When on election night did you realize the rust belt trio would be close again?

[Tekken_Guy]

When during election night did you first realize that the Rust Belt Trio would be close again and not the Biden blowout the polls indicated?

[ProgressiveModerate]

It was just confusing for a long while, because at first it really seemed as if such a wide range of outcomes were possible. However when neither of the 3 states were called by late evening, I started realize they were almost gonna be on razor edges, especially seeing in the states that were done that shifts were pretty mixed and minimal.

[sguberman]

didn't the exit polls actually show Biden was doing pretty well in the Midwest I think he was up by 8 in Wisconsin 4 in Pennsylvania and he was up a point in Iowa down by six in Ohio which was better than what how he actually lost by.

[Crumpets]

I went to sleep thinking the Rust Belt was actually pretty set for Biden and the biggest warning signs were in the Sunbelt following the Florida drop. When I woke up and saw that Ohio had been called for Trump, Minnesota had been called for Biden, and the "big three" were still uncalled, it looked like it'd be close, but a quick survey of where things stood made it pretty clear Biden was favored in all of them.

[SInNYC]

Pretty early.
I went to sleep thinking Biden had probably lost. Although I knew late votes were likely to favor Biden, I thought the Trump margins in PA/etc were too big to overcome.

The Hispanic vote outside the rust belt also did not help, since it would imply some loss in parts of the rust belt. But to me, the big positive of the night for Biden was the huge shift in Omaha, obviously not for its one electoral vote but for what it might say about the rest of the upper midwest.

[Pres Mike]

Florida was lost, that was clear early on. Worst few hours of my life, I thought Trump was winning. Than Biden came on TV around 2am and said his team was confident about WI and MI AND Georgia! Plus FOX called Arizona and NE-2 for Biden. Along with how calm CNN anchors were, I realized around 5am that Biden would narrowly win the rust belt trio

[Minnesota Mike]

Pennsylvania and Michigan were impossible to get a handle on until the next day, It was impossible to model with the huge split on how people voted. It was apparent early Wisconsin would be close but knowing the city of Milwaukee's absentee votes would be dumped all at once and looking at results in completed counties I felt pretty confident Biden was going to win Wisconsin by about midnight when Biden cut the lead down to a little over 100K. With Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada and NE-02 all looking good for Biden (270 yeah) I was confident Biden would win when I went to bed at around 5:00. Turns out Arizona and Nevada were not as cut and dried as they seemed but that is another story.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I went to sleep thinking the Rust Belt was actually pretty set for Biden and the biggest warning signs were in the Sunbelt following the Florida drop. When I woke up and saw that Ohio had been called for Trump, Minnesota had been called for Biden, and the "big three" were still uncalled, it looked like it'd be close, but a quick survey of where things stood made it pretty clear Biden was favored in all of them.

Nate Silver wrote an article about PA a few days before the election. He said that Trump could be ahead on election night by 15% due to the mail in ballots being counted last, but Biden would scrape ahead as the days went on. I laughed Nate Silver off, as I assumed PA would be a big Biden landslide

[pbrower2a]

... when Trump started with substantial leads, mostly from rural precincts that count votes quickly. Contrast 2008, when the states had bare majorities for Obama early... and the vote had yet to come in in big numbers from Detroit, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Madison, and Milwaukee.

I expected high single digits from those three states.