Does anyone know how DRA is able to split the results of the election up by blocks?
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October 27, 2021, 08:46:31 PM

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  Does anyone know how DRA is able to split the results of the election up by blocks?
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Author Topic: Does anyone know how DRA is able to split the results of the election up by blocks?  (Read 357 times)
erwint.2021
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« on: July 29, 2021, 01:08:24 AM »

I'm just curious how this is possible.
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Abdullah
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« Reply #1 on: July 29, 2021, 09:21:42 AM »

I'm just curious how this is possible.

My understanding is that they already have the demographic census data by blocks, but they can't split up the election results that manner.

They just extrapolate the full precinct results on every block, no matter the differences between the blocks.

So for example if you have a 50% - 50% Biden Trump precinct in the deep South, and it has an all-white side and an all-black side, you split it up to see the blocks, all the blocks are also split 50% - 50%.

They won't make any assumptions on voting data beyond the precinct level.ing
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erwint.2021
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« Reply #2 on: July 29, 2021, 12:51:59 PM »

I'm just curious how this is possible.

My understanding is that they already have the demographic census data by blocks, but they can't split up the election results that manner.

They just extrapolate the full precinct results on every block, no matter the differences between the blocks.

So for example if you have a 50% - 50% Biden Trump precinct in the deep South, and it has an all-white side and an all-black side, you split it up to see the blocks, all the blocks are also split 50% - 50%.

They won't make any assumptions on voting data beyond the precinct level.ing

I'm not exactly sure this is how though. My block I live in has a lower white pop. than the adjacent but the adjacent Precinct had a higher Biden %. The results are similar in my Precinct, but none of the results are exactly the same.
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Abdullah
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« Reply #3 on: July 29, 2021, 01:01:15 PM »

I'm just curious how this is possible.

My understanding is that they already have the demographic census data by blocks, but they can't split up the election results that manner.

They just extrapolate the full precinct results on every block, no matter the differences between the blocks.

So for example if you have a 50% - 50% Biden Trump precinct in the deep South, and it has an all-white side and an all-black side, you split it up to see the blocks, all the blocks are also split 50% - 50%.

They won't make any assumptions on voting data beyond the precinct level.ing

I'm not exactly sure this is how though. My block I live in has a lower white pop. than the adjacent but the adjacent Precinct had a higher Biden %. The results are similar in my Precinct, but none of the results are exactly the same.

Slightly different populations in each block lead it to be that the percentages have to be slightly different in order for the totals of all the blocks to add up to the precinct level. They try to be as close as they can be, though.

For example, if there's a block with 5 people in it and one vote assigned to it, that vote will certainly go to the winner of the precinct, giving it 100% for that candidate. Even if that may not have been the case for that voter (or maybe there could've been two voters, or none).

If the block has more people, the more the vote margins in that block will look like the precinct as a whole.
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erwint.2021
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« Reply #4 on: July 29, 2021, 01:03:04 PM »

I'm just curious how this is possible.

My understanding is that they already have the demographic census data by blocks, but they can't split up the election results that manner.

They just extrapolate the full precinct results on every block, no matter the differences between the blocks.

So for example if you have a 50% - 50% Biden Trump precinct in the deep South, and it has an all-white side and an all-black side, you split it up to see the blocks, all the blocks are also split 50% - 50%.

They won't make any assumptions on voting data beyond the precinct level.ing

I'm not exactly sure this is how though. My block I live in has a lower white pop. than the adjacent but the adjacent Precinct had a higher Biden %. The results are similar in my Precinct, but none of the results are exactly the same.

Slightly different populations in each block lead it to be that the percentages have to be slightly different in order for the totals of all the blocks to add up to the precinct level. They try to be as close as they can be, though.

For example, if there's a block with 5 people in it and one vote assigned to it, that vote will certainly go to the winner of the precinct, giving it 100% for that candidate. Even if that may not have been the case for that voter (or maybe there could've been two voters, or none).

If the block has more people, the more the vote margins in that block will look like the precinct as a whole.

