Will Oregon/Washington vote to the left of California in the near future?

[THG]

I think it is possible, simply because of Multomoah/King County’s rapid growth and leftward trend, and the fact that California has countervailing trends and actually trended right for the first time in years- whereas WA/OR have trended heavily leftward and have showed no signs of stopping (similar to California from 2004 to 2016).

Both PNW states are also receiving the most liberal transplants from CA, and are much more socially liberal than CA outside of the Bay Area (and even then, the Bay is probably not as liberal as Portland, and certainly not Seattle).

I believe that Washington will vote to the left of California in 2028, and possibly Oregon will do so by the mid 2030’s.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Both PNW states are also receiving the most liberal transplants from CA, and are much more socially liberal than CA outside of the Bay Area (and even then, the Bay is probably not as liberal as Portland, and certainly not Seattle).

Wut

I can’t see either state voting to the left of CA in at least the next 2-3 cycles. There are just too many Anglo white folks in WA and OR for that, especially outside of Metro PDX and Metro SEA. But I can’t see any R presidential candidate winning either state during that time frame either.

[TDAS04]

Highly unlikely.  Washington and Oregon are much whiter and more rural.

California also swung right in 2004, and the PNW swung left, but all three states have continued to trend leftward--California at the fastest pace.

[THG]

Both PNW states are also receiving the most liberal transplants from CA, and are much more socially liberal than CA outside of the Bay Area (and even then, the Bay is probably not as liberal as Portland, and certainly not Seattle).

Wut

I can’t see either state voting to the left of CA in at least the next 2-3 cycles. There are just too many Anglo white folks in WA and OR for that, especially outside of Metro PDX and Metro SEA. But I can’t see any R presidential candidate winning either state during that time frame either.

Seattle is arguably the most liberal city in the US, outside of DC maybe. Portland isn't too far behind either.

I have a hunch that the growth of the Portland and Seattle metros (and influx of Bay Area liberals into there) will swing the PNW into being D+20 states for the foreseeable future, whereas California may or may not be maxed out for Dems at this point.

Does that sound more reasonable?

[Nyvin]

Almost certainly not for Oregon. There’s a big chunk of the state that’s VERY conservative and Portland actually isn’t all that big.

[Make America Grumpy Again]

Dems have room to fall statewide in WA, particularly in the areas of the state along the coast with declining unionization. Many of these areas voted for Trump after staying loyal to the Dems since FDR. Even if Seattle grows slightly, I think Washington will stay the same or budge slightly to the right over the next decade.

When it comes to Oregon, I think that Portland has maxed out, although Dems still have room to grow in the suburbs as well as along the coast, so Oregon will likely continue to lean left, although it will look more like a New York than a California. At the same time, if Portland begins to trend to the GOP by a certain percentage, it could make the state more competitive, considering the conservative-lean of most of the state.

Even if Dems max out around San Francisco and retake counties such as Lake County, I anticipate the Santa Barbara-San Diego area would look a lot like the Northeast Megalopolis and it wouldn't surprise me if Dems are able to gain at least 10% between LA and San Diego, especially in Orange County due to explosive growth by the middle of the next decade. LA will likely look like San Francisco, Orange County will give Dems >60% and San Diego will likely look like LA. Demographic trends by transplants and younger voters, particularly in the cities overwhelmingly favor Dems. Even if Dems max out in some rural areas over the next decade, I don't anticipate the GOP to be competitive in California for a long time, especially helped by many GOPers moving out of state.

[Schiff for Senate]

Both PNW states are also receiving the most liberal transplants from CA, and are much more socially liberal than CA outside of the Bay Area (and even then, the Bay is probably not as liberal as Portland, and certainly not Seattle).

Wut

I can’t see either state voting to the left of CA in at least the next 2-3 cycles. There are just too many Anglo white folks in WA and OR for that, especially outside of Metro PDX and Metro SEA. But I can’t see any R presidential candidate winning either state during that time frame either.

