GA vs. AZ (user search)
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  GA vs. AZ (search mode)
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Question: Which state has more potential for Democrats in the long run?
#1
AZ
#2
GA
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Author Topic: GA vs. AZ  (Read 2248 times)
DS0816
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,107
« on: July 24, 2021, 08:34:41 AM »


What really interests me is why people get so hung up on GA and not AZ - maybe GA will zoom to the left of AZ, but right now, in truth, AZ is to the left of GA. …

Both Arizona and Georgia, beginning in 2020, have likely realigned to the Democrats. (For the 2020 Democratic presidential pickup winner Joe Biden, they were his Nos. 24 and 25 best-performed states. For 2008 Democratic presidential pickup winner Barack Obama, who did not carry either state and had 28 in his column, Georgia and Arizona were his Nos. 31 and 33.)

With exception of 2004, when they were 6 points in margins spread, they have typically been 5 points or less. (Even when they carried differently in 1992 and 1996, their margins were 5 points or less.) In 2012, 2016, and 2020, they were less than 2 points in margins spread. (For 2012 re-elected Barack Obama, who did not carry either state and had 26 in his column, Georgia and Arizona were his Nos. 28 and 29 best-performed. In the 2016 Republican presidential pickup year for Donald Trump, losing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton carried 20 states with Arizona and Georgia her Nos. 25 and 27 best.)

The next time the presidency of the United States switches to the Republican column, that pickup winning Republican will likely carry approximately 30 states. (Since 1992, winning Republicans have averaged 9.33 electoral votes per carried state. 2000 and 2016 Republican pickup winners George W. Bush and Donald Trump each carried 30 states. Bush won re-election in 2004 with carriage of 31 states.) A scenario is very feasible in which a losing Democrat carries, say, 20 states and Arizona and Georgia rank as his or her Nos. 19 and 20 best-performed states. (This would make the first time in history a presidential-winning Republican did not carry Arizona.)

Arizona and Georgia do vote alike.

Related to the points I made, I have also addressed Arizona and Georgia here:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=441838.msg8079566#msg8079566
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