Yes, this is feasible with a generation or two between now and then. Look at how fast Democrats abandoned my community's issues after the 2016 dust settled- there's a reason Mexican-Americans suddenly went hard Sanders in the primaries. Of course Republicans would lose the white working class in the sticks, and they would suffer for it in the short term, but they're a shrinking group anyway- worst case scenario, they'll either stay home or join an unhappy Democratic coalition.

In any case, the imperative becomes reaching out more to the populous states. That means the Sun Belt, and that means minority outreach, whatever platform would be necessary to achieve that.

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Anaphylactic-Statism
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« Reply #52 on: November 11, 2020, 05:37:41 PM »

Aim for Hispanics. Yes, this is feasible with a generation or two between now and then. Look at how fast Democrats abandoned my community's issues after the 2016 dust settled- there's a reason Mexican-Americans suddenly went hard Sanders in the primaries. Of course Republicans would lose the white working class in the sticks, and they would suffer for it in the short term, but they're a shrinking group anyway- worst case scenario, they'll either stay home or join an unhappy Democratic coalition.

In any case, the imperative becomes reaching out more to the populous states. That means the Sun Belt, and that means minority outreach, whatever platform would be necessary to achieve that.

You have now earned your accolades.

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EastwoodS
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« Reply #53 on: November 30, 2020, 11:18:24 PM »

Remember that as recently as 2012, people were saying the EC favored Democrats. This could easily be the case in 10 years when states like AZ and GA become D - leaning, and Texas is a tossup.

Yes, the EC has recently favored Democrats and that will in all likelihood be even more so the case (in a lopsided manner) going forward imo.
Um, not if Republicans Increase their Hispanics support, which will happen going forward ...
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The Mikado
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« Reply #54 on: December 01, 2020, 06:08:34 PM »

I suspect a national popular vote system would give rise to a semi-viable third party. Whatever party ended up closest to the centre (likely the Democratic Party) would end up embracing that position and welcoming folks from the leftmost flanks of the GOP. As such, Democrats would become "the natural governing party," but Republican presidential candidates would also have a decent chance of winning due to vote splits, especially when there's fatigue towards incumbent Democratic leadership and left-wing voters don't really know where to go to keep the Republican out of office.

I don't think it'd produce "viable" third parties, but it would lead to much stronger spoilers.

IMO a Top Two Runoff or IRV (I prefer the former just because it guarantees a majority winner without the confusion of IRV) would be better than a straight plurality winner. And Top Two Runoff would be great for third parties! Everyone would hang on the endorsements of people who didn't make the runoff.

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Pres Mike
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« Reply #55 on: August 11, 2021, 09:51:02 PM »

I don't think Republicans would be doomed

Trump got 74 million votes. Everyone would say that was impossible four years for a Democrat, much less a Republican. That doesn't inculde the Lincoln Republicans/Wine Moms who voted for Biden out of disgust for Trump

A George W. Bush figure that could excite the base and win the suburbs could win the popular vote, just like 2004

Hot Take: This would proabably benfit Democrats but it could just as easily hurt. Democrats are more likely to vote thrird party
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its_gi_brown
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« Reply #56 on: August 24, 2021, 07:02:23 PM »

They would adapt, very fast. I've seen a few people living in this fantasy land where the electoral college is abolished and no republican wins ever again, but this would not happen. Expect the Republicans to change their game plan and adapt to win over more moderates and independents. It wouldn't change much about the rate at which Dems or Republicans win, but expect a lot more effort out of both of them to win over every vote as opposed to just visiting swing states. Both parties would probably moderate their stances heavily, I think.
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The Roc Pile
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« Reply #57 on: August 25, 2021, 06:05:34 PM »

Does EC abolition come with FPTP abolition for House representation? If so, fragmentation of the Democratic party into a the more neoliberal/hawkish wing and the progressive wing. A few never-Trumpers would break off too, however the conservative base would have the advantage in any negotiations regarding a coalition.


As for winning it in a two party system? By selling guns, fireworks, beer, and ammo on a riverboat up and down the Mississippi to anyone who can read a ballot.
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JD Vance For Senate
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« Reply #58 on: August 25, 2021, 08:18:10 PM »

They'd have to move left on economics and  deemphasize and/or offer a moderate solution to social/"woke" issues, while caring about the problems that impact minorities. Presenting themselves as a moderate alternative to the Dems like what The GOP did during the '30s/'40s would be the only way to win at this point, barring a devastating administration ala. Truman-style or an extremely popular GOP nominee. I cannot think of a GOP nominee right now who would win based off of bipartisan popularity  (not even someone like Romney or Cheney), but I'm sure they'll be someone someday.
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« Reply #59 on: August 25, 2021, 11:54:25 PM »

They'd have to move left on economics and  deemphasize and/or offer a moderate solution to social/"woke" issues, while caring about the problems that impact minorities. Presenting themselves as a moderate alternative to the Dems like what The GOP did during the '30s/'40s would be the only way to win at this point, barring a devastating administration ala. Truman-style or an extremely popular GOP nominee. I cannot think of a GOP nominee right now who would win based off of bipartisan popularity  (not even someone like Romney or Cheney), but I'm sure they'll be someone someday.