Okay, so here's what I'm wondering. How do they know how many votes were cast in each block, and how is it calculated that Biden received a higher % in a whiter precinct, than one with a higher minority %?
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Abdullah
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« Reply #5 on: July 29, 2021, 01:14:22 PM »


Okay, so here's what I'm wondering. How do they know how many votes were cast in each block,

They do a formula based on how many people the block has, the population of the precinct as a whole, and the number of votes in the precinct as a whole. I'd imagine it looks something like this:

BlockVotes = BlockPopulation * (PrecinctVotes/PrecinctPopulation)

With some rounding here and there in order for it to all add up.

So in an example where there's a block with 20 people in a precinct with 200 people and 50 votes, the block would likely have 5 votes as it has 10% of the population of the precinct, so it should get 10% of the votes.

and how is it calculated that Biden received a higher % in a whiter precinct, than one with a higher minority %?

The racial demographics of the block aren't considered at all.
This is why Biden might receive more in a white block than a black block.

They try to get the percentages as close as possible block-by-block to the precinct as a whole in all cases, whether that involves rounding up or down, or whether the block is dominated by rural Southern whites or urban Black.



There are limitations to the block data.
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erwint.2021
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« Reply #6 on: July 29, 2021, 01:17:58 PM »


Okay, so here's what I'm wondering. How do they know how many votes were cast in each block,

They do a formula based on how many people the block has, the population of the precinct as a whole, and the number of votes in the precinct as a whole. I'd imagine it looks something like this:

BlockVotes = BlockPopulation * (PrecinctVotes/PrecinctPopulation)

With some rounding here and there in order for it to all add up.

So in an example where there's a block with 20 people in a precinct with 200 people and 50 votes, the block would likely have 5 votes as it has 10% of the population of the precinct, so it should get 10% of the votes.

and how is it calculated that Biden received a higher % in a whiter precinct, than one with a higher minority %?

The racial demographics of the block aren't considered at all.
This is why Biden might receive more in a white block than a black block.

They try to get the percentages as close as possible block-by-block to the precinct as a whole in all cases, whether that involves rounding up or down, or whether the block is dominated by rural Southern whites or urban Black.



There are limitations to the block data.

How accurate do these split precincts end up being? I was looking at the City of Houston, TX and there are tons and tons of splits involved, as the precincts don't even remotely follow city lines.
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Abdullah
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« Reply #7 on: July 29, 2021, 01:20:56 PM »


Okay, so here's what I'm wondering. How do they know how many votes were cast in each block,

They do a formula based on how many people the block has, the population of the precinct as a whole, and the number of votes in the precinct as a whole. I'd imagine it looks something like this:

BlockVotes = BlockPopulation * (PrecinctVotes/PrecinctPopulation)

With some rounding here and there in order for it to all add up.

So in an example where there's a block with 20 people in a precinct with 200 people and 50 votes, the block would likely have 5 votes as it has 10% of the population of the precinct, so it should get 10% of the votes.

and how is it calculated that Biden received a higher % in a whiter precinct, than one with a higher minority %?

The racial demographics of the block aren't considered at all.
This is why Biden might receive more in a white block than a black block.

They try to get the percentages as close as possible block-by-block to the precinct as a whole in all cases, whether that involves rounding up or down, or whether the block is dominated by rural Southern whites or urban Black.



There are limitations to the block data.

How accurate do these split precincts end up being? I was looking at the City of Houston, TX and there are tons and tons of splits involved, as the precincts don't even remotely follow city lines.

It usually evens out at the end of the day between all the conflicting votes (unless you're purposefully going and separating blocks likely to favor Democrats to blocks favoring Republicans).

For such a big city like Houston, I'd imagine that it wouldn't affect the final margin by more than 0.1%. There are way more precincts that aren't split than precincts that are. Don't sweat it much.
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erwint.2021
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« Reply #8 on: July 29, 2021, 01:27:10 PM »


Yeah, what's interesting is that multiple people did calculations on the city and came up with very similar results, but several whole % pps off from the actual. The city swung 3.0% R to their calculation, but DRA says it was a 0.9% R swing.
Okay, so here's what I'm wondering. How do they know how many votes were cast in each block,

They do a formula based on how many people the block has, the population of the precinct as a whole, and the number of votes in the precinct as a whole. I'd imagine it looks something like this:

BlockVotes = BlockPopulation * (PrecinctVotes/PrecinctPopulation)

With some rounding here and there in order for it to all add up.

