REMINDER: Ohio and Iowa are not battlegrounds in 2024

[S019]

Ohio and Iowa are Safe R, and Sherrod Brown is almost certainly on his way out, it'd take a very controversial candidate to make them competitive again (far worse than Trump, think Todd Akin-tier). Also people will pretend Tim Ryan has a chance in 2022, especially if Mandel or Vance is the nominee, and says some stupid thing that immediately draws Akin parallels, and then will pretend they saw it coming all along when Ryan loses by like 15. Rick Scott has a higher chance of losing FL than Sherrod Brown has of losing OH. I wouldn't be shocked if IA/OH moved right of AK in 2024 on the presidential level, in all honestly (In fact, it's probably what I expect to happen). Also both should be double digit GOP wins in 2024, unless we encounter some sort of massive Democratic wave.

[S019]

Here we go again with OH safe R, Lol the only poll that was released on OH had Ryan tied with all R challengers, the Gov race is safe R and so is the Sen race FL Rubio will win

You know better than to trust OH polling, especially this early. Pepperidge Farm remembers when Ted Strickland was leading at this point in 2016.

Split voting occured in OH 2018 and NC 2020

Never mind that 2018 was a massive Democratic wave, and also Biden, Cunningham, and Cooper's percentages were quite close together

Lol and don't give me that 12 pt D victory, Obama and Biden won OH, FL, NC and IA in 2008/12 and PVI was 5

Ah yes, the it's 2008/2012 forever line and coalitions don't change. I guess I should go look back at Trump's 2016 Virginia victory with the Bush 00/04 coalition....oh wait......

Who thought that Nikki Fried was gonna lead DeSantis by 53/47 lol if Gwen Graham would of been nominated, DeSANTIS would have lost

That pollster was trash and literally everyone said it, yes Graham would've won though

This pollster Coolidge thinks that Biden is gonna have a 40% Approval rating in 500 days lol if Biden really had 40% we would be losing Cali or VA or both

Biden does need anywhere near a 40% approval rating to lose both OH and IA, I know you know that.

Rs thought that Biden had a 40% that's why they thought they could win VA and Cali, NOT

Or maybe it's that polls suggest it and turnout in off-year elections is especially erratic and anger from voters who identify with the party out of power makes them more likely to turn out in such erratic electorates.

[S019]

Strickland lost because he said Scalias death was good for America,

No, he lost because OH is a red state, that may be why he lost badly, but not why he lost

Why the polls showed Ryan tied with all R challengers, if you really think D's can't win Ohio again, that is inaccurate just because a massive wave and we lost seats in the Senate

Yes, and they showed Strickland tied, they showed Cordray leading right up until Election Day and had Brown up double digits

Can we wait for polls in IA, NC and OH Senate before we assume the obvious, Trump won Mahoning County I'm 2016/2020 and OH have Afro Americans in it that's why Blks voted for Brown

No, Clinton won Mahoning by like 3, and yes Mahoning is gone long term. Also black voters are not the issue for Democrats in OH, last I checked they do perfectly fine in places like Cleveland and Akron, the issue is they've completely collapsed among the Appalachian hicks, and those votes are basically impossible to get back in our current alignment.

Clinton in 1996 won OH and he didn't win 50% of the vote

Yes, results from 1996, very useful for serious political analysis in 2021

Just wait until 2022/ when Ryan all we have to do is vote

okay, I'll wait

Midterm jinx don't matter that much because since 2002, Voters have been voting Congresses in with their Prez, Eisenhower, Nixon, and Clinton had opposite party Congresses because D's and Rs worked together, the Rs are an OBSTRUCTIONIST party

Ah yes, this is why Democrats kept their Senate majority in 2014, because Mitch McConnell was punished for saying in 2010 that he wanted to "make Obama a one-term president," ohhhh wait.......

They are using the Filibuster to obstruct not pass legislation

Yes, everyone knows this, and your point?

It's a 52/48 Senate but in a wave OH, NC and IA are our path to DC Statehood and 55 seats which is possible in 500 days, it's a long time til Election

Yes that'd require a wave, which would be quite unlikely, but IA/OH are pipe dreams, two of PA/WI/NC/FL is the actual path to 52. 55 is such a ridiculous pipe dream, it requires Democrats sweeping those 4 and winning one of MO/AK/OH/IA, lol, even in a Republican midterm, they wouldn't do that bad.