If the election was held today I think a few would but they wouldn't after a whole campaign of attacks.
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JD Vance For Senate
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« Reply #60 on: August 26, 2021, 03:21:10 PM »

They'd have to move left on economics and  deemphasize and/or offer a moderate solution to social/"woke" issues, while caring about the problems that impact minorities. Presenting themselves as a moderate alternative to the Dems like what The GOP did during the '30s/'40s would be the only way to win at this point, barring a devastating administration ala. Truman-style or an extremely popular GOP nominee. I cannot think of a GOP nominee right now who would win based off of bipartisan popularity  (not even someone like Romney or Cheney), but I'm sure they'll be someone someday.

If the election was held today I think a few would but they wouldn't after a whole campaign of attacks.

Absolutely, I don't think it would be immediate, but I think after losing the W.H. at least three times, they'll likely moderate. I have a feeling if Trump lost to HRC, they would've reverted back to the 2013 memo and run someone like Hogan or Kasich who while conservative, can appeal to moderates who normally vote Dem. If they still lose in 2020, they'll probably try running someone like Baker or Scott and if they still couldn't win in 2024, they'd look at where they went wrong and re-evaluate by 2028, likely following my suggestion until they can expand their base enough to win and then going from there. Conservatism might return to the party eventually as it did under Reagan, but I wouldn't of counted on it until they became competitive again, which might've taken a number of decades.
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« Reply #61 on: August 26, 2021, 04:01:31 PM »

They'd have to move left on economics and  deemphasize and/or offer a moderate solution to social/"woke" issues, while caring about the problems that impact minorities. Presenting themselves as a moderate alternative to the Dems like what The GOP did during the '30s/'40s would be the only way to win at this point, barring a devastating administration ala. Truman-style or an extremely popular GOP nominee. I cannot think of a GOP nominee right now who would win based off of bipartisan popularity  (not even someone like Romney or Cheney), but I'm sure they'll be someone someday.

If the election was held today I think a few would but they wouldn't after a whole campaign of attacks.

Absolutely, I don't think it would be immediate, but I think after losing the W.H. at least three times, they'll likely moderate. I have a feeling if Trump lost to HRC, they would've reverted back to the 2013 memo and run someone like Hogan or Kasich who while conservative, can appeal to moderates who normally vote Dem. If they still lose in 2020, they'll probably try running someone like Baker or Scott and if they still couldn't win in 2024, they'd look at where they went wrong and re-evaluate by 2028, likely following my suggestion until they can expand their base enough to win and then going from there. Conservatism might return to the party eventually as it did under Reagan, but I wouldn't of counted on it until they became competitive again, which might've taken a number of decades.

Yep.

For instance, Liz Cheney would win an election if it was held today. If it was held six months from now with a full campaign of attack ads pointing out her voting with Trump 98% of the time she'd lose.
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The Pieman
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« Reply #62 on: August 26, 2021, 07:19:21 PM »

Of course, you could get a 2004 type victory if things went just right. Imagine an AOC type candidate against a more “normal” Republican who is a bit more moderate.
Someone like Romney would crush AOC in a hypothetical matchup
No lol. Romney wouldn't turn out the base, which is literally all that will matter in a world where the EC is abolished.
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The Pieman
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« Reply #63 on: August 26, 2021, 07:22:41 PM »

In a world where the EC is abolished, both parties would try and get as much turnout from safe states/their base as they can (the easiest way to get more votes). Both parties would become more extreme, not less.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #64 on: September 03, 2021, 06:16:18 PM »

By *gasp* adapting!
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #65 on: September 08, 2021, 10:46:02 AM »

Hate to say, Trump may have won the popular vote in 2016 if it wasn't for the p''''' tape
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President Johnson
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« Reply #66 on: September 08, 2021, 02:23:12 PM »

Hate to say, Trump may have won the popular vote in 2016 if it wasn't for the p''''' tape

Doubtful. Where are the three million additional votes coming from?
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #67 on: September 08, 2021, 09:29:51 PM »

Hate to say, Trump may have won the popular vote in 2016 if it wasn't for the p''''' tape

Doubtful. Where are the three million additional votes coming from?

Well it would only take 1.5 million really but some other ways is it causes republicans who stayed home cause of that to vote and some of Johnson/McMullin voters to go to Trump as well .


