As much as I like Trump, he has too much baggage to win in 2024. The nominee should be DeSantis, but in this specific scenario, these would be the results:
Wisconsin would be Lean R, it actually shifted to the right of the national environment in 2020. If the Latino trends continue, Texas will be Likely R (R+8/R+9), New Mexico would narrow down significantly (Lean D, D+4.7), Nevada would flip (tilt R), Nebraska's 2nd District would flip (tilt R), Arizona would flip (tilt R). Georgia has gone so much to the Left, it would be Lean D (around D+1.2-2.4), because of the Suburban trends there, the African-American growth, and Stacey Abrams. Pennsylvania would be the tipping point. By the way, North Carolina would shift to the right narrowly especially with Kamala Harris on the ticket as President, considering it also didn't shift to the right in 2020 compared to the national environment at all.
