How plausible is this map?

[Biden his time]

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Kamala Harris/Roy Cooper - 269 EV - 50.8% Popular Vote
Ron DeSantis/Chris Sununu - 269 EV - 48.1% Popular Vote


Democratic Flips: NC
Republican Flips: PA, MI, WI, NH, ME


I chose option #2, and think that there's larger potential than you might expect for Maine and New Hampshire to suddenly trend rightwards.

[Alben Barkley]

Red NH and ME make it implausible, especially combined with blue NC. There is just no way those states are voting to the right of NC, AZ, GA, all of that. Certainly not in 2024.

[THG]

Even Roy Cooper isn't magically giving Harris NC. She is an utterly awful fit for this state (and most states).

[Biden his time]

She is an utterly awful fit for this state (and most states).

Can you explain why you believe that to be the case? I was under the impression that Harris is stronger in the Sun Belt than she is in the Rust Belt. Especially if the economy is strong.

Also, a lot can change in four years. Who knows how popular Harris will be by 2024, and where?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not plausible Nate Silver 279 includes MI, PA, and WI while South goes R, didn't Hillary try the Sunbelt strategy and ignore the Rust belt and she failed


Hillary went dark in the Rust belt to win FL with Murphy and Rubio won anyways

[THG]

She is an utterly awful fit for this state (and most states).

Can you explain why you believe that to be the case? I was under the impression that Harris is stronger in the Sun Belt than she is in the Rust Belt. Especially if the economy is strong.

Also, a lot can change in four years. Who knows how popular Harris will be by 2024, and where?

Harris is not especially liked in the suburbs of this state (and in the sunbelt suburbs in general) and is especially hated among working class voters.

She’s a pathetic fit for everywhere tbh.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I would say very plausible if it weren't for NH. The state is too educated, though maybe I'm assuming too much that Dems flipping NC would be in large part because of more left shifts in the educated suburbs of the tech triangle.

[Chips]

#3. In a normal scenario with Trump/DeSantis or something, you could replace NH and ME with NV and you have another fairly realistic 269-269.

[CookieDamage]

Somewhat plausible, but ME-AL is staying D

[Tekken_Guy]

I don't see how New Hampshire and Maine vote to the right of North Carolina, even with Sununu and Cooper. So unlikely.

[Spark]

I don't see how New Hampshire and Maine vote to the right of North Carolina, even with Sununu and Cooper. So unlikely.

[AGA]

New Hampshire and Maine are the only states that make this implausible. Just because New Hampshire is white and rural doesn't mean it's trending R, and North Carolina doesn't seem to be trending in any direction. Maine is trending R, but it will probably still be to the left of North Carolina anyway.

[Kleine Scheiße]

i doubt kamala would win nc without winning even one of mi-pa-wi but it's not technically impossible

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not plausible D's will win the Rust belt First Hillary tried the Sunbelt strategy AZ and FL and NC over Rust belt and she failed at it she didn't campaign that much in Rust belt she ran lots of ads and visited the Sunbelt much more and Trump took the Election from her been there done that already

[Schiff for Senate]

Not plausible, and borderline impossible. If MI goes red there's no way at all that NC, GA and AZ vote blue, though Cooper on the ballot might flip NC blue (especially if he's at the top of the ticket!).