Imo the Access Hollywood tape cost Trump around 2.5 points and Comey letter cost Hillary around 1/5-2. I think without either Trump probably doenst take MI but he takes MN and NH
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #68 on: September 15, 2021, 11:37:58 PM »

They can't without a major realignment or Democrats pushing way way too far.  It's not just that they lose the popular vote every time, it's that Dems could go into safe states and juice turnout in big cities even more.  There are only so many more votes the GOP can pull out of safe and semi-populated states like TN/KY/MO/IN etc.  Dems leave a lot more on the table in NY/CA.
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NotSoLucky
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« Reply #69 on: September 23, 2021, 01:29:08 PM »

Speak out against things like Drag Queen Story Hour but support bills like the Equality Act.

Fundamentalist christians and extreme social conservatives don't see or understand the difference between the two, anything involving "transgenderism" is bad according to them. And the republican party has to agree with them. The fall of the Soviet union meant that Republicans couldn't depend on "red scare fears" to win over white suburbia anymore, so the GOP chose to double down on White evangelicals.
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NotSoLucky
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« Reply #70 on: September 23, 2021, 01:36:04 PM »

Hate to say, Trump may have won the popular vote in 2016 if it wasn't for the p''''' tape

Doubtful. Where are the three million additional votes coming from?
Republican and conservative women probably. Though I'm not sure that would be enough
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NotSoLucky
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« Reply #71 on: September 23, 2021, 01:52:36 PM »

It would be tough. Going moderate like many advocate on here wouldn’t work as any gain from Kasich supporting crowd will be offset by those further right who just give up on voting outright. Options going forward would be:

1. Republicans will either become junior party that occasionally puts check on left moving too fast, but never controlling all branches of government (like New England politics currently). Win 1 out 5 presidential elections at most and stay legislative minority.

2. The winning strategy is full populist (Fiscal left/social conservative). Fiscal conservatives are dying breed in electorate until the federal government or a large state government goes BK.

The  GOP would abandon fiscal conservatism in its official platform (already have in practice) and run to the left of Democrats on economic policy/safety net (adopt more generous version Yang’s UBI, medicare for all citizens, higher tariffs, higher taxes on the rich, etc.) while maintaining social conservative views. This would win over both white and minority working classes at the expense of losing libertarians and upper middle class professionals who are already trending Democrat. GOP would also have to work closer and drop hostility towards organized labor. This would be winning ticket, but also equal the death of American conservatism.

I broadly agree with this point of view, and it dovetails nicely with many of my own views, but I'm not sure the GOP will be able to afford to simply give up on libertarians and the upper middle class entirely, especially if the Democratic Party continues on a hard-SJW trajectory. I'm also not sure people would accept the GOP simply dumping its entire economic plank entirely overnight.

My personal belief is that the path forward for the GOP is to do several things:

1) Preserve the socially conservative views essential to the party's base: abortion, gun rights, immigration, free speech, and identity politics. Jettison opposition to marijuana and perhaps rethink parts of the drug war.

2) Promote themselves as a humanistic, patriotic alternative to the Dems. Whereas the Dems believe humanity is inherently stained by racism, sexism, harming the planet, etc., the GOP must stand on the power of human ingenuity and compassion to solve problems and bridge divides, regardless of race, sex, etc. If the left stands on the inherent sin of humanity, the right must stand on its virtue.

2a) Co-opt climate change as a real and pressing issue not to be solved by higher taxes, lower birth rates, and social liberalism but by aggressive innovation and science. Similarly, the right must become more willing to embrace science and experts insofar as they deserve to be trusted by their merits; put another way, be skeptical of science from within a scientific framework, not simply reject it out of hand as if by ad hominem.

3) Become highly economically nationalistic and community-centric -- perhaps framed as "economic patriotism" -- which includes support for a UBI (perhaps while also overhauling traditional welfare programs) and other economically-sound policies. Perhaps reframe from "smaller government" to "better government" or "smarter government" or "government for Americans".

4) Actively stand against unchecked corporate power which undermines American values, reduces privacy through surveillance, and harms American consumers and markets through monopolistic tendencies.

At least, this is what I would try to do if I where running for office.
This sounds interesting, and I think this could win over some democrats. But I don't see this happening until Trump is out of the picture, as the Trump republican party seems to be doubling down on "Stop the Steal" and Vaccine hesitancy. They have not shed the Reagan era deficit hawk mindset. Nor have they proposed any alternatives to the PRO act or the infrastructure deal.

While Trump himself sometimes broke from the Reagan sh**t, it was only when it was potentially politically benefitial for him to do so, so that he could stroke his massive ego even more. Which is how he went from passing the biggest government stimulus package in history, to later complaining about how Biden's stimulus package was a "socialist Blue state giveaway".
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GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #72 on: September 28, 2021, 04:32:49 PM »

Hate to say, Trump may have won the popular vote in 2016 if it wasn't for the p''''' tape

Doubtful. Where are the three million additional votes coming from?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #73 on: November 12, 2021, 07:53:00 PM »

The 2020 Hispanic trend shows how it would be possible.
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