REMINDER: Ohio and Iowa are not battlegrounds in 2024

[S019]

Strickland lost because he said Scalias death was good for America,

No, he lost because OH is a red state, that may be why he lost badly, but not why he lost

Why the polls showed Ryan tied with all R challengers, if you really think D's can't win Ohio again, that is inaccurate just because a massive wave and we lost seats in the Senate

Yes, and they showed Strickland tied, they showed Cordray leading right up until Election Day and had Brown up double digits

Can we wait for polls in IA, NC and OH Senate before we assume the obvious, Trump won Mahoning County I'm 2016/2020 and OH have Afro Americans in it that's why Blks voted for Brown

No, Clinton won Mahoning by like 3, and yes Mahoning is gone long term. Also black voters are not the issue for Democrats in OH, last I checked they do perfectly fine in places like Cleveland and Akron, the issue is they've completely collapsed among the Appalachian hicks, and those votes are basically impossible to get back in our current alignment.

Clinton in 1996 won OH and he didn't win 50% of the vote

Yes, results from 1996, very useful for serious political analysis in 2021

Just wait until 2022/ when Ryan all we have to do is vote

okay, I'll wait

Midterm jinx don't matter that much because since 2002, Voters have been voting Congresses in with their Prez, Eisenhower, Nixon, and Clinton had opposite party Congresses because D's and Rs worked together, the Rs are an OBSTRUCTIONIST party

Ah yes, this is why Democrats kept their Senate majority in 2014, because Mitch McConnell was punished for saying in 2010 that he wanted to "make Obama a one-term president," ohhhh wait.......

They are using the Filibuster to obstruct not pass legislation

Yes, everyone knows this, and your point?

It's a 52/48 Senate but in a wave OH, NC and IA are our path to DC Statehood and 55 seats which is possible in 500 days, it's a long time til Election

Yes that'd require a wave, which would be quite unlikely, but IA/OH are pipe dreams, two of PA/WI/NC/FL is the actual path to 52. 55 is such a ridiculous pipe dream, it requires Democrats sweeping those 4 and winning one of MO/AK/OH/IA, lol, even in a Republican midterm, they wouldn't do that bad.

[Neptunium]

In my opinion people who say OH will go D in 2024 is definitely trolling.

This state is not a battleground anymore as it is in 2000.

Even MN has more ad spending than OH.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1182139/tv-advertising-spending-presidential-campaign-by-state-united-states/

[Schiff for Senate]

Even Nikki Haley (an admittedly poor fit for the Midwest) would secure those states handily.

Listen, Haley is not a good candidate electorally, but even then, this is an atrocious map. She would win OH/IA by 5 or so points, possibly lean margins.

Also, Ron DeSantis would win OH/IA by 10+ percentage points.

Ha! Trump won both those states by 8 points, and you're quite frankly delusional if you think DeSantis is more popular than Trump among the voters of Iowa and Ohio. Yes, the two states are Likely or Safe red in 2024, but they won't be shifting redder, sorry. You are damaging your own credibility with such random, controversial, unjustified and unexplained prediction.

They aren't default battlegrounds but if there is a scenario where they are battlegrounds then it's a case of dems nominating the world's best candidate and the gop nominated a turd sandwich.

The latter occurred in 2020 and both states went red by huge amounts (OH, a former swing state, went 12.5 points to the right of the country). Depends on what you define as a 't*rd sandwich'.

[THG]

Even Nikki Haley (an admittedly poor fit for the Midwest) would secure those states handily.

Listen, Haley is not a good candidate electorally, but even then, this is an atrocious map. She would win OH/IA by 5 or so points, possibly lean margins.

Also, Ron DeSantis would win OH/IA by 10+ percentage points.

Ha! Trump won both those states by 8 points, and you're quite frankly delusional if you think DeSantis is more popular than Trump among the voters of Iowa and Ohio. Yes, the two states are Likely or Safe red in 2024, but they won't be shifting redder, sorry. You are damaging your own credibility with such random, controversial, unjustified and unexplained prediction.

They aren't default battlegrounds but if there is a scenario where they are battlegrounds then it's a case of dems nominating the world's best candidate and the gop nominated a turd sandwich.

