Suburban areas the GOP is improving in?

[THG]

There have to be a few, right?

I can think of the suburbs of Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, Macomb County, and even places like Las Vegas, parts of Cleveland (Lorain County), and Broward County of all places to a degree, off the top of my head.

I also consider places like the RGV or Mahoning Valley to be more exurban or rural in character, which is why they don’t feature on here.

Any other places?

[Pink Panther]

Most Working Class Suburbs or where a lot of retirees live.

[Suburbia]

Long Island, NY, Orange County, NY and maybe Miami Dade, FL

[THG]

Long Island, NY, Orange County, NY and maybe Miami Dade, FL

I forgot about LI and parts of NY. Also Staten Island.

[GregTheGreat657]

Suburbs of Pittsburgh, especially Beaver County

[THG]

Suburbs of Pittsburgh, especially Beaver County

Good catch!

[Smash255]

Long Island, NY, Orange County, NY and maybe Miami Dade, FL

Biden won Nassau by the largest amount since Gore in 2000.  Suffolk did go to Trump in 2016 and 2020, but the margin was a bit closer last year and was one of the closest counties in the entire country.

[sting in the rafters]

I-75 Corridor north of Tampa. All the snowbirds moving down have turned Pasco and Hernando from  Atlas turquoise to Atlas teal.

[GregTheGreat657]

Las Vegas suburbs, especially North Las Vegas.

[THG]

Las Vegas suburbs, especially North Las Vegas.

Good catch!

Another reason why I think people underrate Nevada for the GOP.

[Roll Roons]

Passaic County, NJ swung 6 points right in both 2016 and 2020.

Will County, IL also trended Republican last year, even as the other suburban Chicago collar counties trended left.

[THG]

Passaic County, NJ swung 6 points right in both 2016 and 2020.

Will County, IL also trended Republican last year, even as the other suburban Chicago collar counties trended left.

I’m not from that region, why would those counties swing right?

[Roll Roons]

Passaic County, NJ swung 6 points right in both 2016 and 2020.

Will County, IL also trended Republican last year, even as the other suburban Chicago collar counties trended left.

I’m not from that region, why would those counties swing right?

Passaic has a lot of WWC and Hispanic voters. Will is also somewhat more working-class than the other collar counties, and I think there's a fairly large Hispanic population in Joliet.

[THG]

Passaic County, NJ swung 6 points right in both 2016 and 2020.

Will County, IL also trended Republican last year, even as the other suburban Chicago collar counties trended left.

I’m not from that region, why would those counties swing right?

Passaic has a lot of WWC and Hispanic voters. Will is also somewhat more working-class than the other collar counties, and I think there's a fairly large Hispanic population in Joliet.

I’ve noticed that almost all of suburban areas the GOP has improved upon have either been majority/plurality WWC or Hispanic in terms of demographics.

The suburbs most likely to be unfriendly to the GOP are college educated ones, followed by those counties that were demographically completely changed (Atlanta).

[Sol]

There's a pattern of a certain kind of suburban area which swung to Trump by quite a bit in 2016--the general tendency is a historically white, often quite Catholic, middle class type area, though some of these places are a bit richer (see Long Island) and some a bit poorer (the Illinois side of St. Louis). These places are usually outside of the city's favored quarters in any case, and tend to be much less college-educated. Nevertheless, they've been somewhat winnable for Democrats because of region (this is a Northeast and Midwest phenomenon), historic ties to union labor (even if people have moved up in income brackets) and lack of social conservatism/ties to evangelical Protestantism (though this varies a LOT).

I'm thinking of Northwest Indiana, Macomb County, quite a bit of suburban Buffalo, Northern KCMO suburbs, in addition to the places referenced above. I'm sure there are plenty more.

It's worth noting that these voters are pretty radically different from the archetypal "WWC" voter--a white suburban family in Tonawanda making $55,000 a year is in a very different socioeconomic position than a poor family in McDowell County. Describing both as WWC stretches the term to the limits of usefulness.

In any case, describing places like these as places where the GOP is improving is a bit broad as well. Places like this did generally have a strong swing to Trump in 2016, but the pattern in 2020 was in most cases was a big swing back to Biden, who calibrated his campaign on appealing to these voters. Generally speaking, voters like these have been prone to massive oscillation anyway, so I doubt that any party will corner the market.

[Minnesota Mike]

Long Island, NY, Orange County, NY and maybe Miami Dade, FL

Long Island swung 7 points left between 2016 and 2020. Orange County NY swung 5 points left.

[Person Man]

I think in 2020 a lot of places where Trump did better in small to mid sized areas was all based on different reasons. Some places are filling up with older people who on live on a certain amount of money and can't make any more, can't afford new taxes, and no longer feel the need to adapt to change, other places saw Trump as bringing needed relief from COVID restrictions.

In the long run, demographic greying could explain why many places are bucking the trends.

[THG]

I think in 2020 a lot of places where Trump did better in small to mid sized areas was all based on different reasons. Some places are filling up with older people who on live on a certain amount of money and can't make any more, can't afford new taxes, and no longer feel the need to adapt to change, other places saw Trump as bringing needed relief from COVID restrictions.

In the long run, demographic greying could explain why many places are bucking the trends.

Yeah, exurban and suburban areas with retirees and non-college voters of all races is where the GOP saw their largest gains.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Adams County, CO.

[THG]

Adams County, CO.

Yeah, I saw someone post about this in the 2024 subforum.

Does anyone know why such a place would be trending like it is, especially in Colorado of all states?

[Minnesota Mike]

Adams County, CO.

Adams County, CO is not trending Republican.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Eh, Adams County in 2020 basically matched Obama's 2012 numbers. It was obvious that the third party votes in 2016 mostly hurt Clinton in that county.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Adams County, CO.

Yeah, I saw someone post about this in the 2024 subforum.

Does anyone know why such a place would be trending like it is, especially in Colorado of all states?

It's very blue collar and kinda exurban. Very much not like the rest of metro Denver.

[Sol]

Adams County is around 30% Latino also.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

According to this article: Miami, Jacksonville, Las Vegas, and Cleveland.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-12-04/how-metro-areas-voted-in-the-2020-election

Suburbs of Pittsburgh, especially Beaver County

Biden actually did better than Clinton in the Pittsburgh metro area. In fact, he came very close to winning it. Check out the article.

I actually think it’s going to trend Democratic since Republicans have pretty much maxed out in south western PA (especially in Greene county) and Democrats have plenty of room to grow in Allegheny. It also looks like Butler, Westmoreland, and Washington are trending D, even if slightly.