Which of these Florida counties flip R in 2024?

[Tekken_Guy]

Which of these five key Florida counties will the Republican carry in 2024?

[One Term Floridian]

Hot(ish) take: none of them flip R

[Minnesota Mike]

You forgot the obvious answer, None of the above.

[Chips]

I think Pinellas will flip back.

[MarkD]

Hot(ish) take: none of them flip R

^^^

This. I think the whole state goes narrowly D, like in 2012. The five counties in OP stay D, with Miami-Dade increasing its D margin over what it had been in 2020. Duval and Pinellas get a little bit more D too.

[Xing]

NOTA should be an option, though Pinellas is the most likely of these, even if I think it goes (very narrowly) Democratic.

[S019]

NOTA, but if any do, it'll be Pinellas

[_.]

None of them, but the most likely is Pinellas

Pinellas could potentially turn R because the Northern part of the County does have potential to swing farther, but at the same time this is being balanced out by the fact that the city St Petersburg is growing much faster than the county overall. It remains to be seen what goes on here.

Seminole County is a pretty likely win for the Democratic Candidate, and if the Democrats lose it, there's something going very wrong with their campaign (and Arizona's probably gone as well). It's as close as you can get to a classic D trending Suburb in Florida, and the Democratic Party is currently increasing their Party registration advantage here (as opposed to most of the rest of the country and state, where Republicans have done that).

Duval County has a dynamic similar to the Atlanta area but even more intense, this is another County where it becomes very difficult to see it turning R, simply due to demographics (this is also yet another County where the Democratic registration advantage is growing).


Hillsborough and Miami-Dade flipping are lol

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Hot(ish) take: none of them flip R

Write in: St. Lucie county flips Democratic.

[MT Treasurer]

I’d be very surprised if Pinellas didn’t flip in 2024. Seminole depends on the nominee and the overall environment but it’s certainly more likely than Duval.

If any of the others flip, it’s a R blowout both in FL and nationally.