The latter occurred in 2020 and both states went red by huge amounts (OH, a former swing state, went 12.5 points to the right of the country). Depends on what you define as a 't*rd sandwich'.

It’s hysterical to be lectured about damaging your own credibility by someone who is so insecure in their own beliefs that they haughtily declare themselves the moral arbiter of “credibility” in a godforsaken online forum.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Even Nikki Haley (an admittedly poor fit for the Midwest) would secure those states handily.

Listen, Haley is not a good candidate electorally, but even then, this is an atrocious map. She would win OH/IA by 5 or so points, possibly lean margins.

Also, Ron DeSantis would win OH/IA by 10+ percentage points.

Ha! Trump won both those states by 8 points, and you're quite frankly delusional if you think DeSantis is more popular than Trump among the voters of Iowa and Ohio. Yes, the two states are Likely or Safe red in 2024, but they won't be shifting redder, sorry. You are damaging your own credibility with such random, controversial, unjustified and unexplained prediction.

They aren't default battlegrounds but if there is a scenario where they are battlegrounds then it's a case of dems nominating the world's best candidate and the gop nominated a turd sandwich.

The latter occurred in 2020 and both states went red by huge amounts (OH, a former swing state, went 12.5 points to the right of the country). Depends on what you define as a 't*rd sandwich'.

Most of these types of analysis around Ohio and Iowa completely disregard the fact that Ohio and Iowa democrats collapsed in 2014 and not 2016. Democrats collapsed all around Northeast Ohio in 2014 when Kasich was leading the Ohio GOP so yah this idea the collapse began with Trump  just isn’t true . It just wasn’t a popular governor winning a landslide though:


https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2014


Republicans went from having a 60-38 majority in the Ohio house to 65-34 that year

[Schiff for Senate]

Even Nikki Haley (an admittedly poor fit for the Midwest) would secure those states handily.

Listen, Haley is not a good candidate electorally, but even then, this is an atrocious map. She would win OH/IA by 5 or so points, possibly lean margins.

Also, Ron DeSantis would win OH/IA by 10+ percentage points.

Ha! Trump won both those states by 8 points, and you're quite frankly delusional if you think DeSantis is more popular than Trump among the voters of Iowa and Ohio. Yes, the two states are Likely or Safe red in 2024, but they won't be shifting redder, sorry. You are damaging your own credibility with such random, controversial, unjustified and unexplained prediction.

They aren't default battlegrounds but if there is a scenario where they are battlegrounds then it's a case of dems nominating the world's best candidate and the gop nominated a turd sandwich.

The latter occurred in 2020 and both states went red by huge amounts (OH, a former swing state, went 12.5 points to the right of the country). Depends on what you define as a 't*rd sandwich'.

It’s hysterical to be lectured about damaging your own credibility by someone who is so insecure in their own beliefs that they haughtily declare themselves the moral arbiter of “credibility” in a godforsaken online forum.

I'm not the abiter of credibility or anything. If it sounded like that was what I was saying, that wasn't my intent. The point is, you shouldn't always make predictions favourable to the GOP without providing any facts or evidence to back it up. Yes, both states will go red in 2024, but not by double digits, and it's fine to think/say that they will, but you shouldn't just make an incredulous claim without providing some sort of evidence / reason for thinking this. And this isn't true for just you. Even some Democrats here do ovesteimate this party. I wouldn't necessarily think the state couldn't go red by double digits (though there's a very, very low chance they do), but in making that prediction, you should add some type of explanation/evidence to back up your prediction. Because otherwise, what you're doing is making predictions that are favourable to the GOP without providing any type of evidence, which is less of logically predicting and more of wishcasting. (I also apologize if my prior post to you seemed rude or pugnacious; that wasn't my intent, though upon rereading it I realize it may have been a tad crass.)

[Schiff for Senate]

Even Nikki Haley (an admittedly poor fit for the Midwest) would secure those states handily.

Listen, Haley is not a good candidate electorally, but even then, this is an atrocious map. She would win OH/IA by 5 or so points, possibly lean margins.

Also, Ron DeSantis would win OH/IA by 10+ percentage points.

Ha! Trump won both those states by 8 points, and you're quite frankly delusional if you think DeSantis is more popular than Trump among the voters of Iowa and Ohio. Yes, the two states are Likely or Safe red in 2024, but they won't be shifting redder, sorry. You are damaging your own credibility with such random, controversial, unjustified and unexplained prediction.

