GA vs. AZ (user search)
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  GA vs. AZ (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Which state has more potential for Democrats in the long run?
#1
AZ
#2
GA
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Partisan results


Author Topic: GA vs. AZ  (Read 2257 times)
patzer
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,037
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -3.48

« on: October 15, 2021, 07:36:12 PM »

Bump.

(For referece the current result is 36-7 for GA. I still stand by the points I made in favour of AZ.)

I should add also that my point on redistricting has been proven - the AZ maps drawn by the commission seem to leave the net Democratic lead more or less the same, whereas in GA the GOP is planning on reddening up GA06 and making GA02 a tossup. In the event of a decent GOP year in which GA02 flipped, the delegation would be 10-4 Republican (whereas AZ's still wouldn't be worse than, say, 6-3 Republican at worst, with a lot of those 6 GOP seats being competitive and up for grabs in the next election).
While it's possible the GOP gerrymanders Georgia sufficiently and I can see an argument for the Dems having more hope congressionally in Arizona, it's worth pointing out this is very much a temporary thing until whenever the next redistricting happens.

Assuming Georgia picks up a seat in 2030, the best case for Republicans would be something like a 10D-5R map. Worst case for them, it wouldn't be hard to make a 13D-2R gerrymander. And the state government is gone regardless as soon as a few more Atlanta suburbs flip.

So while the Dems could do better congressionally in Arizona for the next few years, that's it.
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patzer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,037
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -3.48

« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2021, 10:23:19 PM »


The rest of what you wrote is discredited by the first two sentences of the second paragraph.


Hardly. It's quite possible to make a mostly safe 12D-2R gerrymander on 2020 presidential data.

10 years of trends later, thinking the Democrats would leave the Republicans with more than five seats seems fairly absurd.
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patzer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,037
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -3.48

« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2021, 02:34:48 PM »

The rest of what you wrote is discredited by the first two sentences of the second paragraph.


Hardly. It's quite possible to make a mostly safe 12D-2R gerrymander on 2020 presidential data.

10 years of trends later, thinking the Democrats would leave the Republicans with more than five seats seems fairly absurd.


If this is indeed the case (and I question that it is), the GOP should either gerrymander the state legislature to keep a lock on it for at least a decade more, to ensure Democrats can never activate such a map, or they should call for a switch to an independent commission just after the maps for the 2020s are decided. That way the maps would always be fair and if Democrats eventually did come into power, they'd have to either deal with fair maps or abandon their anti-gerrymandering principles to repeal the independent commission (if even possible, which it might not be).

Here’s a link to a 12-2 gerrymander on 2020 presidential data. Somewhat convoluted but this is obviously the most extreme scenario– if you’re giving the Republicans 4 or 5 seats it’s incredibly simple.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=346841.msg8274240#msg8274240

As for gerrymandering the state legislature- Georgia isn’t Wisconsin. If the northern suburbs continue to go left, there isn’t any feasible way for the Republicans to hang onto the state legislature once the Dems start winning the PV by more than a few points.
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patzer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,037
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -3.48

« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2021, 06:43:11 AM »

Quote from: patzer
As for gerrymandering the state legislature- Georgia isn’t Wisconsin. If the northern suburbs continue to go left, there isn’t any feasible way for the Republicans to hang onto the state legislature once the Dems start winning the PV by more than a few points.

Don't know definitively, but I suspect it's possible to do so by diluting suburban votes by surrounding them by safely Republican rural ones. For example, a district might be 60-40% rural, and even if it trends leftward, it will remain Republican.

If you don't know definitively, then it's probably best to avoid arguing with someone who does know what he's talking about. What you're describing here is a pack and crack, which is the basic principle of gerrymandering. I would imagine that every single poster on this board is familiar with it. The issue here and the argument being made is that this will be difficult to accomplish for Republicans in Georgia, because so many of the state's Democratic voters are in the Atlanta metropolitan area and because the periphery of the metropolitan area is swinging Democratic faster than anywhere else in the country.

Right, that strategy is theoretically possible for congressional maps as you could extend districts all the way up to the border with Tennessee.
But for state legislature maps it just isn’t doable thanks to how much smaller the districts are and how fast the area’s swinging, unless you literally want tens of really thin north-south strips going all the way from the northern border to the Atlanta suburbs, which would be entirely unprecedented and would likely upset a lot of people.

And also a real reason why GA is trending blue is because the black population is increasing in the state in a reverse great migration. Most former NYC, LA, (some) Chicago black folks who left those cities are moving to the ATL area.

You know, it wouldn’t surprise me if this trend speeds up once Georgia as a whole flips blue at the governor/state legislature level, and in the end Georgia might even become black-majority in a few decades.
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