How will Utah vote in 2024?

[THG]

1) If Trump is the nominee

2) If Trump is NOT on the ticket and someone else is the nominee

[THG]

1) If Trump is the nominee

2) If Trump is NOT on the ticket and someone else is the nominee

I think that while Utah (and Mormons to a lesser extent) will trend to the left long term, I believe that short term Dems maxed out with that demographic in 2016/2020. If Trump is the nominee I expect him to win by 15-20 points again. If someone else is the margins would probably be bigger, though I do not believe that even 2008 margins in Utah are achievable, let alone 2004/2012 margins. The reasons for that are because of Salt Lake City’s growth, Utah becoming more secular and college educated, and Mormons not being as R as they used to (they’re still pretty R tho lol).

1) Trump wins by 15-20 points or so, like he did in 16/20.

2) *Insert Non-Trump R* wins by around 25 points, possibly the high 20’s, but it truly depends on which Republican it is. I can see DeSantis, Pence, or Haley winning by 25-30 (Utah loves establishment Republicans like Pence and Haley, or even non-establishment R’s who come across as acceptable to the establishment like RDS), but someone more populist like Tucker Carlson probably does the same as Trump in that state.

[Utah Neolib]

1. Probably around 2020 levels
2. Votes 5-10 points to the right of 2020

[Calthrina950]

I think Utah will probably vote ~60-40% Republican or so. For the reasons that you outlined, Utah will never be as Republican again as it was in 2004 or in 2012, when George W. Bush and Mitt Romney (the latter for very obvious reasons) received over 70% of the vote there.

Romney himself underperformed expectations in the state in 2018, losing two counties. And Utah's popular Republican Governor, Spencer Cox, did about the same as Romney, underperforming even Mike Lee in 2016. Democrats seem to have a definitive floor of ~33% now. Any non-Trump nominee probably would do better than Trump himself, whether it be Pence (who I believe has no shot at winning the nomination), Haley (whose chances are poor), DeSantis, or Scott.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R it's a Neutral Environment until Biden gets Covid out of here like he said when he ran for Prez, he has been unable to do

[THG]

I think Utah will probably vote ~60-40% Republican or so. For the reasons that you outlined, Utah will never be as Republican again as it was in 2004 or in 2012, when George W. Bush and Mitt Romney (the latter for very obvious reasons) received over 70% of the vote there.

Romney himself underperformed expectations in the state in 2018, losing two counties. And Utah's popular Republican Governor, Spencer Cox, did about the same as Romney, underperforming even Mike Lee in 2016. Democrats seem to have a definitive floor of ~33% now. Any non-Trump nominee probably would do better than Trump himself, whether it be Pence (who I believe has no shot at winning the nomination), Haley (whose chances are poor), DeSantis, or Scott.

Yeah, Spencer Cox is literally as much of a "RINO/moderate who appeals to suburbanites" type you can get and even he didn't match Lee's 2016 margins or Romney/Bush's margins in 2004/2012.

[Real Texan Politics]

1. Against Biden, probably about the same or maybe a slight leftward shift. Nothing too extreme though.

Against Harris, Trump’s MOV is probably in the mid 20s.

2. I don’t think DeSantis would get Romney numbers here (nor any republican for that matter), but DeSantis is a far better fit for Utah than Trump, so I could see R+30 as a reasonable prediction. R+25 at the very least.

[Chips]

Trump: R+15 maybe?

Any other GOP: R+25

[THG]

Trump: R+15 maybe?

Any other GOP: R+25

I would actually argue Trump was a worse fit for Utah in 2016 than he would be in 2024 (or was in 2020).

But yeah, R+15-20 for Trump sounds about right.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

A huge part of the trend in the last two races (aside from Romney not being on the ticket of course) is (1) immigration and (2) younger voters abandoning the GOP. Unlike the Boomer/Xer Mormons, these voters probably won't return to a 2024 incarnation of the GOP.

In the absence of a major event that tilts the national landscape, the D swing will continue but will be blunted. It's still very likely to trend D.

[THG]

A huge part of the trend in the last two races (aside from Romney not being on the ticket of course) is (1) immigration and (2) younger voters abandoning the GOP. Unlike the Boomer/Xer Mormons, these voters probably won't return to a 2024 incarnation of the GOP.

In the absence of a major event that tilts the national landscape, the D swing will continue but will be blunted. It's still very likely to trend D.

What do you mean by immigration?

Immigration from out of state or Utahns being pro immigration or something? Because Utah is pretty homogeneous demographically.