Seattle is arguably the most liberal city in the US, outside of DC maybe. Portland isn't too far behind either.

I have a hunch that the growth of the Portland and Seattle metros (and influx of Bay Area liberals into there) will swing the PNW into being D+20 states for the foreseeable future, whereas California may or may not be maxed out for Dems at this point.

Does that sound more reasonable?

Yes, that much is quite plausible.

[Xing]

No, but I’m glad to see that the conventional wisdom about the states being future Republican states (“they’ll trend R any day now!”) falling out of style. Both states will continue trending D, but won’t reach CA levels of Democratic support.

[THG]

No, but I’m glad to see that the conventional wisdom about the states being future Republican states (“they’ll trend R any day now!”) falling out of style. Both states will continue trending D, but won’t reach CA levels of Democratic support.

I could have possibly seen that argument for Oregon years ago, but Washington is de-facto unwinnable due to Seattle alone.

[NOVA Green]

Interesting and somewhat provocative thread title, since although it runs counter to both the standard political CW (as well as the Atlas CW) all three States are going through significant demographic changes where the overall composition of the electorate might well look significantly different in 2032 or 2036.

Assuming that the current political alignments and party social demographic base composition remain relatively intact from the '16 / '20 presidential coalitions (Which is a big *IF*), theoretically the Democrats would continue to see growth in their overall vote share in ALL three states.

1.) The youngest voter age cohorts in the 2020 GE PRES election were the most Democratic at a National Level, as well as likely within WA, OR, and CA.

At this point there is no real evidence to suggest that voters coming of age for the next GE PRES cycle in 2024 or the following (2028) will exhibit significantly different partisan voting patterns.

The much mooted scenario of Gen Z voters demonstrating an increased propensity to support PUBs over the Millennial Gen was pretty much shot down after the 2020 GE ED, despite many fervent promoters and boosters of this on Atlas, as well as elsewhere.

https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2020/05/14/on-the-cusp-of-adulthood-and-facing-an-uncertain-future-what-we-know-about-gen-z-so-far-2/

2.) I believe there is a fairly conclusive amount of supporting Political Science research over the decades which supports the concept that generally partisan affiliation and identity within the American political system tends to develop sometime from the Mid to late teens and then solidifies further as individuals move into their early / mid '20s and have voted in their first couple elections, although naturally major events such as Wars, Recessions, Terrorist Attacks, Racial Justice protests & Unrest, etc can obviously transcend partisan affiliation and create their own "life events" and reevaluation of preexisting attitudes and partisan identity.

Additionally the ethno-demographic composition of the younger generations of Americans makes it much more difficult for Republican candidates to be able to compete without finding a way to navigate ethno-cultural grievances among many of their partisan base with what will continue to be a larger share of the electorate in many parts of the US.

3.) Patterns of internal US migration both in-migration and out-migration from WA, OR, and CA will obviously impact the composition of the electorates in all three states in 2028/ 2032 / 2036, not to mention the natural internal innate increase / decrease of populations caused by births and deaths and those already born within these three states coming of voting age.

       A.) Older Voters---- Although it's a bit morbid, as the eldest members of the population pass away it can create political impacts because of shared generational experiences which formed a shared collective identity, which created strong and permanent political partisan identification.

           To use a more personal example, the experiences of all four of my Grandparents, who unfortunately are no longer with us, was deeply shaped by the Great Depression /New Deal & WW II.