So in an example where there's a block with 20 people in a precinct with 200 people and 50 votes, the block would likely have 5 votes as it has 10% of the population of the precinct, so it should get 10% of the votes.

and how is it calculated that Biden received a higher % in a whiter precinct, than one with a higher minority %?

The racial demographics of the block aren't considered at all.
This is why Biden might receive more in a white block than a black block.

They try to get the percentages as close as possible block-by-block to the precinct as a whole in all cases, whether that involves rounding up or down, or whether the block is dominated by rural Southern whites or urban Black.



There are limitations to the block data.

How accurate do these split precincts end up being? I was looking at the City of Houston, TX and there are tons and tons of splits involved, as the precincts don't even remotely follow city lines.

It usually evens out at the end of the day between all the conflicting votes (unless you're purposefully going and separating blocks likely to favor Democrats to blocks favoring Republicans).

For such a big city like Houston, I'd imagine that it wouldn't affect the final margin by more than 0.1%. There are way more precincts that aren't split than precincts that are. Don't sweat it much.
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erwint.2021
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« Reply #9 on: July 29, 2021, 01:32:16 PM »


Okay, so here's what I'm wondering. How do they know how many votes were cast in each block,

They do a formula based on how many people the block has, the population of the precinct as a whole, and the number of votes in the precinct as a whole. I'd imagine it looks something like this:

BlockVotes = BlockPopulation * (PrecinctVotes/PrecinctPopulation)

With some rounding here and there in order for it to all add up.

So in an example where there's a block with 20 people in a precinct with 200 people and 50 votes, the block would likely have 5 votes as it has 10% of the population of the precinct, so it should get 10% of the votes.

and how is it calculated that Biden received a higher % in a whiter precinct, than one with a higher minority %?

The racial demographics of the block aren't considered at all.
This is why Biden might receive more in a white block than a black block.

They try to get the percentages as close as possible block-by-block to the precinct as a whole in all cases, whether that involves rounding up or down, or whether the block is dominated by rural Southern whites or urban Black.



There are limitations to the block data.

How accurate do these split precincts end up being? I was looking at the City of Houston, TX and there are tons and tons of splits involved, as the precincts don't even remotely follow city lines.

It usually evens out at the end of the day between all the conflicting votes (unless you're purposefully going and separating blocks likely to favor Democrats to blocks favoring Republicans).

For such a big city like Houston, I'd imagine that it wouldn't affect the final margin by more than 0.1%. There are way more precincts that aren't split than precincts that are. Don't sweat it much.


Do you know how they are able to calculate the results for states like Louisiana with all the mail-in votes not assigned to precincts?
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Abdullah
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« Reply #10 on: July 29, 2021, 01:42:46 PM »


Okay, so here's what I'm wondering. How do they know how many votes were cast in each block,

They do a formula based on how many people the block has, the population of the precinct as a whole, and the number of votes in the precinct as a whole. I'd imagine it looks something like this:

BlockVotes = BlockPopulation * (PrecinctVotes/PrecinctPopulation)

With some rounding here and there in order for it to all add up.

So in an example where there's a block with 20 people in a precinct with 200 people and 50 votes, the block would likely have 5 votes as it has 10% of the population of the precinct, so it should get 10% of the votes.

and how is it calculated that Biden received a higher % in a whiter precinct, than one with a higher minority %?

The racial demographics of the block aren't considered at all.
This is why Biden might receive more in a white block than a black block.

They try to get the percentages as close as possible block-by-block to the precinct as a whole in all cases, whether that involves rounding up or down, or whether the block is dominated by rural Southern whites or urban Black.



There are limitations to the block data.

How accurate do these split precincts end up being? I was looking at the City of Houston, TX and there are tons and tons of splits involved, as the precincts don't even remotely follow city lines.

It usually evens out at the end of the day between all the conflicting votes (unless you're purposefully going and separating blocks likely to favor Democrats to blocks favoring Republicans).

For such a big city like Houston, I'd imagine that it wouldn't affect the final margin by more than 0.1%. There are way more precincts that aren't split than precincts that are. Don't sweat it much.


Do you know how they are able to calculate the results for states like Louisiana with all the mail-in votes not assigned to precincts?

No, I don't unfortunately.
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