GA vs. AZ
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October 16, 2021, 12:37:28 AM

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: VirginiŠ)
  GA vs. AZ
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Question: Which state has more potential for Democrats in the long run?
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AZ
#2
GA
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Author Topic: GA vs. AZ  (Read 621 times)
CentristRepublican
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« on: July 22, 2021, 03:56:01 PM »
« edited: July 22, 2021, 04:00:04 PM by CentristRepublican »

Hot take: Arizona!


What really interests me is why people get so hung up on GA and not AZ - maybe GA will zoom to the left of AZ, but right now, in truth, AZ is to the left of GA. AZ voted to the left of GA, and it elected a Democratic senator before GA. It elected Mark Kelly by more than Warnock and Ossoff were elected. The reason Warnock and Ossoff were publicized is because their elections resulted in who controlled the senate. If that weren't the case I think I can see Perdue holding his seat, and maybe Loeffler as well. Also, AZ's House delegation is actually 5-4 for the Democrats, while the GA delegation is 8-6 for the GOP. In addition, I'd guess that the Democrats can't pick up another seat in GA, while in AZ, there are three suburban, Republican-held seats, and I can see one (Shweikert's) possibly changing hands if redistricting is good to the Democrats (AZ is one of the few GOP-held states with an independent commission). And lastly, GA has a 103-77 majority for the GOP in its House of Representatives, while the Arizona House is much closer, with a 31-29 advantage for the GOP (and again, if the 2020 redistricting round favours Democrats, it could end up in a tie or even go into Democratic hands).

  Yes, GA's trending leftward, but I think that the suburbs might soon enough basically 'max-out' for the Democrats (though they might continue to grow), while the Phoenix suburbs still have a lot of room for Democratic growth, and once the Democrats fully tap into the suburban voters of Maricopa County, they can win just about any statewide election. Arizona's secret is that while GA has Atlanta, outside the Atlanta metropolitan area, there's very little Democratic support outside Southwest GA (and it's waning - GA02 is only D+4 according to its CPVI) and a few urban counties (like Athens-Clarke), while in Arizona, the Phoenix metropolitan area can continue shifting to the left, and there are many other Democratic pockets of strength - AZ01, in rural Northeast Arizona, is represented by Democrat Tom O'Halleran and is a Trump/Biden district (this Democratic strength can be explained by a large Native American population); AZ02, in Southeast Arizona, similarly went for Biden and is held by a Democrat (Ann Kirkpatrick); and lastly, AZ03, based in Tucson and southwestern Arizona (including much of the Mexico/Arizona boder) is heavily Democratic (being held by a Democrat, Raul Grijalva, and being won by Biden by 27 points). If AZ Democrats can just tap into suburban voters, they could win 3 suburban GOP districts at some point - and if they do, the delegation'd be 8-1, for the Democrats (even if they win just one, David Shweikert's 6th district, which went for Trump by only 4 points, that'd make the delegation 6-3 for the Democrats).

(I'd add that one of the Democratic seats in GA (possibly where the 7th currently is) might be gerrymandered by the Georgia Republicans, who still hold a trifecta (and with no Independent Redistricting Commission), or maybe Bishop's 2nd district (though that one may be a violation of the Voting Rights Act). If they can draw out Carolyn Bourdeaux by reddening up her district, the composition will become 9-5 for the GOP.)
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« Reply #1 on: July 22, 2021, 04:54:37 PM »

I appreciate your read, but Marciopaís suburbs are moderate compared to Atlanta, and Arizona is significantly more favorable to Republicans demographically.

Arizona will be a swing state in the long term. Georgia is probably gone after 2026.
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CentristRepublican
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« Reply #2 on: July 22, 2021, 07:02:14 PM »

I appreciate your read, but Marciopaís suburbs are moderate compared to Atlanta, and Arizona is significantly more favorable to Republicans demographically.

Arizona will be a swing state in the long term. Georgia is probably gone after 2026.