          Although that does not mean that they were all complete 100% life-time Democrats it shaped a broader perspective that led the swingier ones to vote DEM for JFK in '60, strongly back Johnson in '64, etc...

          i.) In the case of OR and WA that led to a DEM political coalition in which predominately rural resource extraction industries, including fishing, cooperative farming, and loggers (As well as Miners in the Eastern parts of OR) effectively joined with ethnic-immigrant minority populations in PDX and SEA, along with Union members in smaller and medium sized cities throughout the region, despite the fact that OR tended to be a pretty reliably Republican State with Washington State not that far behind.

         ii.) CA appears to have had a somewhat different experience as the dramatic growth in Southern Cali from In-Migration from other parts of the country, created what is arguably the first Republican "Super Suburban County" in the Nation in the form of Orange County, while Maricopa was still almost in diapers but exhibiting many of the same characteristics. This was more than enough to overwhelm the much more strongly Unionized Bay Area counties / cities of San Francisco, Oakland (Alameda at large etc...).

        iii.) The overwhelming majority of older voters today (65+ Yrs) in the US would fall within the Baby Boomer category which is a mixed bag at best.

             Despite all of the hype the Baby Boomers never really exhibited the same type of consistent ideological and partisan affiliation voting patterns as did the Greatest Generation.

            Sure Vietnam and the Civil Rights Movement (In both it's original incarnation in the Deep South as a rejection of a codified White Supremacist political system, as well as the transition to challenge similar injustices and inequities in the Cities of Northern and Western States) did create some shared cultural generational experiences, including not just political events, but also popular culture in terms of music, easy accessibility to television broadcasts at a time where there only maybe (3-4) TV channels available even in most metro areas, but it's pretty clear that by the time the late '70s and '80s hit, that there was almost more political disagreements among the Boomers than perhaps among either of the two preceding generations.

          It does appear that Biden did make significant headway among Boomer voters in '20 compared to '16, likely largely around the compare / contrast with Trump on the COVID pandemic as well as significant improvements among Military Veterans, who tend to skew older because of the overall pool of the US Military has shrunk considerably since the end of the Cold War.

         Because of the overall increase in the US Life expectancy (Until last year!!!) it is likely that such voters, including both of my parents, as well as other relatives of the same generation will likely be around for at least the next two election cycles.

OK--- done with the morbidity, eyes starting to get a bit moist thinking of the potential future loss of loved ones and honestly I don't give an eff about how they vote, I would rather just have them live longer, so I don't end up dying before them.

       B.) Internal / External Migration Patterns and Push-Pull Dynamics

Americans like to move. OK---- that is perhaps a slight bit of excessive hyperbole, but the reality is that compared to most other parts of the world and countries in the world there tends to be quite a bit of migration from the farms, towns, cities to elsewhere within the same State, Region, or even other parts of the United States.

Historically in most developing countries this type of migration has happened from more impoverished rural areas to the regional towns and from their to larger cities, etc... and actually the US historically was no real exception to that norm, despite any claims of American Exceptionalism.

The movement from the Periphery to the Core was certainly in full swing if we simply look at several relatively recent periods in US History:

i.) The Great Migration   (Southern African-American Migration)
ii.) The Hillbilly Highway (Appalachian Migration)
iii.) Dust Bowl Migration


https://www.history.com/topics/black-history/great-migration
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillbilly_Highway
https://www.history.com/topics/great-depression/dust-bowl

All of these great migrations had something in common, what in Political Science and Sociology is known as the "Push-Pull factor", although it is most frequently used to describe external migration from one country to another, I believe the same logic applies when it comes to internal migration within the US.

https://depts.washington.edu/moving1/

C.) Push & Pull Factors---

     1.) WA, OR, and CA all have extremely overpriced housing markets including rentals within not just their largest Urban Metros (SEA, PDX, BAR, and SoCal / SD) but also within smaller growing MSAs.

      This is now being combined with what is an extremely shortage of housing overall, at a time where many potential buyers of the Millennial Generation are starting to be able to finally consider purchasing a home.

     This will continue to worsen as increasingly poor, working-class, and even middle-class families can no longer afford a roof over their head, until what is not only a Regional Housing Crisis on the West Coast but in many parts of the country is a National Housing Crisis is addressed.

