Ron DeSantis' 2024 road just hit a major Covid-19 bump

[DabbingSanta]

As a conservative, I can tell you that no one cares about this.  The COVID pandemic has been going on now for 500 days.  Yes, people have died, and that's sad, but the pandemic has hit every part of the world hard no matter how few or many restrictions have been implemented.  The reality is that many of us, myself included, believe that masks, lockdowns, and other health measures do not work, and they also cause great economic and societal damage.  I personally do not trust the "science" that suggests otherwise.

[Figueira]

The Scott Walker of 2024.

[McGarnagle]

As a conservative, I can tell you that no one cares about this.  The COVID pandemic has been going on now for 500 days.  Yes, people have died, and that's sad, but the pandemic has hit every part of the world hard no matter how few or many restrictions have been implemented.  The reality is that many of us, myself included, believe that masks, lockdowns, and other health measures do not work, and they also cause great economic and societal damage.  I personally do not trust the "science" that suggests otherwise.

If conservatives are largely the ones getting sick and dying because more of them are refusing to mask up and follow safety guidelines, isn't that self-defeating for their political prospects going forward? Can't vote if you're dead and all.

[Non Swing Voter]

As a conservative, I can tell you that no one cares about this.  The COVID pandemic has been going on now for 500 days.  Yes, people have died, and that's sad, but the pandemic has hit every part of the world hard no matter how few or many restrictions have been implemented.  The reality is that many of us, myself included, believe that masks, lockdowns, and other health measures do not work, and they also cause great economic and societal damage.  I personally do not trust the "science" that suggests otherwise.

Sure, your fellow conservatives don't care.  But it will haunt him in the general election.  He's now unelectable for a general election.  

It's also not true that the virus has hit every place hard regardless of restrictions implemented.  There are clearly differences in the number of hospitalizations in areas that took it seriously and got people vaccinated versus say the South where it's currently raging out of control.  If you look at some of the Asian countries which immediately masked up their death rate is much much lower.

In some cases blue areas like New York got hit just as hard as red areas like Florida (currently) but that's obviously because the virus was spreading before people realized there was a crisis.  Red states like Florida have no excuse, they had advanced notice and could have prepared but chose not to.

[Non Swing Voter]

As a conservative, I can tell you that no one cares about this.  The COVID pandemic has been going on now for 500 days.  Yes, people have died, and that's sad, but the pandemic has hit every part of the world hard no matter how few or many restrictions have been implemented.  The reality is that many of us, myself included, believe that masks, lockdowns, and other health measures do not work, and they also cause great economic and societal damage.  I personally do not trust the "science" that suggests otherwise.

If conservatives are largely the ones getting sick and dying because more of them are refusing to mask up and follow safety guidelines, isn't that self-defeating for their political prospects going forward? Can't vote if you're dead and all.

Maybe if some researchers conducted a study showing that unborn babies were harmed by covid Republicans would suddenly care about this pandemic.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

As a conservative, I can tell you that no one cares about this.  The COVID pandemic has been going on now for 500 days.  Yes, people have died, and that's sad, but the pandemic has hit every part of the world hard no matter how few or many restrictions have been implemented.  The reality is that many of us, myself included, believe that masks, lockdowns, and other health measures do not work, and they also cause great economic and societal damage.  I personally do not trust the "science" that suggests otherwise.

If conservatives are largely the ones getting sick and dying because more of them are refusing to mask up and follow safety guidelines, isn't that self-defeating for their political prospects going forward? Can't vote if you're dead and all.

Maybe if some researchers conducted a study showing that unborn babies were harmed by covid Republicans would suddenly care about this pandemic.

Doubtful. Republicultists don't give a damn about babies, whether they've been born yet or not.

Now, if the pandemic somehow gave women more control over their own bodies... well, then the GOP would be demanding the government force universal vaccination at gunpoint.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nah, he is still popular

[Person Man]

All I have to say is that if he does get nominated in 2024, he has charisma. He might not have Reagan's class and particular kind of humor that everyone likes, Clinton or Bush style folksiness, Obama's sing-song stoicism  or Trump's gangster swagger, but he might definitely have something. He may or may not be a good governor. That's not going to do it.   

[batman]

It doesn't matter. Florida is still trending right.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The Scott Walker of 2024.

He is like 2012 Tim Pawlenty.

[MARGINS6729]

Just out of curiosity...what does this board want desantis to do?

Florida isn't any more "open" than other states. It has as many "restrictions" right now as california.

And desantis has been very pro-vaccine.

Why is it his fault that a bunch of idiots didn't get the vaccine?

also, calfiornia's growth rate in cases is on par with florida's right now. San Fran just recorded the highest testing positivity rate since records began. 

Nevada is a mess right now too.

If desantis is to blame for florida's current surge, why isn't newsom to blame? He lifted all restrictions on 6/15.

But more imporantly.