I'm not just talking about presidential elections, but congressional elections as well, where as I explained, in AZ, Democrats have 5/9 House seats and could potentially get a sixth one, whereas GA has 6/14 Democratic seats, and two under their current borders (the 2nd and 7th) may be somewhat competitive. The GOP might not be able to gerrymander Southwest Georgia because of the Voting Rights Act, but in the 7th they could replace Biden territory with stolidly GOP territory and thus make the district red, giving them a 9-5 advantage (compare that to a 6-3 potential advantage for Democrats in AZ if they can pick up Shweikert's seat). And even the 6-3 map in AZ assumes just one suburban seat (the 6th broke for Trump by just four points!) will flip, thereby keeping in line with your proclamation that the Maricopa County suburban areas will not shift much more to the left.
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Chips
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« Reply #3 on: July 22, 2021, 09:23:13 PM »

GA still.
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CentristRepublican
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« Reply #4 on: July 24, 2021, 12:48:36 AM »


Why? AZ has more congressional potential, as I already said, and GA actually voted to the right of AZ in 2020.
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DS0816
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« Reply #5 on: July 24, 2021, 08:34:41 AM »


What really interests me is why people get so hung up on GA and not AZ - maybe GA will zoom to the left of AZ, but right now, in truth, AZ is to the left of GA. Ö

Both Arizona and Georgia, beginning in 2020, have likely realigned to the Democrats. (For the 2020 Democratic presidential pickup winner Joe Biden, they were his Nos. 24 and 25 best-performed states. For 2008 Democratic presidential pickup winner Barack Obama, who did not carry either state and had 28 in his column, Georgia and Arizona were his Nos. 31 and 33.)

With exception of 2004, when they were 6 points in margins spread, they have typically been 5 points or less. (Even when they carried differently in 1992 and 1996, their margins were 5 points or less.) In 2012, 2016, and 2020, they were less than 2 points in margins spread. (For 2012 re-elected Barack Obama, who did not carry either state and had 26 in his column, Georgia and Arizona were his Nos. 28 and 29 best-performed. In the 2016 Republican presidential pickup year for Donald Trump, losing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton carried 20 states with Arizona and Georgia her Nos. 25 and 27 best.)

The next time the presidency of the United States switches to the Republican column, that pickup winning Republican will likely carry approximately 30 states. (Since 1992, winning Republicans have averaged 9.33 electoral votes per carried state. 2000 and 2016 Republican pickup winners George W. Bush and Donald Trump each carried 30 states. Bush won re-election in 2004 with carriage of 31 states.) A scenario is very feasible in which a losing Democrat carries, say, 20 states and Arizona and Georgia rank as his or her Nos. 19 and 20 best-performed states. (This would make the first time in history a presidential-winning Republican did not carry Arizona.)

Arizona and Georgia do vote alike.

Related to the points I made, I have also addressed Arizona and Georgia here:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=441838.msg8079566#msg8079566
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CentristRepublican
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« Reply #6 on: July 24, 2021, 11:37:53 AM »

What really interests me is why people get so hung up on GA and not AZ - maybe GA will zoom to the left of AZ, but right now, in truth, AZ is to the left of GA. Ö

Both Arizona and Georgia, beginning in 2020, have likely realigned to the Democrats. (For the 2020 Democratic presidential pickup winner Joe Biden, they were his Nos. 24 and 25 best-performed states. For 2008 Democratic presidential pickup winner Barack Obama, who did not carry either state and had 28 in his column, Georgia and Arizona were his Nos. 31 and 33.)

With exception of 2004, when they were 6 points in margins spread, they have typically been 5 points or less. (Even when they carried differently in 1992 and 1996, their margins were 5 points or less.) In 2012, 2016, and 2020, they were less than 2 points in margins spread. (For 2012 re-elected Barack Obama, who did not carry either state and had 26 in his column, Georgia and Arizona were his Nos. 28 and 29 best-performed. In the 2016 Republican presidential pickup year for Donald Trump, losing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton carried 20 states with Arizona and Georgia her Nos. 25 and 27 best.)

The next time the presidency of the United States switches to the Republican column, that pickup winning Republican will likely carry approximately 30 states. (Since 1992, winning Republicans have averaged 9.33 electoral votes per carried state. 2000 and 2016 Republican pickup winners George W. Bush and Donald Trump each carried 30 states. Bush won re-election in 2004 with carriage of 31 states.) A scenario is very feasible in which a losing Democrat carries, say, 20 states and Arizona and Georgia rank as his or her Nos. 19 and 20 best-performed states. (This would make the first time in history a presidential-winning Republican did not carry Arizona.)

Arizona and Georgia do vote alike.

