Which of the following can win their home state in 2024 presidential election?

[David Hume]

I guess Collins and Sununu has a good chance.

[pbrower2a]

Sununu might, but only if he wins the Senate seat. Susan Collins is fading in relevance even in her own state, and I doubt that she could make much of any Favorite Daughter effect.

Ohio went for Trump by 8%, but that is well within the range of winning as a Favorite Son. Maybe Trump is the perfect R to win in Ohio by appealing to visceral concerns of white people as Romney or McCain couldn't. Remember that no Republican has won Ohio since 1984 without the surname Bush or Trump.  DeSantis has no particular appeal in Ohio, which did well under a Republican Governor in fending of COVID-19.

COVID-19 will hurt DeSantis in a general campaign in 2024 for President. He handled it badly and then tried to cover it up.     

 

[Alben Barkley]

The Arizona senators could definitely win, easily. Sununu and (to a lesser extent) Brown have the best shot of the rest, followed by Collins. I could see Tester maybe having an outside shot. The other states are simply too strongly partisan. Phil Scott, Charlie Baker, Larry Hogan, John Bel Edwards, Andy Beshear, and Laura Kelly all may be popular in their states as governors, but a presidential election is another story entirely. Just look at how badly Romney was thrashed in MA in 2012; that would be Baker's fate as well. I make a slight exception for Tester because his state was closer in 2020 than the others (except Kansas, marginally), because he has already won three federal statewide elections in his state (still an important distinction from state level races), and because Montana has a reputation for being "elastic" and prone to big swings under the right circumstances. Even still, he would be an underdog in his own state.

[Roll Roons]

COVID-19 will hurt DeSantis in a general campaign in 2024 for President. He handled it badly and then tried to cover it up.

I have a ton of criticisms of DeSantis and would not vote for him, but handling Covid is probably one of the few things he's done well.

Yes. It has been clear from the start of the pandemic that age is the number one risk factor for COVID deaths.

Florida, a state with a huge senior population, is 26th in the country for per capita death rates. That's a pretty good outcome, no matter how you slice it.

Pbrower is a blueanoner.

[Roll Roons]

COVID-19 will hurt DeSantis in a general campaign in 2024 for President. He handled it badly and then tried to cover it up.     

Can you please explain how DeSantis did badly with COVID? What did he do wrong (especially in comparison to other governors) and what did he try to cover up?

[Chips]

Sununu, Collins and the two AZ senators would all have a good shot.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Mark Kelly, Sinema, and maybe Sununu-that's it.

[_.]

Scott! Obviously he would win! Not sure why this isn't unanimous.

Tim Scott could win South Carolina easy

Rick Scott* also has a good chance in Florida.

Scott! Obviously he would win! Not sure why this isn't unanimous.

Tim Scott could win South Carolina easy

Rock About also has a good chance in Florida.

LOL I'm 100% sure OP was referring to Phil Scott, who definitely would not win Vermont in a presidential election. Literally the most Democratic state in the country in 2020. It just isn't happening no matter how popular he is there. Not if he's running as a Republican anyway.

Tim Scott of course could win, as could Rick Scott, but the only Scott that made sense for this poll of Republican politicians in blue states and vice versa is Phil. OP certainly could have made that clearer though. Especially since Susan and Mark get their first names in the poll!

Ah, I'd forgotten about that guy. In this case I agree with you.

[Alben Barkley]

Scott! Obviously he would win! Not sure why this isn't unanimous.

Tim Scott could win South Carolina easy

Rock About also has a good chance in Florida.

LOL I'm 100% sure OP was referring to Phil Scott, who definitely would not win Vermont in a presidential election. Literally the most Democratic state in the country in 2020. It just isn't happening no matter how popular he is there. Not if he's running as a Republican anyway.

Tim Scott of course could win, as could Rick Scott, but the only Scott that made sense for this poll of Republican politicians in blue states and vice versa is Phil. OP certainly could have made that clearer though. Especially since Susan and Mark get their first names in the poll!

[TDAS04]

Sununu, Mark Kelly, Sinema, maybe Collins, maybe Brown.

[Catalyst138]

Hogan, Scott, Baker, nope. Their states are just too blue, but they’d make the state closer than any candidate in decades.

Sununu and Collins are in light blue states so they definitely have a shot. Those states don’t have the kind of Dem loyalty that MA or MD have.

Manchin, hahaha lmao. He won’t even win his Senate seat if he tries for it.

Beshear, Laura Kelly and JBE are like Hogan and Scott, but worse since their Governor elections were close races. States are just too partisan.

Tester probably no, even Montana is getting more partisan and even in 2018 he didn’t win by enough to suggest a presidential victory here.

Brown has a chance, probably one of the best here.

The Arizona senators are the only ones who are actually favored in this situation. AZ is a pure tossup state, so obviously they can win.

So ranked by most likely to least likely:

AZ senators > Sununu/Collins > Brown > Tester > Hogan/Scott/Baker > Beshear/JBE/Kelly >>>> Manchin.

[EugeneDebs]

Phil Scott is not going to win Vermont in a Presidential election. He's not even a particularly good candidate on the statewide level; the only reason he keeps winning is that he's running against very weak candidates.