WHY IS THIS BOARD TREATING UNVACCINATED COVID DEAD PEOPLE AS VICTIMS? THEY MADE THE CHOICE TO NOT GET A FREE MIRACLE SERUM AND THEY PAID THE PRICE. THEY ARE VICTIMS THE SAME WAY A RUSSIAN ROULETTE PLAYER IS A VICTIM.

Yes, DeSantis selling ''Don't Fauci my Florida'' merchandise, not wearing a mask, trying to ban local mask mandates, etc is very pro vaccine. He can go to vaccination sites all he wants but his Fox News oriented, ''I love Trump'' rhetoric is not encouraging people to get vaccinated. 

[DabbingSanta]

As a conservative, I can tell you that no one cares about this.  The COVID pandemic has been going on now for 500 days.  Yes, people have died, and that's sad, but the pandemic has hit every part of the world hard no matter how few or many restrictions have been implemented.  The reality is that many of us, myself included, believe that masks, lockdowns, and other health measures do not work, and they also cause great economic and societal damage.  I personally do not trust the "science" that suggests otherwise.

If conservatives are largely the ones getting sick and dying because more of them are refusing to mask up and follow safety guidelines, isn't that self-defeating for their political prospects going forward? Can't vote if you're dead and all.

Maybe if some researchers conducted a study showing that unborn babies were harmed by covid Republicans would suddenly care about this pandemic.

Doubtful. Republicultists don't give a damn about babies, whether they've been born yet or not.

Now, if the pandemic somehow gave women more control over their own bodies... well, then the GOP would be demanding the government force universal vaccination at gunpoint.

HAHAHAHAHA, you are so funny! ROFL LMAO. Do you get your comedy skills from Trevor Noah?

[Hope For A New Era]

As others have said, this won't matter. COVID didn't matter electorally in 2020, and that was near the peak of the pandemic. It's deplorable, but that's just the way it is.

What planet are you from?

He's from Earth.

The 2020 results were in line with polls from before the pandemic. We really are that polarized. Fox News politicized the pandemic, and because of that, it instantly didn't matter.

[DabbingSanta]

As others have said, this won't matter. COVID didn't matter electorally in 2020, and that was near the peak of the pandemic. It's deplorable, but that's just the way it is.

What planet are you from?

He's from Earth.

The 2020 results were in line with polls from before the pandemic. We really are that polarized. Fox News politicized the pandemic, and because of that, it instantly didn't matter.

Fox News didn't issue mask mandates or lockdown society.  This crisis was politicized from the start.

[Pericles]

Covid was a long-running event so it's hard to pick up the effect from the polls, but I think it has to have hurt Trump somewhat. It was a major crisis that he bungled (and the polls showed beyond a narrow margin that people didn't like his response to it) and now something had gone wrong for ordinary people, Trump couldn't just run on a 'great economy'. My guess is that pre-Covid Biden was on track to win the PV by 2-3 points, while losing the election, and if Trump had come across better in his Covid response and worn masks more he would have gotten some of the usual incumbency boost and perhaps lose the popular vote by 0-1 points. Polarisation/stability in views of Trump was so high that his ceiling may have been lower, but it's very likely his ceiling was at least 0.6% higher and so he would have been re-elected if he didn't obviously botch Covid.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Covid was a long-running event so it's hard to pick up the effect from the polls, but I think it has to have hurt Trump somewhat. It was a major crisis that he bungled (and the polls showed beyond a narrow margin that people didn't like his response to it) and now something had gone wrong for ordinary people, Trump couldn't just run on a 'great economy'. My guess is that pre-Covid Biden was on track to win the PV by 2-3 points, while losing the election, and if Trump had come across better in his Covid response and worn masks more he would have gotten some of the usual incumbency boost and perhaps lose the popular vote by 0-1 points. Polarisation/stability in views of Trump was so high that his ceiling may have been lower, but it's very likely his ceiling was at least 0.6% higher and so he would have been re-elected if he didn't obviously botch Covid.

The polls in March 2020 had Biden up around 5%. If you take off 3% due to the Trump over performance in polls then you get to a Biden PV win of 2%, but losing the electoral college.

[Pericles]

Covid was a long-running event so it's hard to pick up the effect from the polls, but I think it has to have hurt Trump somewhat. It was a major crisis that he bungled (and the polls showed beyond a narrow margin that people didn't like his response to it) and now something had gone wrong for ordinary people, Trump couldn't just run on a 'great economy'. My guess is that pre-Covid Biden was on track to win the PV by 2-3 points, while losing the election, and if Trump had come across better in his Covid response and worn masks more he would have gotten some of the usual incumbency boost and perhaps lose the popular vote by 0-1 points. Polarisation/stability in views of Trump was so high that his ceiling may have been lower, but it's very likely his ceiling was at least 0.6% higher and so he would have been re-elected if he didn't obviously botch Covid.