Related to the points I made, I have also addressed Arizona and Georgia here:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=441838.msg8079566#msg8079566


Agreed, they're mostly the same - what I'm saying is that the insistence of Talk Elections users that GA is bluer than AZ is completely false, at least for the time being, since Arizona (albeit marginally) voted to the left of Georgia in 2020. So until we get a solid example of AZ being redder than GA, we shouldn't presume that Atlanta will continue to rapidly liberalize (liberalization will slow down and, ultimately, stop), and that Phoenix won't - because AZ is to the left of GA (though marginally) as things currently stand, and Phoenix has a lot more potential for Democratic votes, since there are 3 suburban districts in the Phoenix suburbs held by the GOP - and one of them, the 6th, went red by just 4 points! So right now, I would say that AZ and GA are about equal in Democratic strength (as you said) - but I think that it wouldn't be much of a stretch to say it's possible that AZ actually votes to the left of GA again, and possibly by more than it did in 2020. And as I said already, AZ has much more congressional potential for Democrats (they have a 5-4 advantage they can make a 6-3 advantage if they nab the 6th), while GA has way less potential (the GOP enjoys an 8-6 advantage, and the 2nd and 7th districts are competitive; they can gerrymander the maps in 2020 to cheat Bourdeaux out of her seat - there's no more seats for Democrats to gain in Georgia, and they may even lose one: they need to focus on defending the 2nd and 7th seats and challenging any savage gerrymander the Georgia Republicans decide to pull). GA can be easily gerrymandered, while AZ has an Independent Commission that will likely not change the boundaries of districts unneccessarily, and leave each district's border largely intact. (And some people claim O'Halleran in the 1st could be in danger, but that's a Trump/Biden district. If redistricting is kind to O'Halleran, the district will become more liberal - though otherwise, with 2022 potentially a red year, O'Halleran may be in some danger.)
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« Reply #7 on: July 25, 2021, 03:19:34 PM »

AZ because in both 2022/2024/ AZ have Kelly and Sinema winning Reelection, GA doesn't have a Senate race if Trump not DeSantis are in the ballot they will win GA, not necessarily AZ, it's obviously AZ


Warnock maybe toast without Abrams running for Gov, anyways
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ultraviolet
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« Reply #8 on: July 25, 2021, 05:42:01 PM »

I agree with Arizona. Itís all one big suburb while Georgia is way more rural and white southerners will float the R vote for decades to come.
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« Reply #9 on: July 27, 2021, 10:13:07 PM »

Georgia, definitely.  The demographics are going to make it out of reach for the GOP under the current party coalitions.  Arizona has a lot of swingy voters.  I could see Arizona becoming a lean democrat state though if the GOP doesn't improve among educated suburban voters.
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« Reply #10 on: August 02, 2021, 09:24:41 PM »

Georgia might vote for the GOP one more time, but I think the growth of Atlanta means that Georgia will move left, even if the country trends to the GOP. Georgia seems to be going the route of Virginia, although Illinois might be a more appropriate comparison. Arizona on the other hand will likely remain a purple state for the foreseeable future, although I can see the possibility of Dems winning double digits there in the 2040s if the conditions are right. However, I think Trump would be more likely to pickup Georgia than Arizona in a rematch.
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CentristRepublican
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« Reply #11 on: October 12, 2021, 12:45:15 PM »

Bump.

(For referece the current result is 36-7 for GA. I still stand by the points I made in favour of AZ.)
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CentristRepublican
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« Reply #12 on: October 14, 2021, 02:23:27 PM »

Bump.

(For referece the current result is 36-7 for GA. I still stand by the points I made in favour of AZ.)

I should add also that my point on redistricting has been proven - the AZ maps drawn by the commission seem to leave the net Democratic lead more or less the same, whereas in GA the GOP is planning on reddening up GA06 and making GA02 a tossup. In the event of a decent GOP year in which GA02 flipped, the delegation would be 10-4 Republican (whereas AZ's still wouldn't be worse than, say, 6-3 Republican at worst, with a lot of those 6 GOP seats being competitive and up for grabs in the next election).
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xavier110
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« Reply #13 on: October 14, 2021, 03:49:45 PM »
« Edited: October 14, 2021, 03:53:24 PM by xavier110 »

I agree with your contrarian case. Thereís definitely an argument that AZ Dems can only continue to pump up Hispanic turnout and enjoy the Democrat-ification of educated former GOP voters who went with Sinema, Kelly, and Biden but havenít yet made the D jump fully down ticket ó but likely will, especially since the local GOPers have fully tied themselves to QAnon and Trump. In GA, meanwhile, the Ds are fairly maxed out both in terms of percentage of the black vote and for turnout rates.