They aren't default battlegrounds but if there is a scenario where they are battlegrounds then it's a case of dems nominating the world's best candidate and the gop nominated a turd sandwich.

The latter occurred in 2020 and both states went red by huge amounts (OH, a former swing state, went 12.5 points to the right of the country). Depends on what you define as a 't*rd sandwich'.

Most of these types of analysis around Ohio and Iowa completely disregard the fact that Ohio and Iowa democrats collapsed in 2014 and not 2016. Democrats collapsed all around Northeast Ohio in 2014 when Kasich was leading the Ohio GOP so yah this idea the collapse began with Trump  just isn’t true . It just wasn’t a popular governor winning a landslide though:


https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2014


Republicans went from having a 60-38 majority in the Ohio house to 65-34 that year

Fair enough; the two states were taking ominous trends before (though I should remind you 2014 was a red year). But Trump really boosted it. (Kind of the inverse of how CO, or VA, had been trending leftward but Trump made it lurch leftward.) And at this point, to be honest, there's probably not many votes left for the GOP to gain that Trump didn't finally get by 2020. I'm not saying there will be a Democratic resurgence, but without a very popular Republican and an unpopular administration (neither of which is, at the moment, very likely, in spite of Afghanistan), I can't see the GOP making more gains in these states. It would be very surprising to see either state shift rightward from 2020-2024.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Even Nikki Haley (an admittedly poor fit for the Midwest) would secure those states handily.

Listen, Haley is not a good candidate electorally, but even then, this is an atrocious map. She would win OH/IA by 5 or so points, possibly lean margins.

Also, Ron DeSantis would win OH/IA by 10+ percentage points.

Ha! Trump won both those states by 8 points, and you're quite frankly delusional if you think DeSantis is more popular than Trump among the voters of Iowa and Ohio. Yes, the two states are Likely or Safe red in 2024, but they won't be shifting redder, sorry. You are damaging your own credibility with such random, controversial, unjustified and unexplained prediction.

They aren't default battlegrounds but if there is a scenario where they are battlegrounds then it's a case of dems nominating the world's best candidate and the gop nominated a turd sandwich.

The latter occurred in 2020 and both states went red by huge amounts (OH, a former swing state, went 12.5 points to the right of the country). Depends on what you define as a 't*rd sandwich'.

Most of these types of analysis around Ohio and Iowa completely disregard the fact that Ohio and Iowa democrats collapsed in 2014 and not 2016. Democrats collapsed all around Northeast Ohio in 2014 when Kasich was leading the Ohio GOP so yah this idea the collapse began with Trump  just isn’t true . It just wasn’t a popular governor winning a landslide though:


https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2014


Republicans went from having a 60-38 majority in the Ohio house to 65-34 that year

Fair enough; the two states were taking ominous trends before (though I should remind you 2014 was a red year). But Trump really boosted it. (Kind of the inverse of how CO, or VA, had been trending leftward but Trump made it lurch leftward.) And at this point, to be honest, there's probably not many votes left for the GOP to gain that Trump didn't finally get by 2020. I'm not saying there will be a Democratic resurgence, but without a very popular Republican and an unpopular administration (neither of which is, at the moment, very likely, in spite of Afghanistan), I can't see the GOP making more gains in these states. It would be very surprising to see either state shift rightward from 2020-2024.

Ohio republicans still have quite a bit to gain actually, by increasing their margins in counties like Mahoning to Doyle digits and Trumbull to 15+ points .

Also if republicans starting winning Ohio rurals like Missouri rurals they could start winning Ohio by double digits as well

[Dr. MB]

who cares honestly

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's too early to say that Iowa and Ohio are certain not to be battlegrounds in 2024 and you cannot change my opinion.

[Inmate Trump]

I agree Ohio and Iowa aren't battlegrounds.

I'd add Florida to that list too.

I think Dems would be better off funneling resources into Texas, Arizona, and Georgia than Florida, Ohio, and Iowa.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This pollster Coolidge thinks that Biden is gonna stay at 46 Approvals thru 2022, he was on pbower2A Approvals

[Schiff for Senate]

I agree Ohio and Iowa aren't battlegrounds.

