Why Dems have (mostly) recovered from 2010

[ProgressiveModerate]

A popular narrative on this website has been about how 2010 cursed the Democrats, particularly in state legislative elections and redistricting for this decade and had great influence in the control Republicans will have over redistricting in many places now

NC and PA who were 2 of the biggest offenders in state House and Senate maps were fixed through courts. NC will prolly go back to being a GOP mander at all levels but Democrats actually have an advantage when it comes to state legislative redistricting in PA due to the left leaning SC choosing a 5ht member to the political commission.

I don't think Democrats would've flipped the MI or WI legistlature regardless because of geography and the general overperformance of downballot Rs. MI now uses a commission anyways and Dems will have significant leverage in WI.

Even if 2010 was a half decent year for Dems, the GOP was always going to have redistricting control in now competative states like GA and TX, and the GOP pretty much had an iron fist on the FL legistlature regardless. Dems have a pretty sizeable geography advantage in TX meaning there's only so much the GOP can do with redistricting in the State House

VA and WA would've flipped regardless, maybe sooner though

Democrats loosing both chambers of the NH legistlature in 2020 really wasn't a result of gerrymanders

Every other state where the GOP currently has control and where they drew the maps in 2010 is likely gone for Democrats anyways, so the only thing redistricting affects is the overall House picture and whether or not they could block the GOP from a supermajority in a few case.

I really can't think of a single state legistlature that would've had an overall different outcome in 2020 had 2010 been a more neutral year. Maybe Republicans majority might be smaller in a few places but that's about it.

I'm not trying to say 2010 didn't have an impact on our politics; it clearly did, but I think this narrative that the 2010 elections has been the soul reason Democrats have been "locked" out of winning certain state legistlature isn't as true as this forum often makes it out to be.

[Mr.Phips]

A popular narrative on this website has been about how 2010 cursed the Democrats, particularly in state legislative elections and redistricting for this decade and had great influence in the control Republicans will have over redistricting in many places now

NC and PA who were 2 of the biggest offenders in state House and Senate maps were fixed through courts. NC will prolly go back to being a GOP mander at all levels but Democrats actually have an advantage when it comes to state legislative redistricting in PA due to the left leaning SC choosing a 5ht member to the political commission.

I don't think Democrats would've flipped the MI or WI legistlature regardless because of geography and the general overperformance of downballot Rs. MI now uses a commission anyways and Dems will have significant leverage in WI.

Even if 2010 was a half decent year for Dems, the GOP was always going to have redistricting control in now competative states like GA and TX, and the GOP pretty much had an iron fist on the FL legistlature regardless. Dems have a pretty sizeable geography advantage in TX meaning there's only so much the GOP can do with redistricting in the State House

VA and WA would've flipped regardless, maybe sooner though

Democrats loosing both chambers of the NH legistlature in 2020 really wasn't a result of gerrymanders

Every other state where the GOP currently has control and where they drew the maps in 2010 is likely gone for Democrats anyways, so the only thing redistricting affects is the overall House picture and whether or not they could block the GOP from a supermajority in a few case.

I really can't think of a single state legistlature that would've had an overall different outcome in 2020 had 2010 been a more neutral year. Maybe Republicans majority might be smaller in a few places but that's about it.

I'm not trying to say 2010 didn't have an impact on our politics; it clearly did, but I think this narrative that the 2010 elections has been the soul reason Democrats have been "locked" out of winning certain state legistlature isn't as true as this forum often makes it out to be.

I think Dems would have won the Michigan House in 2012, 2018 (maybe even the state senate that year)  and 2020 with fair maps.  They were only four seats short of a tie in those years even with the Republican gerrymander. 

Dems really got screwed long term by 2010 in NC.  Had they passed nonpartisan redistricting prior to that election (polls as early as spring had them losing both chambers), they would have had fair maps going forward and Dems would have had at least two more House seats throughout the 2010s and going forward.

[Non Swing Voter]

I feel like people here underestimate how much the GOP is living on the life support of gerrymandering, restrictive voting measures, and packing the courts.  Even with all of that they still aren't doing all that well.  If all three of these elements ceased to exist the GOP in its current form would not be a national party but for occasionally winning the senate because it's essentially a natural GOP gerrymander.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like people here underestimate how much the GOP is living on the life support of gerrymandering, restrictive voting measures, and packing the courts.  Even with all of that they still aren't doing all that well.  If all three of these elements ceased to exist the GOP in its current form would not be a national party but for occasionally winning the senate because it's essentially a natural GOP gerrymander.

I would argue a lot of it is fortunate political geography at this point in time. The fact that you have FL OH and TX all vote ~10 points to the right of the nation, and the small state advantage in the senate. Even in state legislatures, Democrats benefit from political geography overall, but the GOP has it in virtually every swing state outside NV, AZ, and TX.

As for the House, that was a large part because of redistricting control last cycle, but now it’s far more balanced.