Your 2024 Hot Takes?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said before if Covid is still an issue not mi cc h changes except divided Govt with Prez Biden securing OH and it replaces GA as a Bellweather due to Ds need Brown and Tester seats up in 2024

D's don't have to win but WI and PA Senate seats along with AZ, NV, and NH in 2022

We have entrenched incumbents in MI, PA and WI Sen seats and NV Casey, Baldwin to secure the Blue wall


D's arent winning NC in place of PA due to fact Cooper is term limited and Rs are likely to win NC inn2022/2024

The H may go R

[slothdem]

Hispanics were not an incumbency thing, that’s idiotic; Hispanics were trending R in 2018 and more newer Hispanics coming to the US are voting R at higher rates.

I'm not sure what exactly you mean by this, but if you mean that Democrats did worse with hispanic voters in 2018 than 2016, then that is plainly false. You can see this by looking at exit polls, but also a common sense reading of the results by region. There is a real 2012 -> 2016 -> 2020 trend, but 2012 was the historical democratic highwater mark election with hispanic voters. Biden was a weak candidate for hispanic voters in 2020, but this go he'll be running as an incumbent president with a (more than likely) strong economy. Matching Clinton's numbers with hispanics is probably a best case scenario, but it's not unrealistic.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hot takes?  Donald Trump loses to Ron DeSantis in the Republican primaries.

DeSantis isn't gonna be Prez either as soon as he is linked to how unpopular McCarthy and Mcconnell are, and he wants to oil drill and cause pollution just like Environmentalist warned Reagan he will lose that's why he is behind Joe Biden

Trump was more popular in 2016 and Romney was popular before he ran for Prez but when the R gets linked to R Congress, their polls collapse

Romney wasn't disliked but he was linked to Boehner and so was Trump, the most unpopular Speaker in our History

[Real Texan Politics]

Hot takes?  Donald Trump loses to Ron DeSantis in the Republican primaries.

Hot take that’s probably not really a hot take at all because it’s probably universally agreed upon: Trump and DeSantis are NOT running against each other in a primary. They are friends and allies of each other.

[THG]

Hispanics were not an incumbency thing, that’s idiotic; Hispanics were trending R in 2018 and more newer Hispanics coming to the US are voting R at higher rates.

I'm not sure what exactly you mean by this, but if you mean that Democrats did worse with hispanic voters in 2018 than 2016, then that is plainly false. You can see this by looking at exit polls, but also a common sense reading of the results by region. There is a real 2012 -> 2016 -> 2020 trend, but 2012 was the historical democratic highwater mark election with hispanic voters. Biden was a weak candidate for hispanic voters in 2020, but this go he'll be running as an incumbent president with a (more than likely) strong economy. Matching Clinton's numbers with hispanics is probably a best case scenario, but it's not unrealistic.

Democrats clearly did worse in many Hispanic precincts and counties in 2018 compared to 2016.

Exit polls are unreliable, but your statement about ‘results by region’ tells only the very opposite of your claims.

[DabbingSanta]

Hot takes?  Donald Trump loses to Ron DeSantis in the Republican primaries.

Hot take that’s probably not really a hot take at all because it’s probably universally agreed upon: Trump and DeSantis are NOT running against each other in a primary. They are friends and allies of each other.

You are underestimating Trump's egotistical personality here.  In the world of business, you don't have friends.

[OBD]

Florida is gone.

Agreed, climate change is bout to go absolutely bonkers

[Real Texan Politics]

Hot takes?  Donald Trump loses to Ron DeSantis in the Republican primaries.

Hot take that’s probably not really a hot take at all because it’s probably universally agreed upon: Trump and DeSantis are NOT running against each other in a primary. They are friends and allies of each other.

You are underestimating Trump's egotistical personality here.  In the world of business, you don't have friends.

In DeSantis’ POV though, he probably wouldn’t run against Trump since he’s practically a shoe-in to the nomination, and DeSantis would probably be one of the first major politicians to endorse Trump.

[Skunk]

Favorable trends to my party are real while everything else was a fluke.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why is there any hot takes it's gonna be status quos Elections until Covid is Eradicated and Prez Biden and Veep Harris edging our DeSantis or Trump with divided Congreses, because as long as Biden stays at 50% he is not gonna loose

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lil Biden is serving in the WH, Jill Biden loves living in the WH, Rs aren't gonna get Harris until 2028

[Real Texan Politics]

Even if he doesn't run, Trump may still likely get third place in the popular vote just based on write-ins alone, mostly due to the "Trump or bust" QAnon cultist faction of the republican base.

In fact Trump may even get a sizable amount of write-in votes in every future election going forward from the QAnon base since he's basically a god to them.

[MARGINS6729]

Hispanics were not an incumbency thing, that’s idiotic; Hispanics were trending R in 2018 and more newer Hispanics coming to the US are voting R at higher rates.

I'm not sure what exactly you mean by this, but if you mean that Democrats did worse with hispanic voters in 2018 than 2016, then that is plainly false. You can see this by looking at exit polls, but also a common sense reading of the results by region. There is a real 2012 -> 2016 -> 2020 trend, but 2012 was the historical democratic highwater mark election with hispanic voters. Biden was a weak candidate for hispanic voters in 2020, but this go he'll be running as an incumbent president with a (more than likely) strong economy. Matching Clinton's numbers with hispanics is probably a best case scenario, but it's not unrealistic.

Democrats clearly did worse in many Hispanic precincts and counties in 2018 compared to 2016.

Exit polls are unreliable, but your statement about ‘results by region’ tells only the very opposite of your claims.