 The midterms will be fairly telling. Watch as Hobbs beats Lake by carrying Maricopa, while the GOP holds the GA governorship. If someone like Hobbs, who I personally like but find a poor fit, can win, then the Ds are sitting pretty here.

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CentristRepublican
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« Reply #14 on: October 14, 2021, 03:55:13 PM »

I agree with your contrarian case. Thereís definitely an argument that AZ Dems can only continue to pump up Hispanic turnout and enjoy the Democrat-ification of educated former GOP voters who went with Sinema, Kelly, and Biden but havenít yet made the D jump fully down ticket ó but likely will, especially since the local GOPers have fully tied themselves to QAnon and Trump. In GA, meanwhile, the Ds are fairly maxed out both in terms of percentage of the black vote and for turnout rates.

 The midterms will be fairly telling. Watch as Hobbs beats Lake by carrying Maricopa, while the GOP holds the GA governorship.



Glad someone her agrees with my take, but I think it's actually pretty possible GA-GOV flips in 2022. My problem is when posters insist that GA will be a safe blue state within the next few cycles and AZ will remain a swing state - because as I outlined, I hold that overall AZ holds much more potential for the Democrats than GA. As I said, they have a 5-4 map with one potential flip, AZ06 (though redistricting might shake things up a little - but remember it's an independent commission), whereas in GA the new map is going to be a Republican gerrymander 9-4 map (GA02 being a tossup) with the very best case scenario being an 8-6 map (GA06 has been made a red seat but not red enough for it to be completely safe like Loudermilk's seat is).
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patzer
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« Reply #15 on: October 15, 2021, 07:36:12 PM »

Bump.

(For referece the current result is 36-7 for GA. I still stand by the points I made in favour of AZ.)

I should add also that my point on redistricting has been proven - the AZ maps drawn by the commission seem to leave the net Democratic lead more or less the same, whereas in GA the GOP is planning on reddening up GA06 and making GA02 a tossup. In the event of a decent GOP year in which GA02 flipped, the delegation would be 10-4 Republican (whereas AZ's still wouldn't be worse than, say, 6-3 Republican at worst, with a lot of those 6 GOP seats being competitive and up for grabs in the next election).
While it's possible the GOP gerrymanders Georgia sufficiently and I can see an argument for the Dems having more hope congressionally in Arizona, it's worth pointing out this is very much a temporary thing until whenever the next redistricting happens.

Assuming Georgia picks up a seat in 2030, the best case for Republicans would be something like a 10D-5R map. Worst case for them, it wouldn't be hard to make a 13D-2R gerrymander. And the state government is gone regardless as soon as a few more Atlanta suburbs flip.

So while the Dems could do better congressionally in Arizona for the next few years, that's it.
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CentristRepublican
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« Reply #16 on: October 15, 2021, 07:49:20 PM »

Bump.

(For referece the current result is 36-7 for GA. I still stand by the points I made in favour of AZ.)

I should add also that my point on redistricting has been proven - the AZ maps drawn by the commission seem to leave the net Democratic lead more or less the same, whereas in GA the GOP is planning on reddening up GA06 and making GA02 a tossup. In the event of a decent GOP year in which GA02 flipped, the delegation would be 10-4 Republican (whereas AZ's still wouldn't be worse than, say, 6-3 Republican at worst, with a lot of those 6 GOP seats being competitive and up for grabs in the next election).
While it's possible the GOP gerrymanders Georgia sufficiently and I can see an argument for the Dems having more hope congressionally in Arizona, it's worth pointing out this is very much a temporary thing until whenever the next redistricting happens.

Assuming Georgia picks up a seat in 2030, the best case for Republicans would be something like a 10D-5R map. Worst case for them, it wouldn't be hard to make a 13D-2R gerrymander. And the state government is gone regardless as soon as a few more Atlanta suburbs flip.

So while the Dems could do better congressionally in Arizona for the next few years, that's it.

The rest of what you wrote is discredited by the first two sentences of the second paragraph.
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patzer
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« Reply #17 on: October 15, 2021, 10:23:19 PM »


The rest of what you wrote is discredited by the first two sentences of the second paragraph.


Hardly. It's quite possible to make a mostly safe 12D-2R gerrymander on 2020 presidential data.

10 years of trends later, thinking the Democrats would leave the Republicans with more than five seats seems fairly absurd.
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