    Even in places such as Salem, Oregon previously thought be relatively affordable compared to most other Metros in OR there are now homeless camps / tent cities along I-5 as you drive down the Highway.

    Needless to say many of those most likely to not be able to pay what is a dramatically increased cost of rent will migrate elsewhere, after moving further and further down the commuter highways to trade off cheaper apartments and not be priced out of the market.

    Needless to say the Gentrification is and will continue to disproportionately impact people of color, as well as working-class Anglos.

    2.) Pushes will continue from rural areas within OR and WA most significantly, as they have been doing for quite a few decades as there are no longer that many good paying Mill jobs in places like Roseburg, Oregon and Longview Washington and just for a job in the Periphery of the Cities might be a better gig than the opportunities back home (Have a few stories from Gen X friends of mine from Coos Bay).

   3.) Pulls--- Californians can sell their overpriced houses and buy a mansion in OR or WA and work remotely as part of either the Gig economy or a Computer Programmer.

       College educated folks from elsewhere in the Country can migrate to Metro PDX or SEA to participate in a "Hipster Scene" where they can maybe live in a cooler place without as much discrimination if they are LGBTQ+, Environmentalist, Democrat in a place where you can legally buy weed on just about every block (exaggeration).

       There are still remnants of a live music scene in both PDX and SEA, but hell Chicago is probably a better scene if that's your thing....

       Jobs---- really jobs aren't that hot in the PacNW, since generally we are more of a manufacturing state, as opposed to Silicon Valley scene (Where almost all of the MFG got shut down shortly after the end of the Cold War, left a ton of Toxic Plumes under the South Bay aquifer, and basically relocated almost all of their Ops overseas).

      Wages--- Sure OR and WA are pretty aggressive in the Min Wage increases, but hell Amazon already pays $15 / Hr Nationally prior to winning their anti-Union campaign in Alabama.

D.) Summary----

The extreme gentrification of almost all of the metro areas in WA, OR, and CA will cause a consider internal population migration event within the US, which might well become a giant wildcard in future Presidential Elections within the region, as populations move and adapt to what is becoming an increasingly untenable and unaffordable gap between their wages and their cost of living, while meanwhile Democratic and Republican politicians in Washington play games with the lack of affordable housing, which neither party wants to touch as a direct result of the Great Recession.

Congrats to anybody who actually read through this whole post, you likely have more stamina than me....

Originally I was planning on going through County by County and mapping election results over time, but early on, decided to free-style a bit, since after all we are talking 12-16 years down the line...

[THG]

Interesting and somewhat provocative thread title, since although it runs counter to both the standard political CW (as well as the Atlas CW) all three States are going through significant demographic changes where the overall composition of the electorate might well look significantly different in 2032 or 2036.

Assuming that the current political alignments and party social demographic base composition remain relatively intact from the '16 / '20 presidential coalitions (Which is a big *IF*), theoretically the Democrats would continue to see growth in their overall vote share in ALL three states.

1.) The youngest voter age cohorts in the 2020 GE PRES election were the most Democratic at a National Level, as well as likely within WA, OR, and CA.

At this point there is no real evidence to suggest that voters coming of age for the next GE PRES cycle in 2024 or the following (2028) will exhibit significantly different partisan voting patterns.

The much mooted scenario of Gen Z voters demonstrating an increased propensity to support PUBs over the Millennial Gen was pretty much shot down after the 2020 GE ED, despite many fervent promoters and boosters of this on Atlas, as well as elsewhere.

https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2020/05/14/on-the-cusp-of-adulthood-and-facing-an-uncertain-future-what-we-know-about-gen-z-so-far-2/

2.) I believe there is a fairly conclusive amount of supporting Political Science research over the decades which supports the concept that generally partisan affiliation and identity within the American political system tends to develop sometime from the Mid to late teens and then solidifies further as individuals move into their early / mid '20s and have voted in their first couple elections, although naturally major events such as Wars, Recessions, Terrorist Attacks, Racial Justice protests & Unrest, etc can obviously transcend partisan affiliation and create their own "life events" and reevaluation of preexisting attitudes and partisan identity.

