Likelyhood of Biden and Trump running: July 2021

[Tekken_Guy]

What are the current likelyhoods that Biden and Trump run in 2024?

[TDAS04]

Biden:
90% chance he runs again
8% chance he's dead/too unhealthy
2% chance he's in fine health, but chooses not to run

Trump:
85% chance he runs again
15% chance he's dead/in a coma

[THG]

Hopefully neither runs so DeSantis can be in the White House in 2025.

[Minnesota Mike]

Biden > 90%
Trump <50%

Barring a health crises I see no way Biden does not run. He ran for President for 40 years, no way he gives it up after 1 term unless he has to.

I think Trump enjoys all the attention he is getting now without the actual work of running the country. He will threaten to get in all the way up to the Republican convention but will eventually pass.

[Frodo]

If Trump runs, Biden runs.  It's that simple.  It is the only race where Biden's age is not a handicap.  And if Democrats retain control of the White House through 2028, hopefully the Republican Party might rediscover democracy, scientific expertise, and a fact-based world by then, and I won't have to be so scared thinking what a Republican trifecta might do in 2029.  

[ProudModerate2]

Something tell me Biden will not run again.
trump about 30-40% probability he will.

[Progressive Pessimist]

At least 75%, as I see it.

[SnowLabrador]

Biden 30%, Trump 100% unless he's dead before 2024.

[Alben Barkley]

Biden 30%, Trump 100% unless he's dead before 2024.

Awesome, Biden 2024 run confirmed and Trump confirmed not running.

[Utah Neolib]

Biden: over 83% chance
Trump: 50/50 chance I’d say

[Chips]

Both have about a 75% chance in my opinion.

[here2view]

Biden: 75%
Trump 33%

[dw93]

60% chance Biden runs, 40% chance Trump does.

[batman]

Very likely at this point. I think Biden will run again because of the incumbency advantage, Trump because he wants to. We'll see the first Presidential rematch between the same Republican and Democrat since 1956. If Biden doesn't face any major challengers, and if Trump refuses to debate his Republican challengers, there may be no Presidential debates.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Something tell me Biden will not run again.

You should seek help about those delusional voices in your head. The only way Biden doesn't run for reelection is if he is unable to do so.

[Person Man]

Biden probably runs and with Trump, it could go either way since there are too many known and unknown unknowns.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I think there's like a 90% chance Biden runs again, and all these betting markets that keep putting the number at 30-40% are totally off their rockers.

There's probably an 80% chance Trump runs again, but I think there's a pretty good chance that he just runs to try and grift money, and isn't actually making a serious play for the presidency.

[Ferguson97]

Biden 90%, Trump 80%

[GregTheGreat657]

Trump: At least 75%
Biden: 25%

[West_Midlander]

Biden 52%
Trump 55%

[ShadowRocket]

Biden: 75%
Trump 51%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Biden has wanted to be President for over 40 years. I highly doubt he's planning on an early retirement.

[TarHeelDem]

I think Biden will almost definitely run. He'll probably be in good health and have a strong approval rating when it's time to make a decision. Trump will likely be in prison by then so I expect the GOP nominee will be someone else.

[BlueSwan]

I think the chances of Biden running again looked pretty slim early in the year, but the chances having been going up and up as Biden is proving quite popular and the fact that Kamala isn't very popular. So while he initially looked like a transitional president, most of the party will probably urge him to run again barring any major health issues.

Trump is running again for sure unless health issues (somewhat likely) or legal issues (less likely) prevent him from doing so. Even if republicans lose BIG in 2022, I just don't see the GQP having the balls to abandon the cult of Trump.

So, overall there are very good chances of a Biden vs Trump repeat in 2024.

[Person Man]

I think the chances of Biden running again looked pretty slim early in the year, but the chances having been going up and up as Biden is proving quite popular and the fact that Kamala isn't very popular. So while he initially looked like a transitional president, most of the party will probably urge him to run again barring any major health issues.

Trump is running again for sure unless health issues (somewhat likely) or legal issues (less likely) prevent him from doing so. Even if republicans lose BIG in 2022, I just don't see the GQP having the balls to abandon the cult of Trump.

So, overall there are very good chances of a Biden vs Trump repeat in 2024.

The biggest obstacle to this is that DeSantis proves his cult is even more powerful and makes mutual brides of the alt-right/Q/ignorant ultranationalist flavor of the day and the Conservative Establishment for each other.