How will New York City swing in 2024?

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1334134534661672968

[Bootes Void]

Does it really matter?

Anyways it will stay the same % or so maybe some coalition shifts

[NewYorkExpress]

Trump doesn't lose a precinct in Staten Island but outside of winning Haredim (modern Orthodox Jews will vote for Biden...but they won't vote for Harris if she's the nominee), Biden (or Harris) cleans house with 75-90% of the vote in the other 4 boroughs.

[Orwell]

Trump doesn't lose a precinct in Staten Island but outside of winning Haredim (modern Orthodox Jews will vote for Biden...but they won't vote for Harris if she's the nominee), Biden (or Harris) cleans house with 75-90% of the vote in the other 4 boroughs.

There are over a dozen precients on Staten Island Biden not 80+% of the vote though

[THG]

I would imagine it would stay the same or swing slightly Republican due to improvements with those aforementioned demographics.

[Suburbia]

The Republican does a little better in NYC, holding Dems to 70%-80%.....Republicans do better in Black and mixed areas like Canarsie

[Sol]

A lot of it depends on Latino voters tbh--the strongest swings to Trump were among them, excluding Haredim.

I'm fairly optimistic about the ability of Dems to win over Obama-Clinton-Trump Latino voters, but that seems particularly plausible in NYC, especially given the Biden admin's strong redistributionist policies.

[Chips]

If I had to guess, it will swing to the Dems extremely narrowly.

[neostassenite31]

It will swing to the left by a significant margin and pull the entire state with it.

Just look at what happened in 2004, 2012, and 2020 when incumbents were running for reelection and note how NYC swung toward them.

[Fuzzy Bear]

If crime continues to go unchecked, there will be a continuing exodus of middle class people from New York City of all races.  New York City is not a safe place today.  People who can move from an unsafe place to a safe place do so.  The damage to the city that Bill DeBlasio has done is worse than any Mayor before him; worse than John Lindsay, worse than Jimmy Walker. 

[West_Midlander]

2004 isn't that long ago. Also, I would say that it doesn't really matter since NY state is deep blue in any feasible scenario.

[Schiff for Senate]

NYC will be safe Democratic and so will NY. The margins don't matter after that on the outcome of the race. But if I had to guess I'd say it won't swing too much in either direction, though if it had to shift probably slightly toward the Democrats.

[TwinGeeks99]

I would predict that it swings blue, as it is simply a reversion to the mean + incumbency effect.

[Telesquare]

Slightly R but it’s meaningless.