I'd add Florida to that list too.

It's much too early to write FL off for the Democrats. After the 2022 midterms we'll have a better view of how FL is trending. Admittedly, if DeSantis is the nominee, FL will most likely go red, but I don't think it's agiven that DeSantis has the GOP nomination locked, especially not if Trump runs (which he still might). However, I agree that firstly, FL is not a must-win for the Democrats and secondly, that their resources might be better spent in places like WI and AZ.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Vance and DeSantis and Rubio are only up within the Margin of error Vance or Mandel isn't Portman and Desantis is trying to get rid of mask wearing for kids and kids don't have masks

Biden will be 54 percent Approvals not at 46 next yr

JD Vance 39/37, Rubio and DeSantis are up 46/43 those aren't spam dunk races, I am R outing for Ken Lucas upset too he is a Marine

Let's not pretend 2008/12 with Biden on ballot did or didn't happen only 2018 matters


It's funny that S019 believes Insurrectionists Johnson is gonna win but DeSantis and Rubio won't, lol Johnson is DOA

[MarkD]

I think both Ohio and Iowa could be battlegrounds in 2024. Both states voted for Obama twice. The Iowa Democratic Party did pretty well in 2018, keeping most statewide races within a few points and winning 3 out of 4 U.S. House races. Likewise the Ohio Democratic Party did well in 2018, having a floor of at least 46% in every state executive race, Sen. Brown winning comfortably, and getting 47% in the 16 U.S. House races, if you aggregate all of the votes. I think there is still a good possibility that Biden will be doing well in polls, and that the GOP nominee will not be as popular as Trump was with rural voters.

[MARGINS6729]

I agree Ohio and Iowa aren't battlegrounds.

I'd add Florida to that list too.

I think Dems would be better off funneling resources into Texas, Arizona, and Georgia than Florida, Ohio, and Iowa.

Democrats writing off Florida is ridiculous- Jen O'Malley Dillon did not WANT to campaign in Florida but had no choice because they knew they would be killed for not campaigning in such a diverse state and it would keep the GOP spending there plus there was a slight hope they could end Trump early but by October they knew they would lose. There wasn't even any Spanish campaign literature from the Biden campaign before a day before the election in Miami-Dade County. The GOP invested and invests tons of resources into Florida because they know how important it is to them in winning the White House. Despite the terrible choices the FDP makes, the DNC has never invested the time and the money to lock up Florida. The GOP has every institutional advantage in the state and coupled with Trump's outsized attention along with the power of the national Republican machine was unbeatable at the end. Democrats have a white voters problem and a Hispanic voters problem but there is definitely a path to winning if DEMs could just get their ing act together there and the DNC would realize how much power they could deprive the GOP of if they invested and organized the state correctly. Until that happens, the DEMs will continue to lose there the majority of the time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Prez races and statewide races aren't the same and Vance only lead Ryan 39/37 and Rubio and DeSantis leads bye 2, well we thin range and it's 500 days before an Election

[Schiff for Senate]

I'm calling both of them Likely R out of an abundance of caution.

But Likely does not equal Tossup. If Biden does win one or both, it's probably a landslide. And I fully expect both to vote more Republican than Texas, just like we saw last year.

Exactly this.
It seems like the most likely forecast of OH and IA.

[Schiff for Senate]

And yes, The GOP is not winning any national victory in 2024. I guarantee it. Big fat zero percent chance of this happening.

The Democrats, while facing an incumbent presiding over a financial crisis and a once in a lifetime pandemic....

1) Only won a presidential election by 40,000 votes (The EC decides elections, not the PV).

2) Is 50-50 in the Senate due to a fluke and the Republican base refusing to turnout because of lack of motivation (and nonsense conspiracy theories) in a rapidly left trending purple state? (The runoffs were still extremely close).

3) Is hanging by a thread in the House and actually managed to lose seats in the House when everyone expected them to gain seats!

If you really think the GOP has a 0% chance of winning a national election in 2024, you might be delusional.

It's not really that delusional when you consider the following that are going against the GOP...hard if I might.