[Hope For A New Era]

1) will go further left (remember how massive the partisan age gap is in Utah)

2) about the same as 2020, or bouncing back slightly right (before going further left in 2028)

[AussieB]

1) Trends Democratic.
2) Stays roughly the same, maybe slight Republican trend.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

A huge part of the trend in the last two races (aside from Romney not being on the ticket of course) is (1) immigration and (2) younger voters abandoning the GOP. Unlike the Boomer/Xer Mormons, these voters probably won't return to a 2024 incarnation of the GOP.

In the absence of a major event that tilts the national landscape, the D swing will continue but will be blunted. It's still very likely to trend D.

What do you mean by immigration?

Immigration from out of state or Utahns being pro immigration or something? Because Utah is pretty homogeneous demographically.

Immigration from outside the state - Salt Lake area is exploding like much of the other western metros and a good portion of that (but of course not all) is the same demo that flipped metro Denver, metro Phoenix, metro Reno, etc.: young college educated professional liberals.

Also worth noting of course that a good portion of domestic migrants to Utah are themselves Mormon - many of these skew young (especially college age) and are more moderate on several issues than their hardliner parents.

[THG]

A huge part of the trend in the last two races (aside from Romney not being on the ticket of course) is (1) immigration and (2) younger voters abandoning the GOP. Unlike the Boomer/Xer Mormons, these voters probably won't return to a 2024 incarnation of the GOP.

In the absence of a major event that tilts the national landscape, the D swing will continue but will be blunted. It's still very likely to trend D.

What do you mean by immigration?

Immigration from out of state or Utahns being pro immigration or something? Because Utah is pretty homogeneous demographically.

Immigration from outside the state - Salt Lake area is exploding like much of the other western metros and a good portion of that (but of course not all) is the same demo that flipped metro Denver, metro Phoenix, metro Reno, etc.: young college educated professional liberals.

Also worth noting of course that a good portion of domestic migrants to Utah are themselves Mormon - many of these skew young (especially college age) and are more moderate on several issues than their hardliner parents.

This makes sense, thank you.

[pbrower2a]

Donald Trump could lose Utah. Mormons are about the strongest supporters of law and order as there are. Of all Republicans in the history of the state, Trump is the poorest match for Utah values except perhaps for Warren G. Harding, whose level of corruption would not be known until he had died in office.

To say that Donald Trump would not lose Utah in 2024 is to say that there are no circumstances under which Utah could reject a Republican nominee for President. His values are decidedly un-Mormon.

I ask Republicans what they think most Democrats would think of a Democratic President who lost the election had pulled such a stunt as Trump did.

[Tekken_Guy]

Donald Trump could lose Utah. Mormons are about the strongest supporters of law and order as there are. Of all Republicans in the history of the state, Trump is the poorest match for Utah values except perhaps for Warren G. Harding, whose level of corruption would not be known until he had died in office.

To say that Donald Trump would not lose Utah in 2024 is to say that there are no circumstances under which Utah could reject a Republican nominee for President. His values are decidedly un-Mormon.

I ask Republicans what they think most Democrats would think of a Democratic President who lost the election had pulled such a stunt as Trump did.

Mormons are hardly fans of “defund the police” or abortion.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Romney is on the ballot in 2024 game over

[Make America Grumpy Again]

Romney is on the ballot in 2024 game over

That's if Romney can survive the GOP primary.

[Make America Grumpy Again]

My guess is that it'll vote Republican by the upper teens-low 20's if Trump is the nominee and somewhere in the higher 20s if Trump is not the nominee. Even though it's trending Democratic like the region, there's enough Republican voters that unless there's a Christian Left movement, it won't flip for a while, as Mormons tend to be socially conservative. At the same time, I can see the case for Utah being the reverse Indiana if SLC grows fast enough and the hatred of the GOP becomes greater than their dissatisfaction of the Democratic party's views on social issues.

[pbrower2a]

Romney is on the ballot in 2024 game over

Romney messes up things for Republicans in a huge number of states (and not only Utah) if he runs on a third-party candidacy. 

Trump is the worst-performing Republican nominee for President in Utah since... Tom Dewey in 1948! Goldwater came close to winning in a 50-49 split in 1964.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

66-32 R assuming a Harris vs DeSantis race.

[bayareabay]

Utah will probably trend slightly left in 2024. Utah is a fast growing state and Salt Lake and Utah counties are becoming more diverse and moving away from the GOP.

[TDAS04]

It should trend a little to the left if Trump is the nominee, a little to the right if not.