Additionally the ethno-demographic composition of the younger generations of Americans makes it much more difficult for Republican candidates to be able to compete without finding a way to navigate ethno-cultural grievances among many of their partisan base with what will continue to be a larger share of the electorate in many parts of the US.

3.) Patterns of internal US migration both in-migration and out-migration from WA, OR, and CA will obviously impact the composition of the electorates in all three states in 2028/ 2032 / 2036, not to mention the natural internal innate increase / decrease of populations caused by births and deaths and those already born within these three states coming of voting age.

       A.) Older Voters---- Although it's a bit morbid, as the eldest members of the population pass away it can create political impacts because of shared generational experiences which formed a shared collective identity, which created strong and permanent political partisan identification.

           To use a more personal example, the experiences of all four of my Grandparents, who unfortunately are no longer with us, was deeply shaped by the Great Depression /New Deal & WW II.

          Although that does not mean that they were all complete 100% life-time Democrats it shaped a broader perspective that led the swingier ones to vote DEM for JFK in '60, strongly back Johnson in '64, etc...

          i.) In the case of OR and WA that led to a DEM political coalition in which predominately rural resource extraction industries, including fishing, cooperative farming, and loggers (As well as Miners in the Eastern parts of OR) effectively joined with ethnic-immigrant minority populations in PDX and SEA, along with Union members in smaller and medium sized cities throughout the region, despite the fact that OR tended to be a pretty reliably Republican State with Washington State not that far behind.

         ii.) CA appears to have had a somewhat different experience as the dramatic growth in Southern Cali from In-Migration from other parts of the country, created what is arguably the first Republican "Super Suburban County" in the Nation in the form of Orange County, while Maricopa was still almost in diapers but exhibiting many of the same characteristics. This was more than enough to overwhelm the much more strongly Unionized Bay Area counties / cities of San Francisco, Oakland (Alameda at large etc...).

        iii.) The overwhelming majority of older voters today (65+ Yrs) in the US would fall within the Baby Boomer category which is a mixed bag at best.

             Despite all of the hype the Baby Boomers never really exhibited the same type of consistent ideological and partisan affiliation voting patterns as did the Greatest Generation.

            Sure Vietnam and the Civil Rights Movement (In both it's original incarnation in the Deep South as a rejection of a codified White Supremacist political system, as well as the transition to challenge similar injustices and inequities in the Cities of Northern and Western States) did create some shared cultural generational experiences, including not just political events, but also popular culture in terms of music, easy accessibility to television broadcasts at a time where there only maybe (3-4) TV channels available even in most metro areas, but it's pretty clear that by the time the late '70s and '80s hit, that there was almost more political disagreements among the Boomers than perhaps among either of the two preceding generations.

          It does appear that Biden did make significant headway among Boomer voters in '20 compared to '16, likely largely around the compare / contrast with Trump on the COVID pandemic as well as significant improvements among Military Veterans, who tend to skew older because of the overall pool of the US Military has shrunk considerably since the end of the Cold War.

         Because of the overall increase in the US Life expectancy (Until last year!!!) it is likely that such voters, including both of my parents, as well as other relatives of the same generation will likely be around for at least the next two election cycles.

OK--- done with the morbidity, eyes starting to get a bit moist thinking of the potential future loss of loved ones and honestly I don't give an eff about how they vote, I would rather just have them live longer, so I don't end up dying before them.

       B.) Internal / External Migration Patterns and Push-Pull Dynamics

Americans like to move. OK---- that is perhaps a slight bit of excessive hyperbole, but the reality is that compared to most other parts of the world and countries in the world there tends to be quite a bit of migration from the farms, towns, cities to elsewhere within the same State, Region, or even other parts of the United States.