1) Donald Trump, whether you want to admit it or not, is still the leader of the Republican Party. The base absolutely adores him and the nomination is his if he runs. Even if he, himself, is not the nominee, a Trump-ish candidate (DeSantis, Cruz, Hawley) will be the nominee for one main reason: turnout - the impossible though will be to run both to and away from Trump simultaneously to build a winning coalition in the states you need; the other side to that sword though is the slightly greater than equal and opposite reaction. For every 20 Trump votes, there are 21 Not-Trump votes (no matter who the candidate is). Dems will match turnout. He's THAT toxic to any non-MAGA member. There are VERY VERY few persuadable people not already with him or "leaners".

2) January 6. I know some Republicans dismiss this as a conspiracy, but when you think about the optics and rhetoric coming from DJT himself, it's really not that hard to convince people on the fence that we had a near death experience as a republic.

3) Suburban trends and increased partisanship. Even before Trump had taken over the party, places like suburban Philly, DC, ATL, DFW, Twin Cities, Phoenix, Las Vegas, etc. were already hemorrhaging Republican votes in this key demographic and Trump just accelerated it. 2018 has been the only election in the Trump era where he himself was not on the ballot, but his ideas are/were. Looking back, Arizona and Georgia should have been warning signs when the senate seat flipped (AZ) and the gov race wasn't called for days (GA). Furthermore, the big three WI/MI/PA that propelled Trump to victory also went solidly Dem that year. There were a few exceptions in the gov races (KS, MA, MD, LA) but on the Senate side, we've seen almost a 1:1 correlation with how a state votes for Senate and president. 2020 (minus Maine) was the same as 2016 where the party that won the presidential race was also the winner in the senate race. If you look to the future, 2022 appears to be a similar set up. I can't imagine 2024 being much different.

4) Electoral Math - where it all comes together in a heaping crash landing for the GOP. Looking at the map, this is a snapshot (IMHO where the states stand as they stand)

a) Dark Red (219) - I see no scenario in which any of these would vote for a Republican nominee. This is not only a reflection of these state's voting patterns in presidential races, but also down-ticket races, US senate races, most gov races, and state legislatures.

b) Medium Red (23) - One party clearly has the upper hand.
- NV (all state-wide races are Dem); the Harry Reid machine and Clark County turnout alone decides this state
- MI (with the exception of the state leg, all state-wide races are Dem); I view 2016 as an anomaly similar to what Indiana-2008 was margins aside; a complete fluke, and it's hard to see how Dems will be taken by surprise again here in this traditionally Democratic state.
- ME (AL); this is one where a moderate Republican can win, but it will be difficult to disassociate from Trump. Collins is somehow able to do this. She's a talented pol.

c) Light Red (31) - and this category is mostly GOP-unenforced errors but Dems are able to capitalize
- AZ; it was never really pro-Trump to begin with, especially when you look at the Romney Vs Trump-2016 shift. This is also an example of the "one-county-rule" when it comes to how elections are won/lost. The longer the Maricopa County audit charade goes on, the more they look like sore losers and the lesser the the chance some of these suburban voters are won back. Continue at your own peril, GOP.
- GA; another example of the "one-county-rule" though you could argue it's really two counties' margins (Cobb and Gwinnett) where the changes there are what is driving this state hard left (honorable mention to Douglas and Henry though not as big). With the Trump loss and both senate seats flipping, I wouldn't be shocked if Gwinnett was ~63/64% Dem by 2024. There's no coming back from that. The Fulton Co audit is another example of the longer they persist with the charade, the longer it will take to win back any suburban support that was lost.
- NH; I put this one in this category, bc I do think this can be won at the presidential level in the right circumstances. Trump almost won it in 2016 and it's small state with fewer raw votes to flip. The word Republican is not a dirty word here, but it would take the right kind of Republican to win.

Add those up and you're at 273 already, and we haven't even gotten to the real tossups.




I think it's fair to say WI/PA should be in the tossup category as those are true swing states were each party is pretty evenly split across all races. NC should be here as well due to its tiny margins statewide, but also bc they can elect Democrats at the state level.

Light Blue (Texas, Ohio) - Texas because of the ever-decreasing redness in Suburbia but Republicans are still the dominant party; Ohio is light blue bc right now we don't have enough non-Trump election cycles to see if it's truly a shift or just Trump himself.

