What flips first? Delaware OH or Hamilton IN?

[Tekken_Guy]

Which northern suburban county of a Midwestern capital flips first?

[Bismarck]

Delaware is smaller and whites in the Columbus area are less republican than in Indy so new arrivals are more likely to shift it than Hamilton.

[Annihilation]

Hamilton seems to be moving left faster, Biden did better than Donnelly there while he couldn’t manage to top Brown’s 2018 performance in Delaware. It’s close, but I think Hamilton flips first.

[Chips]

Delaware, OH.

[Don't Tread on Me]

I'd lean with Delaware county for a larger % margin when it flips, but I think they'll both flip in the same election. What makes it more unique is that they both seem to be moving in the opposite directions as their respective states, which could slow the reversal trend, even though I anticipate that the rural gains with the GOP will continue even during the Biden years.

[CentristRepublican]

Hamilton County went red by 6.8%, down significantly from Mitt Romney's 34.2% margin.
Delaware County went red by a very similar 6.82%, down significantly from Mitt Romney's 23.51% margin.

Both are just about equally Republican currently, so what matters is which county is trending leftward at a faster rate - obviously, Hamilton County, which in the same time frame as Delaware County shifted 34.2% to the left compared to Delaware's 23.5%.

So, Hamilton County will flip first. (And if they actually end up flipping in the same election, then Hamilton will go blue by more than Delaware does.)

[Senator Golden]

Since both counties voted nearly the exact same in 2020 I believe they will flip in the same election maybe by 2024 or at least 2028. Both counties are so similar. They represent two midwestern big cities that are fairly democratic. But if you want to know which one will be slightly more dem I think maybe Hamilton will be by around one percent.