CA Recall - Berkeley IGS/LA Times: No +3 (LV), +15 (RV), Elder leads replacements

[Skye]

Likely Voters:

No 50
Yes 47

Registered Voters

No 51
Yes 36

Replacement poll:

Elder 18
Cox 10
Faulconer 10
Kiley 5
Paffrath 3
Jenner 3
Others 11
Undecided 40

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-07-27/likely-california-voters-now-almost-evenly-split-on-newsom-recall-poll-finds

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah it looks like Newsom is gonna be saved

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

This poll is probably causing heart attacks in Sacramento.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This poll is probably causing heart attacks in Sacramento.

Why, 600 wasn't paid to everyone, and everyone needed a stimulus check, anyways if Newsom, there was s another Election next yr and a better D will win because it's not much the Rs can do with a Supermajority D State Legislature

It's secret ballot, I might vote to recall Newsom

Villigosa or Tom Steyer runs next yr if Newsom looses

[wbrocks67]

That LV screen is..... something

[Mail-order President]

If Newsom can't get a No margin above 10%, that's honestly pathetic for a Democrat in a Biden +30 state. It's also an ominous sign for Democrats in 2022.

[DrScholl]

This is really a turnout based election. A lot of Democrats could stay home thinking that the recall is a joke that won't pass and that is what Newsom's campaign has to work on.

[Matty]

This election is starting to remind me of the 2013 VA governor race and the 2014 VA senator race.

Dems win but by a underperforming margin due to complacency.

Here is a question:

does orange county vote to recall?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's likely Gavin Newsom is gonna win reelection because Elders isn't that well known

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We gotta wait for a poll Near Election day, the Orange Suburbs are gonna determine the fate of this race, abd it will determine the fate of how many Rs loose in CA in 2022

[Cyrusman]

This election is starting to remind me of the 2013 VA governor race and the 2014 VA senator race.

Dems win but by a underperforming margin due to complacency.

Here is a question:

does orange county vote to recall?

Absolutely
I’d bet my life savings Orange County will vote to recall. I live hear and he is really not liked in OC. He barely and I mean barely carried the county against John Cox in 2018.

[wbrocks67]

I think it's getting very lost in here that it's literally No +15 with Registered Voters. And every registered voter is getting a ballot sent to them...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Alot of Newsom problem is homelessness and Housing and he hasn't done enough to end it and surging gas prices. He didn't give 600 Stimulus to everyone and we must see a poll right before Election Day, but it will be an upset if he is recalled

Tom Steyer or Villigosa will run next yr if Newsom looses to Larry Elder

Warnock is gonna have the sake problem with Herschel Walker

The State Legislature is Supermajority D anyways, it's not much Rs can do in Cali anyways

Would I be glad that Newsom is gone, you bet, he is Gray Davis

If Newsom looses watch out for VA, the negative Press will be so bad it will have a carry over effect to Va