Medium Blue (Iowa, FLorida (SHOCKER!!!!) - Though I've been confident in the ability for a wide Democrat victory to pull in Iowa, for every action, there's an opposite reaction. Iowa is one of these.

Florida - for some reason my gut tells me that any intervention by DC into Cuban affairs is going to exacerbate the vote in Miami even more than it already was in 2020. Biden may be damned if he does, damned if he doesn't. It gives cannon fodder to every Republican state wide. The slogan "Keep Florida Free" is really catching on however irritating and annoying and misleading it may be...it's working. I see it here in Orlando and i'm seeing Trump flags everywhere still. Also, there are alot of "refugees" as the GOP rank in file calls them who flee their terribly governed states to start life over again in the land of the free. CRINGE...

all that to say, Florida may actually be becoming the new Texas. Attitude and all.












SORRY THAT WAS SUCH A LONGWINDED REPLY!!

This is one of the most vapid examples of wishcasting I have ever read, but I figured out that I might as well destroy your vapid arguments.

1) Donald Trump, whether you want to admit it or not, is still the leader of the Republican Party. The base absolutely adores him and the nomination is his if he runs. Even if he, himself, is not the nominee, a Trump-ish candidate (DeSantis, Cruz, Hawley) will be the nominee for one main reason: turnout - the impossible though will be to run both to and away from Trump simultaneously to build a winning coalition in the states you need; the other side to that sword though is the slightly greater than equal and opposite reaction. For every 20 Trump votes, there are 21 Not-Trump votes (no matter who the candidate is). Dems will match turnout. He's THAT toxic to any non-MAGA member. There are VERY VERY few persuadable people not already with him or "leaners".

There is some validity to this, but there are people who dislike Trump but are more receptive to his ideas than you'd think. Don't agree with me? Look at this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Mexico

Mark Ronchetti outperformed Trump by 4.6%, going against someone far more popular in the state than Biden (though to be fair, so was Ronchetti). And Ronchetti had literally the exact same policy platform as Trump, but simply was not Trump in persona. That alone, along with him being a popular weatherman, was more than enough to cause that 4.5% overperformance.

This alone disproves your fantasy that every Republican not named Trump will generate the same amount of negative turnout as Trump himself.

2) January 6. I know some Republicans dismiss this as a conspiracy, but when you think about the optics and rhetoric coming from DJT himself, it's really not that hard to convince people on the fence that we had a near death experience as a republic.

Look man.... I think January 6th was a disgrace (sane).... but if you guys really want to make 2022 and 2024 solely about this, do it, and see how well it works out. Most people "on the fence" have probably forgotten about the events of that day.

Also noteworthy: https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/two-thirds-want-blm-riots-192600820.html

3) Suburban trends and increased partisanship. Even before Trump had taken over the party, places like suburban Philly, DC, ATL, DFW, Twin Cities, Phoenix, Las Vegas, etc. were already hemorrhaging Republican votes in this key demographic and Trump just accelerated it. 2018 has been the only election in the Trump era where he himself was not on the ballot, but his ideas are/were. Looking back, Arizona and Georgia should have been warning signs when the senate seat flipped (AZ) and the gov race wasn't called for days (GA). Furthermore, the big three WI/MI/PA that propelled Trump to victory also went solidly Dem that year. There were a few exceptions in the gov races (KS, MA, MD, LA) but on the Senate side, we've seen almost a 1:1 correlation with how a state votes for Senate and president. 2020 (minus Maine) was the same as 2016 where the party that won the presidential race was also the winner in the senate race. If you look to the future, 2022 appears to be a similar set up. I can't imagine 2024 being much different.

Ok.... do you realize that the incumbent president's party always gets their asses kicked in midterms?

If you cannot comprehend this basic fact, I will not respond to any more of the sheer codswallop that comes out of your keyboard. I am capable of, but someone who is so hackish that they do not understand that basic fact is not worth arguing with. Good day, sir, and have fun wishcasting.

I agree it may not be at the forefront of the 2022 midterms, but only people with memory loss have already "forgotten" January 6 (though the GOP would like for the American people to forget the events of that day). The American public is not as forgetful as you would like to think, particularly not about Trump trying to overturn the election result and the GOP then punishing anyone (cough, cough - Liz Cheney) who tried to criticise him for doing so.