Rate Adams County, Co

[Pink Panther]

Adams County is somewhat educated, while having a significant Working Class. It voted for Biden by 16% in 2020. What do you think will happen in 2024?

[Chips]

I'll say Safe D but I feel like if a Republican wins a statewide race in Colorado this decade or in the future, a win would include this county.

[Calthrina950]

I'll say Safe D but I feel like if a Republican wins a statewide race in Colorado this decade or in the future, a win would include this county.

I agree. Adams County, in contrast to Arapahoe, Broomfield, and Jefferson, has clearly trended to the right over the past two decades. Biden actually did slightly worse in this county last year than Obama did in 2012, and noticeably worse than Obama did in 2008. I wouldn't be surprised if Adams County were to vote Republican down the road in a future statewide win for that party.

[Builder Refused]

This IS the only county in CO over 100,000, beside Pueblo, that swung R from 2012 to 2020 but based on demographic assumptions, unless there some educated flight from or rural flight to Adams county, I don’t see why it over most other counties would flip in the future. I buy it as Rep win county but not in terms of realignment, just a fluke or a MA situation. Like there’s Lorain and Mahoning in Ohio, sure, but what’s the migration situation. A realignment toward Republican isn’t one necessarily that involves county flips, I don’t really think a vast turnout difference or shrinking Dem margins will cause it either, I just don’t hear much about Reps moving to inner suburbs, or really at all. All the hype is around Blorgia so I could be ignorant to other migrations

[Thunder98]

This IS the only county in CO over 100,000, beside Pueblo, that swung R from 2012 to 2020 but based on demographic assumptions, unless there some educated flight from or rural flight to Adams county, I don’t see why it over most other counties would flip in the future. I buy it as Rep win county but not in terms of realignment, just a fluke or a MA situation. Like there’s Lorain and Mahoning in Ohio, sure, but what’s the migration situation. A realignment toward Republican isn’t one necessarily that involves county flips, I don’t really think a vast turnout difference or shrinking Dem margins will cause it either, I just don’t hear much about Reps moving to inner suburbs, or really at all. All the hype is around Blorgia so I could be ignorant to other migrations

Adams County actually did not swung R in 2020.

It went from +8.5 Clinton in 2016 to +16.3 Biden in 2020.

[Builder Refused]

That’s not what I said. I’m saying Biden did worse than Obama, not worse than Clinton
You can see if you search 2012 2020 presidential swing atlasafterdark

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Safe D, and long term the leftward trend will stall but it won't reverse.

"Working class" here is mostly a euphemism for Hispanic, where there isn't just an ag presence here but also Federal Heights and Commerce City have become Hispanic enclaves bleeding over from Denver's western and northern sides. So we aren't talking about the stereotypical Obama-Trump WWC voter - the trend here will depend on the overall trends for Hispanic voters (although CO Dems mobilized Hispanics statewide much much more effectively in 2020 than the national party did).

But Thornton, Northglenn and Westminster are whiter and have a more professional, college educated workforce that are more stereotypical of the liberal Colorado suburbs. In the absence of another realignment (or some sort of college educated flight) these towns will anchor the county and prevent it from flipping even if there is a Hispanic R surge.

The county's geography isn't well suited for expansion - much of the western portion close to the city is already developed save for some slivers on the boundary with Weld, and the eastern portions of the county closest to the other developed areas are either occupied by holdings like Rocky Mountain Arsenal and DIA or are close enough to the airport to be ill-suited for profitable development. Arapahoe actually still has room for growth because there's some area south of Aurora that's being developed like crazy right now.

[Adam Griffin]

It's voted 16-18 points in favor of 3 of the last 4 Democratic nominees. It even voted for Bill both times by double digits. The last R it voted for was Reagan.

Obviously safe.

[Builder Refused]

The county's geography isn't well suited for expansion - much of the western portion close to the city is already developed save for some slivers on the boundary with Weld, and the eastern portions of the county closest to the other developed areas are either occupied by holdings like Rocky Mountain Arsenal and DIA or are close enough to the airport to be ill-suited for profitable development. Arapahoe actually still has room for growth because there's some area south of Aurora that's being developed like crazy right now.

I’m curious what’s a few articles that you’ve gleaned all this from. The stuff about the cities too, I find it weird how overemphasized swing voters are on here, it seems to be mostly growth, stagnation, and engagement. Which the third I think is the most contentious as to what increases or decreases it, and often the argument over engagement is the least engaging thing that you could possibly think of ever participating in ever, especially between people who are already engaged

[AGA]

Even Gore and Kerry won this county. Safe D.

[MarkD]

Even Gore and Kerry won this county. Safe D.

I agree, and when you consider the fact that Arapahoe and Jefferson Counties voted for Bush in those two elections, that makes it clearer that Adams County will consistently vote Democratic.

[DS0816]

Adams County, Colorado has carried for the Democrats since 1988.

In 2016 and 2020, Adams County, with its county seat Brighton, delivered margins within five percentage points from the state of Colorado.

This wasn’t the case with the presidential-election cycles of 1988 to 2012. Colorado carried Republican in 1988, 1996, 2000, and 2004. It carried Democratic in 1992, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. The state realigned to the Democrats beginning with a Democratic pickup-winning Barack Obama in 2008.

Here were the last two presidential-election results:

ELECTION 2016
• Colorado: D+4.91
• Adams County: D+8.51
(Spread: 3.60)

ELECTION 2020
• Colorado: D+13.50
• Adams County: D+16.28
(Spread: 2.78)


This may be a new pattern in which Adams County is a bellwether county to the state of Colorado.

[Make America Grumpy Again]

My feeling is that Biden would win it again. While he may lose some working class support, he'll have enough college educated and suburban voters to win again.