Political future of North Carolina?

[GregTheGreat657]

I've heard some people say that the state will trend to the left, but I've heard others say that it will stay a swing state. What do you guys think?

[South Dakota Democrat]

Stay a swing state, I think. The trends in the state seem to cancel each other out.

[Person Man]

It really depends on what is happening elsewhere. If Democrats can continue to stay at  parity or better in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and keep Wisconsin from becoming Lean R, they probably won't try "too hard" to make North Carolina more competitive.

[THG]

Stay a tilt/lean R-ish swing state until the 2030’s, where it will become a pure tossup with no R-leaning bias.

The Republicans have not maxed out in the rurals here at all, unlike in Georgia.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Stay a tilt/lean R-ish swing state until the 2030’s, where it will become a pure tossup with no R-leaning bias.

The Republicans have not maxed out in the rurals here at all, unlike in Georgia.

Pretty much this.

[Non Swing Voter]

Stay a tilt/lean R-ish swing state until the 2030’s, where it will become a pure tossup with no R-leaning bias.

The Republicans have not maxed out in the rurals here at all, unlike in Georgia.

This seems like the key analysis. 

In retrospect, it really shouldn't have surprised us that Georgia flipped and NC didn't.  As you say, GOP had no room to grow in rural areas while Atlanta kept getting bigger.  In NC the urban areas are getting bigger but that's being offset by growth in GOP margins in rural areas.  And I suppose exurban areas there are growing as well.

It does make me think TX really is on the verge of flipping because the numbers there look a lot more like GA than NC (GOP being very maxed out in rural areas).

[THG]

Stay a tilt/lean R-ish swing state until the 2030’s, where it will become a pure tossup with no R-leaning bias.

The Republicans have not maxed out in the rurals here at all, unlike in Georgia.

This seems like the key analysis. 

In retrospect, it really shouldn't have surprised us that Georgia flipped and NC didn't.  As you say, GOP had no room to grow in rural areas while Atlanta kept getting bigger.  In NC the urban areas are getting bigger but that's being offset by growth in GOP margins in rural areas.  And I suppose exurban areas there are growing as well.

It does make me think TX really is on the verge of flipping because the numbers there look a lot more like GA than NC (GOP being very maxed out in rural areas).

I agree with your analysis of NC and Georgia (I saw Georgia flipping before NC as early as early 2017 or so), but I don’t agree with your analysis of Texas.

The only thing with Texas is that it has countervailing trends (Houston and San Antonio being maxed out for Democrats even if they keep gaining in Austin and DFW). Also, Democrats collapsing in the RGV isn’t helping- even if it isn’t the largest population base, it is representative of Republicans gaining massively among a key population in Texas (and Democrats collapsing with that same demographic).

I suspect that the countervailing trends in the metropolitan parts of Texas will be what prevents it from flipping for another decade.

[Xing]

Remains competitive for the foreseeable future. I think it could become a pure Toss-Up pretty soon, since while Republicans will continue to gain in the rural parts of the state, Democrats have a lot of room for growth in the suburbs.

[DS0816]

I've heard some people say that the state will trend to the left, but I've heard others say that it will stay a swing state. What do you guys think?

North Carolina is on the cusp of becoming a bellwether state.

Democrats won three of the last four presidential-election cycles.

North Carolina, Democratic just once (2008), is just about in the middle for Republicans’s and Democrats’s rankings of best carried states.

The 2012 and 2020 Democrats should have carried North Carolina in both those cycles. North Carolina was one state away each time. It is an example of the Democrats, even in prevailing elections of 2012 and 2016, aren’t hitting the numbers they nationally were able to achieve in their three prior winning cycles of 1992, 1996, and 2008. Winning the U.S. Popular Vote by +4 is not quite enough. Democrats need a national +5 for North Carolina. For them to win three of the last four cycles…they should not be having that problem (and failing to carry North Carolina). Had the 2012 and 2020 Democrats reached…North Carolina would have joined the Rust Belt trio Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin as the only states to have voted for each presidential-election winner since 2008.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's an R state, and Cooper is term limited unless a poll shows D's leading in NC, it's R now and Biden is at 50% Approvals, and just like in 2020 D's haven't won NC since 2008 when it was a landslide

[DS0816]

It's an R state, and Cooper is term limited unless a poll shows D's leading in NC, it's R now and Biden is at 50% Approvals, and just like in 2020 D's haven't won NC since 2008 when it was a landslide

North Carolina was a 2008 Democratic pickup for Democratic presidential pickup winner Barack Obama. His U.S. Popular Vote margin was +7.26. He carried 28 states. North Carolina was the 2008 Democrats’s No. 28 best state.

North Carolina was a 2012 Republican pickup for losing nominee Mitt Romney. For Obama, he was re-elected with a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +3.86 and carriage of 26 states. North Carolina was the 2012 Democrats’s No. 27 best state.

Election 2016 was a Republican pickup of the presidency of the United States for Donald Trump. For losing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, who carried 20 states, North Carolina was her (and the 2016 Democrats’s) No. 26 best state.