Historically in most developing countries this type of migration has happened from more impoverished rural areas to the regional towns and from their to larger cities, etc... and actually the US historically was no real exception to that norm, despite any claims of American Exceptionalism.

The movement from the Periphery to the Core was certainly in full swing if we simply look at several relatively recent periods in US History:

i.) The Great Migration   (Southern African-American Migration)
ii.) The Hillbilly Highway (Appalachian Migration)
iii.) Dust Bowl Migration


https://www.history.com/topics/black-history/great-migration
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillbilly_Highway
https://www.history.com/topics/great-depression/dust-bowl

All of these great migrations had something in common, what in Political Science and Sociology is known as the "Push-Pull factor", although it is most frequently used to describe external migration from one country to another, I believe the same logic applies when it comes to internal migration within the US.

https://depts.washington.edu/moving1/

C.) Push & Pull Factors---

     1.) WA, OR, and CA all have extremely overpriced housing markets including rentals within not just their largest Urban Metros (SEA, PDX, BAR, and SoCal / SD) but also within smaller growing MSAs.

      This is now being combined with what is an extremely shortage of housing overall, at a time where many potential buyers of the Millennial Generation are starting to be able to finally consider purchasing a home.

     This will continue to worsen as increasingly poor, working-class, and even middle-class families can no longer afford a roof over their head, until what is not only a Regional Housing Crisis on the West Coast but in many parts of the country is a National Housing Crisis is addressed.

    Even in places such as Salem, Oregon previously thought be relatively affordable compared to most other Metros in OR there are now homeless camps / tent cities along I-5 as you drive down the Highway.

    Needless to say many of those most likely to not be able to pay what is a dramatically increased cost of rent will migrate elsewhere, after moving further and further down the commuter highways to trade off cheaper apartments and not be priced out of the market.

    Needless to say the Gentrification is and will continue to disproportionately impact people of color, as well as working-class Anglos.

    2.) Pushes will continue from rural areas within OR and WA most significantly, as they have been doing for quite a few decades as there are no longer that many good paying Mill jobs in places like Roseburg, Oregon and Longview Washington and just for a job in the Periphery of the Cities might be a better gig than the opportunities back home (Have a few stories from Gen X friends of mine from Coos Bay).

   3.) Pulls--- Californians can sell their overpriced houses and buy a mansion in OR or WA and work remotely as part of either the Gig economy or a Computer Programmer.

       College educated folks from elsewhere in the Country can migrate to Metro PDX or SEA to participate in a "Hipster Scene" where they can maybe live in a cooler place without as much discrimination if they are LGBTQ+, Environmentalist, Democrat in a place where you can legally buy weed on just about every block (exaggeration).

       There are still remnants of a live music scene in both PDX and SEA, but hell Chicago is probably a better scene if that's your thing....

       Jobs---- really jobs aren't that hot in the PacNW, since generally we are more of a manufacturing state, as opposed to Silicon Valley scene (Where almost all of the MFG got shut down shortly after the end of the Cold War, left a ton of Toxic Plumes under the South Bay aquifer, and basically relocated almost all of their Ops overseas).

      Wages--- Sure OR and WA are pretty aggressive in the Min Wage increases, but hell Amazon already pays $15 / Hr Nationally prior to winning their anti-Union campaign in Alabama.

D.) Summary----

The extreme gentrification of almost all of the metro areas in WA, OR, and CA will cause a consider internal population migration event within the US, which might well become a giant wildcard in future Presidential Elections within the region, as populations move and adapt to what is becoming an increasingly untenable and unaffordable gap between their wages and their cost of living, while meanwhile Democratic and Republican politicians in Washington play games with the lack of affordable housing, which neither party wants to touch as a direct result of the Great Recession.

Congrats to anybody who actually read through this whole post, you likely have more stamina than me....

Originally I was planning on going through County by County and mapping election results over time, but early on, decided to free-style a bit, since after all we are talking 12-16 years down the line...