Comparing presidential elections to midterm elections aren't wise especially since Trump was the anti-Hispanic candidate in 2016 while Hillary Clinton was a very popular figure with Hispanics. Democrats improved their performance with Hispanics in 2018 from 2014. Never the less, we saw the GOP make gains that Democrats should have taken way more seriously.

[Minnesota Mike]

1) All 50 states will be declared "Safe" for one party or the other by Atlas posters.

2) We will have approximately 9,356,765 threads with the format of a "random Dem/an even more random Dem vs a random Rep/ a more random Rep".  None of these threads will have the correct matchups.

3) Tulsi Gabbard, Nina Turner, Mark Cuban, AOC, Dave Portnoy, MTG, Tucker Carlson, Kanye West, and Wile E. Coyote will all be mentioned as possible serious candidates by someone on this board.

4) There will be appox 2,876,530 threads predicting Biden will resign before the election. He wont.

5) Every special legislative election with 1,000 or more voters will be over analyzed for clues about the 2024 Presidential election.

6) The 2024 election will have Biden/Harris win a narrow but relatively comfortable victory over some GOP Senator/Governor / GOP Senator/Governor.

[MT Treasurer]

Most trends from 2020 are solidified even if "Trump isn’t on the ballot," i.e., you’re not going to see states like IA become competitive-ish again (the idea that Trump had some unique appeal/popularity in this state or that it wasn’t already on track to become a reliably red state pre-Trump has always been one of the most ludicrous takes) or the RGV/South TX (including most of the urban parts of it) swing/trend D due to some "incumbency bias." You’re also not going to see some dramatic R rebound in the suburbs*, particularly in the South — GA is a serious uphill battle and probably doesn’t flip barring a complete D collapse nationally. There will be two or three notable exceptions like New England, which I think is primed to trend R in 2024 — I don’t consider those margins that we saw in ME/VT the new normal, and there’s a case to be made that Biden outperformed substantially among particular groups in that region in a way that will be hard to replicate as the incumbent (Catholics, non-college-educated but culturally more 'moderate' voters, rural/small-town men, people repelled by Trump governing like a generic R, etc.).

*I will say that I’m not sold on R gains in Milwaukee/WO(W) being a more probable outcome than R gains in the Philadelphia area/Delaware Valley or the former being inherently less likely to trend D post-Trump than the latter. It’s also part of why I don’t expect PA/WI to vote more than a point apart in 2022.

As for the Senate, I think Sherrod Brown is more likely to lose than Jon Tester and that he won’t outperform Biden/Harris by more than 3-4 points. I also believe Debbie Stabenow running again in MI makes that seat more likely to flip than it would be without her (could see her losing while a few Democrats considered more vulnerable narrowly hang on). Brown losing by more than the D nominee in TX is not out of the question and probably even somewhat likely.

[Calthrina950]

Most trends from 2020 are solidified even if "Trump isn’t on the ballot," i.e., you’re not going to see states like IA become competitive-ish again (the idea that Trump had some unique appeal/popularity in this state or that it wasn’t already on track to become a reliably red state pre-Trump has always been one of the most ludicrous takes) or the RGV/South TX (including most of the urban parts of it) swing/trend D due to some "incumbency bias." You’re also not going to see some dramatic R rebound in the suburbs*, particularly in the South — GA is a serious uphill battle and probably doesn’t flip barring a complete D collapse nationally. There will be two or three notable exceptions like New England, which I think is primed to trend R in 2024 — I don’t consider those margins that we saw in ME/VT the new normal, and there’s a case to be made that Biden outperformed substantially among particular groups in that region in a way that will be hard to replicate as the incumbent (Catholics, non-college-educated but culturally more 'moderate' voters, rural/small-town men, people repelled by Trump governing like a generic R, etc.).

*I will say that I’m not sold on R gains in Milwaukee/WO(W) being a more probable outcome than R gains in the Philadelphia area/Delaware Valley or the former being inherently less likely to trend D post-Trump than the latter. It’s also part of why I don’t expect PA/WI to vote more than a point apart in 2022.

As for the Senate, I think Sherrod Brown is more likely to lose than Jon Tester and that he won’t outperform Biden/Harris by more than 3-4 points. I also believe Debbie Stabenow running again in MI makes that seat more likely to flip than it would be without her (could see her losing while a few Democrats considered more vulnerable narrowly hang on). Brown losing by more than the D nominee in TX is not out of the question and probably even somewhat likely.

Who do you think Stabenow is more vulnerable than another Democrat would be? She did take her race for granted in 2018 and her campaign skills seem to have slackened from when she won her first race against Spencer Abraham in 2000. And how much do you think Brown is going to lose by? What about Tester, after what happened to Bullock last year?

[Inmate Trump]

Not really a hot take....

Republicans either attempt another, bigger coup after losing the presidential election in '24.

[SN2903]

1. DeSantis is an overrated potential GOP nominee.
2. Trump is underrated for 2024 because of his strength with the WWC and he wins the election in 2024 if he runs by more than 2016 in the EC.
3. Rubio is an underrated potential GOP nominee (especially in the suburbs)
4. New Hampshire and Maine at large could flip R in 2024 under the right circumstances.
5. Georgia will be highly competitive in 2024 and Rs could win it.
6. Florida is gone for the Democrats for the foreseeable future. It is the next Ohio.
7. New Mexico will be within 5% in 2024.
8. Arizona is more D than GA in 2024 by 1%.
9. Nevada is more R than GA or MI in 2024 by 3%.
10. Biden won't seek re-election. Harris is the 2024 Dem Nominee.

[SN2903]

Biden is reelected easily.

In your dreams. Dems are going to lose in 2024.

[Vladimir Leninov]

Republicans win exactly 270 votes flipping WI/PA/NV

GA votes D+5, Arizona voted D+1, Michigan is not far from Arizona