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May 01, 2024, 03:15:13 AM
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Author Topic: Reaction to this map?  (Read 465 times)
Chips
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Junior Chimp
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« on: August 01, 2021, 07:38:15 AM »



Florida defies conventional wisdom and goes blue, the map is the same as 2020 otherwise.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2021, 11:49:36 AM »

Canel-Diaz has morphed into the Cuban equivalent of Mikhail Gorbachev out of a realization that a reforming Communist has a better chance of surviving without Communism than does a brutal hard-liner like Nioolae Ceausescu.
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2021, 04:06:52 PM »

A possibility would be that Miami-Dade votes to the left of its 2016 results (unlikely) and Palm beach votes >60%. Meanwhile, in NC, either the urban/suburban areas don't budge and neither do the rurals, or the white rural areas zoom right and overwhelm votes coming from Charlotte, Raleigh, and the Triangle.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #3 on: August 01, 2021, 04:34:56 PM »

Was the Panhandle sold to Alabama?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #4 on: August 01, 2021, 04:39:10 PM »

D's are Done in FL as long as DeSantis is there and he will be on Ballot either as Prez or Veep, Cooper is term limited in NC, Rs are likely to hold on in 2022 Sen and Florida p 2024 NC Gov

The question is GA and OH whether Ryan or Sherrod Brown can beat the odds and win in 2022 or 2024, Ryan is the underdog but D's need MT and OH to keep the Senate in a probable loss of WV in 2024

Haven't you seen the polls in FL 60/40 R numbers
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #5 on: August 01, 2021, 05:16:26 PM »

Ron DeSantis was caught with a live boy/dead girl and lost in 2022. Trump dies. GOP primary is a jungle.

Biden doubles down on the embargo in Cuba, boosting his popularity with Florida Cubans - enough to narrowly win the state.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #6 on: August 01, 2021, 07:10:15 PM »

Maybe Ron DeSantis faces a lot of backlash due to the recent rise in COVID hospitalizations in Florida, which convinces 400,000 Florida voters to switch back to the Democratic Party?
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AGA
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: August 01, 2021, 11:30:47 PM »

Doubt FL flips before NC.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #8 on: August 02, 2021, 06:20:32 PM »

I predicted that map for 2020.  Probably unlikely for 2024, due to current trends in NC and FL.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #9 on: August 02, 2021, 06:22:49 PM »

That sure was a crazy dream I had about the 2024 election!

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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #10 on: August 02, 2021, 09:41:15 PM »

I can see Nevada going for Trump, in a similar way Florida went for Trump.
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Diabolical Materialism
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« Reply #11 on: August 03, 2021, 09:58:56 AM »
« Edited: August 03, 2021, 10:20:20 AM by JamsaranDunk »

Probably getting tired of hearing all the National Guard helicopters evacuate people from the sinkhole that swallowed The Villages the night before the election.
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Person Man
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« Reply #12 on: August 03, 2021, 10:58:42 AM »

It's not really plausible without North Carolina going along.
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Chips
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #13 on: August 03, 2021, 11:26:53 AM »

To be fair, In this scenario I cooked up FL and NC were both within half a point. If Biden is able to do something to turn Cubans back left or find a way to circumvent that by doing better in the I-4 corridor, it isn't the most unlikely scenario out there.
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Holmes
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« Reply #14 on: August 03, 2021, 11:56:10 AM »


Maybe they all died of COVID.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #15 on: August 03, 2021, 01:25:31 PM »

To be fair, In this scenario I cooked up FL and NC were both within half a point. If Biden is able to do something to turn Cubans back left or find a way to circumvent that by doing better in the I-4 corridor, it isn't the most unlikely scenario out there.

Even somewhat well-connected Republican activists like THG appear to suggest it's possible.
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Xing
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« Reply #16 on: August 03, 2021, 01:35:16 PM »

I mean, if we see Latinos swing Democratic in 2024 (not at all impossible or even that hard to imagine), this is definitely a plausible map.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #17 on: August 03, 2021, 01:52:48 PM »

I mean, if we see Latinos swing Democratic in 2024 (not at all impossible or even that hard to imagine), this is definitely a plausible map.

You mean Cubans...but even if enough people snap back to 2012 or 2016, I that PROBABLY alone halfs the margin in Florida if not more and gets Texas within 4.
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