Election 2020 was a Democratic pickup of the presidency of the United States for Joe Biden. He won the U.S. Popular Vote by +4.45 and carried 25 states. North Carolina was the 2016 Democrats’s No. 26 best state.

Since 1992, the average number of carried states in U.S. presidential elections have been 29 with the range between 25 (a 2020 Joe Biden) and 32 (a 1992 Bill Clinton). The Democrats have not carried more than 28 states in twenty-five years. But, even with 28 states, North Carolina is in range. It is not aligned to the Republicans. It is on the cusp of being a bellwether state. It is up to the Democrats, when they win the presidency, to stop finishing one point short in their margin in the U.S. Popular Vote and to finally not fail to carry North Carolina.

[Orangeoutlaw]

Republican favored but still can be won by Dems.

So basically it won’t change much.

[MT Treasurer]

Up in the air/somewhat static for now, but alarm bells should be going off at GOP headquarters because it’s really on a knife-edge at this point. I’m not sure for how much longer they can hang on to their unusually wide margins in the exurban parts of the state, some of which even swung/trended R in 2020 — once those start going the way of places like Forsyth, GA, it’s close to game over. I maintain that there’s not that much more potential for rural gains in this state, as there’s a growing presence of left-leaning voters in the western part of the state (mostly college students, transplants, and workers in the resort/tourism industries, with spillover from Asheville being a factor as well) and the Piedmont/Northern Coastal areas aren’t populous enough even if Republicans make further gains there.

They will need some other countertrend like retirees flooding in or dramatic R gains among non-white voters in the urban centers. We’re not going to see VA and GA zooming leftward forever (with the former close to having turned into a routinely double-digit D state) while NC barely budges, even if the trend in the first two states is more pronounced/rapid.

[Chips]

Toss-up with a very slight edge to the GOP.

[THG]

Up in the air/somewhat static for now, but alarm bells should be going off at GOP headquarters because it’s really on a knife-edge at this point. I’m not sure for how much longer they can hang on to their unusually wide margins in the exurban parts of the state, some of which even swung/trended R in 2020 — once those start going the way of places like Forsyth, GA, it’s close to game over. I maintain that there’s not that much more potential for rural gains in this state, as there’s a growing presence of left-leaning voters in the western part of the state (mostly college students, transplants, and workers in the resort/tourism industries, with spillover from Asheville being a factor as well) and the Piedmont/Northern Coastal areas aren’t populous enough even if Republicans make further gains there.

They will need some other countertrend like retirees flooding in or dramatic R gains among non-white voters in the urban centers. We’re not going to see VA and GA zooming leftward forever (with the former close to having turned into a routinely double-digit D state) while NC barely budges, even if the trend in the first two states is more pronounced/rapid.

The GOP is not even remotely close to maxed out in the rurals of NC or even many of the exurbs.

[Schiff for Senate]

Up in the air/somewhat static for now, but alarm bells should be going off at GOP headquarters because it’s really on a knife-edge at this point. I’m not sure for how much longer they can hang on to their unusually wide margins in the exurban parts of the state, some of which even swung/trended R in 2020 — once those start going the way of places like Forsyth, GA, it’s close to game over. I maintain that there’s not that much more potential for rural gains in this state, as there’s a growing presence of left-leaning voters in the western part of the state (mostly college students, transplants, and workers in the resort/tourism industries, with spillover from Asheville being a factor as well) and the Piedmont/Northern Coastal areas aren’t populous enough even if Republicans make further gains there.

They will need some other countertrend like retirees flooding in or dramatic R gains among non-white voters in the urban centers. We’re not going to see VA and GA zooming leftward forever (with the former close to having turned into a routinely double-digit D state) while NC barely budges, even if the trend in the first two states is more pronounced/rapid.

The GOP is not even remotely close to maxed out in the rurals of NC or even many of the exurbs.

The question is whether the GOP will be able to max out there before Democrats reach their ceiling in suburban areas. If the rural areas max out first, then NC will stay a slightly Republican leaning state, but if the suburbs max out first, then it's pretty possible that NC flips blue before the rural voters finally finish making the switch.

[Vice President Christian Man]

I think it will remain a swing state at least for another generation. Democrats still have room to fall across statewide (some places I'd argue substantially), although it will depend on whether or not Democrats are able to hold onto Wilmington, as well as expand across the  historically-conservative Charlotte suburbs, which while still Republican-leaning is starting to have a noticeable Democratic minority. Growth around Raleigh isn't out of the question either. Nash county, a suburb of Raleigh flipped in 2020, although that remains a swing county as of right now.

[Hope For A New Era]

the "unstoppable force meets immovable object" of #trends

[THG]

I think it will remain a swing state at least for another generation. Democrats still have room to fall across statewide (some places I'd argue substantially), although it will depend on whether or not Democrats are able to hold onto Wilmington, as well as expand across the  historically-conservative Charlotte suburbs, which while still Republican-leaning is starting to have a noticeable Democratic minority. Growth around Raleigh isn't out of the question either. Nash county, a suburb of Raleigh flipped in 2020, although that remains a swing county as of right now.

Nash also went blue in 2012. It’s a swing county.