Gen Z in 2020 voted very much to the right of Millennials in 2008, for reference- which is why I’m not utterly terrified about their political trends in the future. 

Just wanted to get that out of the way.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Both PNW states are also receiving the most liberal transplants from CA, and are much more socially liberal than CA outside of the Bay Area (and even then, the Bay is probably not as liberal as Portland, and certainly not Seattle).

Wut

I can’t see either state voting to the left of CA in at least the next 2-3 cycles. There are just too many Anglo white folks in WA and OR for that, especially outside of Metro PDX and Metro SEA. But I can’t see any R presidential candidate winning either state during that time frame either.

Seattle is arguably the most liberal city in the US, outside of DC maybe. Portland isn't too far behind either.

I have a hunch that the growth of the Portland and Seattle metros (and influx of Bay Area liberals into there) will swing the PNW into being D+20 states for the foreseeable future, whereas California may or may not be maxed out for Dems at this point.

Does that sound more reasonable?

Berkeley, CA would like to have a word with you.

[Skill and Chance]

Very plausible if the Hispanic GOP shift continues. 

[TodayJunior]

Only if Republicans hit rock bottom (still falling??) in California and start to make inroads with Hispanics as mentioned above. So perhaps it would be BECAUSE of California moving right not OR/WA moving left. It did happen in the 80’s

[THG]

Both PNW states are also receiving the most liberal transplants from CA, and are much more socially liberal than CA outside of the Bay Area (and even then, the Bay is probably not as liberal as Portland, and certainly not Seattle).

Wut

I can’t see either state voting to the left of CA in at least the next 2-3 cycles. There are just too many Anglo white folks in WA and OR for that, especially outside of Metro PDX and Metro SEA. But I can’t see any R presidential candidate winning either state during that time frame either.

Seattle is arguably the most liberal city in the US, outside of DC maybe. Portland isn't too far behind either.

I have a hunch that the growth of the Portland and Seattle metros (and influx of Bay Area liberals into there) will swing the PNW into being D+20 states for the foreseeable future, whereas California may or may not be maxed out for Dems at this point.

Does that sound more reasonable?

Berkeley, CA would like to have a word with you.

I think Seattle and Berkley are in a similar category.

[Skill and Chance]

Only if Republicans hit rock bottom (still falling??) in California and start to make inroads with Hispanics as mentioned above. So perhaps it would be BECAUSE of California moving right not OR/WA moving left. It did happen in the 80’s

The recall will be a good test case for this.  By all indications, Newsom is doing quite poorly in SoCal while staying pretty strong in NorCal (probably the closest analog to OR/WA statewide elections).

[THG]

Only if Republicans hit rock bottom (still falling??) in California and start to make inroads with Hispanics as mentioned above. So perhaps it would be BECAUSE of California moving right not OR/WA moving left. It did happen in the 80’s

The recall will be a good test case for this.  By all indications, Newsom is doing quite poorly in SoCal while staying pretty strong in NorCal (probably the closest analog to OR/WA statewide elections).

Yeah, I completely agree with this.

I think SoCal trends to the right, but most of NorCal stays where it’s at.

[MarkD]

2020: CA 29.16; WA 19.20; OR 16.08
2016: CA 30.11; WA 15.71; OR 10.98
2012: CA 23.12; WA 14.87; OR 12.09
2008: CA 24.06; WA 17.18; OR 16.35
2004: CA 9.95; WA 7.18; OR 4.16
2000: CA 11.80; WA 5.58; OR 0.44

No, I don't see how either WA or OR will vote further left than CA any time in the near future.

[Non Swing Voter]

Probably not in the near future but maybe at some point Washington will get so ultra educated that it fits with the Democratic Party slightly more than California does?  At some point the GOP needs to stop losing minorities by massive margins and that could help them in CA one day with minorities without college degrees maybe.