I'd honestly put it over 50/50 that Roe/Casey is overturned next summer and abortion does go to the states again.
Honestly, I'm the opposite, & am becoming more & more convinced that we'll end up seeing a controlling concurrence from Roberts/Kavanaugh that falls on the stare-decisis sword, perhaps in a manner akin to ACB's in
Fulton: namely, "we're sympathetic towards Plaintiff's arguments in favor of overturning
Roe/
Casey insofar as viability should maybe not be the bright-line rule that it is in the status quo, but our weighing of factors has led us to conclude that the federal right has become something of an ingrained principle of American law at this point, & we just can't really see a *sensible* non-
Casey standard that - short of overturning the federal right outright & giving states carte blanche here - we could replace
Casey's with." In so many words, I see minimalism remaining popular with the Court's most important controlling voices.