[Sol]

It's also not really accurate to call Nash a suburb of Raleigh--it has a little bit of far flung exurban development along US 64 in the far Southwest corner of the county, but the bulk of the county's population is in the east, where it has over half of the city of Rocky Mount, which is split right through its downtown by the county line.

That said, after analyzing some of the racial demographics and comparing them to 2020 election results, it's fair to say that the numerically few exurbanites in the southwestern corner of the county probably do matter to some extent in Democrats winning Nash--because the white vote is more like 15-20% D rather than 10-15% as it is elsewhere

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I think an underrated part of North Carolina's lack of a Democratic trend is the number of retirees flooding into the state.  I remember seeing an exit poll in 2016 that showed that recent transplants actually voted to the right of the state and similar to native-born North Carolinians (while earlier transplants were much more Democratic).

[THG]

I think an underrated part of North Carolina's lack of a Democratic trend is the number of retirees flooding into the state.  I remember seeing an exit poll in 2016 that showed that recent transplants actually voted to the right of the state and similar to native-born North Carolinians (while earlier transplants were much more Democratic).

Oh yeah. Even Charlotte and Raleigh have a surprisingly high amount of retirees and even some conservative transplants (though they're canceled out by the woke suburbanites).

[Person Man]

I think an underrated part of North Carolina's lack of a Democratic trend is the number of retirees flooding into the state.  I remember seeing an exit poll in 2016 that showed that recent transplants actually voted to the right of the state and similar to native-born North Carolinians (while earlier transplants were much more Democratic).

Oh yeah. Even Charlotte and Raleigh have a surprisingly high amount of retirees and even some conservative transplants (though they're canceled out by the woke suburbanites).

So a lot of the same stuff that is going on in Florida. With changing economics and demographics, relying on 60 year-olds who used to make $60000 a year balancing spreadsheets or welding together trailer hitches or whatever and saved half a million or a million or two dollars coming in from Connecticut or Ohio to get away from all the refugees and migrant workers who have moved in and want to vote down raises for school teachers to teach kids they don't have anymore may or may not stop paying dividends.

The big issue is whether today's 50 year-olds or 30 year-olds will behave the same way.

Ultimately, if Democrats lose the rust belt in 2024 and 2028, they will probably do whatever it takes to make up for the loses elsewhere.

[THG]

I think an underrated part of North Carolina's lack of a Democratic trend is the number of retirees flooding into the state.  I remember seeing an exit poll in 2016 that showed that recent transplants actually voted to the right of the state and similar to native-born North Carolinians (while earlier transplants were much more Democratic).

Oh yeah. Even Charlotte and Raleigh have a surprisingly high amount of retirees and even some conservative transplants (though they're canceled out by the woke suburbanites).

So a lot of the same stuff that is going on in Florida. With changing economics and demographics, relying on 60 year-olds who used to make $60000 a year balancing spreadsheets or welding together trailer hitches or whatever and saved half a million or a million or two dollars coming in from Connecticut or Ohio to get away from all the refugees and migrant workers who have moved in and want to vote down raises for school teachers to teach kids they don't have anymore may or may not stop paying dividends.

The big issue is whether today's 50 year-olds or 30 year-olds will behave the same way.

Ultimately, if Democrats lose the rust belt in 2024 and 2028, they will probably do whatever it takes to make up for the loses elsewhere.

Florida has considerably less tech bros per capita than NC, and a far greater ratio of the transplants there are conservatives, whereas NC and Texas are more split.

That’s why most metro areas outside of the Northern Orlando Suburbs (Seminole) and Duval didn’t really trend left in Florida (most trended right), whereas NC and Texas saw a considerably greater leftward suburban shift.

[Person Man]

I think an underrated part of North Carolina's lack of a Democratic trend is the number of retirees flooding into the state.  I remember seeing an exit poll in 2016 that showed that recent transplants actually voted to the right of the state and similar to native-born North Carolinians (while earlier transplants were much more Democratic).

Oh yeah. Even Charlotte and Raleigh have a surprisingly high amount of retirees and even some conservative transplants (though they're canceled out by the woke suburbanites).

So a lot of the same stuff that is going on in Florida. With changing economics and demographics, relying on 60 year-olds who used to make $60000 a year balancing spreadsheets or welding together trailer hitches or whatever and saved half a million or a million or two dollars coming in from Connecticut or Ohio to get away from all the refugees and migrant workers who have moved in and want to vote down raises for school teachers to teach kids they don't have anymore may or may not stop paying dividends.

The big issue is whether today's 50 year-olds or 30 year-olds will behave the same way.

Ultimately, if Democrats lose the rust belt in 2024 and 2028, they will probably do whatever it takes to make up for the loses elsewhere.

Florida has considerably less tech bros per capita than NC, and a far greater ratio of the transplants there are conservatives, whereas NC and Texas are more split.

That’s why most metro areas outside of the Northern Orlando Suburbs (Seminole) and Duval didn’t really trend left in Florida (most trended right), whereas NC and Texas saw a considerably greater leftward suburban shift.

I was asking if Gen-X or Millennials will have a tendency to move in to the sun belt once they get older and whether their priorities will be the same as Boomer retirees - cheap taxes to protect fixed incomes.