The polls in March 2020 had Biden up around 5%. If you take off 3% due to the Trump underperformance in polls then you get to a Biden PV win of 2%, but losing the electoral college.

The problem is, we don't know if the polling error would have been the same without Covid, or how the campaign would have naturally changed even without the huge events going on.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis got a bump from Surfside, he isn't gonna loose in this Environment and neither is Rubio

The D's were all set to make gains in the H and S bit what happened, Covid happened and Biden isnt Landslide Biden just like in 2020 he wasnt and neither was Hillary, they are 278

Everyone thinks that since Biden is a Clinton D he can win a Landslide the only thing he is connected as being a Clinton D isn't Landslide but Tara Reade and Lewinsky

[TodayJunior]

Am I the only optimist who thinks DeSantis can lose re-election next year? Split ticketing does happen here. See 2016. Rubio ran way ahead of trump.

[BlueSwan]

As others have said, this won't matter. COVID didn't matter electorally in 2020, and that was near the peak of the pandemic. It's deplorable, but that's just the way it is.

What planet are you from?

He's from Earth.

The 2020 results were in line with polls from before the pandemic. We really are that polarized. Fox News politicized the pandemic, and because of that, it instantly didn't matter.

This. And also, while COVID may have increased turnout against Trump in the suburbs, it may also have increased turnout FOR Trump amongst the conspiratorial parts of the electorate (and energized people who don't normally vote at all). Anti vaxxers used to be primarily left wing nutters (and often minorities), but these days most of them have migrated to Qanon and joined the Trump-cult. People talk about violence and insurrections from Qanon, but likely the more real theat of Qanon is strengthening the far right by attracting the nuttier conspiratorial parts of the left to Qanon. If the election becomes between the party viewed as the sane, but "elitist" party against the insane, but anti-elitist party, I'm not so confident that the sane party wins, unfortunately. People are just THAT stupid and when you combine the stupid with the cynical you may not be able to stop them, as we have seen in the past.

So COVID most certainly had an IMPACT on the 2020 election, but in my view did not CAUSE Trump to lose, but rather energized voters on both sides and shook up the electorate in general. In 2024, with less motivation to vote against Trump and possible fatigue with Biden, it looks far from certain that disaster can be avoided.

[pbrower2a]

Bumps in a road, such as a two-by-four dropped onto the road, can flip a motorcycle and cause a fatal accident.

[Person Man]

As others have said, this won't matter. COVID didn't matter electorally in 2020, and that was near the peak of the pandemic. It's deplorable, but that's just the way it is.

What planet are you from?

He's from Earth.

The 2020 results were in line with polls from before the pandemic. We really are that polarized. Fox News politicized the pandemic, and because of that, it instantly didn't matter.

This. And also, while COVID may have increased turnout against Trump in the suburbs, it may also have increased turnout FOR Trump amongst the conspiratorial parts of the electorate (and energized people who don't normally vote at all). Anti vaxxers used to be primarily left wing nutters (and often minorities), but these days most of them have migrated to Qanon and joined the Trump-cult. People talk about violence and insurrections from Qanon, but likely the more real theat of Qanon is strengthening the far right by attracting the nuttier conspiratorial parts of the left to Qanon. If the election becomes between the party viewed as the sane, but "elitist" party against the insane, but anti-elitist party, I'm not so confident that the sane party wins, unfortunately. People are just THAT stupid and when you combine the stupid with the cynical you may not be able to stop them, as we have seen in the past.

So COVID most certainly had an IMPACT on the 2020 election, but in my view did not CAUSE Trump to lose, but rather energized voters on both sides and shook up the electorate in general. In 2024, with less motivation to vote against Trump and possible fatigue with Biden, it looks far from certain that disaster can be avoided.

Even if Republicans win in 2022 and even by a lot, doesn't mean they won't lose 2024 or even improve.

[Real Texan Politics]

Am I the only optimist who thinks DeSantis can lose re-election next year? Split ticketing does happen here. See 2016. Rubio ran way ahead of trump.

Rubio's expected to outperform DeSantis anyways. By how much is the question.

I still expect both of them to win by over 5%, Rubio by closer to 10 and DeSantis by closer to 5 or somewhere in the middle.

[Tekken_Guy]

Am I the only optimist who thinks DeSantis can lose re-election next year? Split ticketing does happen here. See 2016. Rubio ran way ahead of trump.

Florida is a state where Republicans outperform the presidential topline downballot. DeSantis looks set to pick up a decently sized chunk of Biden's 2020 voters, while losing few if any of Trump's voters.

[THG]

Am I the only optimist who thinks DeSantis can lose re-election next year? Split ticketing does happen here. See 2016. Rubio ran way ahead of trump.

Rubio's expected to outperform DeSantis anyways. By how much is the question.

I still expect both of them to win by over 5%, Rubio by closer to 10 and DeSantis by closer to 5 or somewhere in the middle.

Both win by 7-8+ points IMO. But I agree that Rubio wins by more.