NH-UNH: Sununu +1 over Hassan, Hassan leads other opponents

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

This is not nearly as bad as I was worried it would be. Hopefully Sununu is also seeing similar internals and just decides a 99% chance of staying governor for another term is better than a 50/50 of being Senator and we can stop worrying about New Hampshire for another cycle.

[free my dawg]

Tossup is Tossup.
 Sununu having a +26 favorabilities edge on Hassan but only leading by 1 shows the limit of personal popularity in a time of intense negative partisanship.
As usual dems will try to nationalize the race and make Sununu into a Generic R.

He has already done a good job of that himself. The real takeaway is the 10-point shift in approval due to him signing a strict abortion ban into law.

Between that and the Bredesen Effect, this race is Lean D.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Tossup is Tossup.
 Sununu having a +26 favorabilities edge on Hassan but only leading by 1 shows the limit of personal popularity in a time of intense negative partisanship.
As usual dems will try to nationalize the race and make Sununu into a Generic R.

You do realize it that UNH is a D-leaning Pollster! The Polling Industry botched up everything the last 3 Cycles.

They had a partisan bias of D+0.7 in 2020.

Any University Pollster should be taken with a huge grain of salt these Days. They didn't do well at all!

Great post, you really responded to that argument well and didn't in any way just repeat a talking point without engaging in the argument at hand.  A+.

[Woody]

Likely R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely R

Ha, Ha

[Progressive Pessimist]

If accurate, this is actually slightly reassuring. But I am too pessimistic about the national environment to be completely encouraged. Hassan ought to take this as her losing more significantly and prepare anyway as if Sununu will be her opponent. She needs to take the fight to him early, even before he declares whether he will run or not.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely R

Did you know Biden has the Exact same Approvals as he did on Election night 50/45 Gallup 7/23/21 v 51(46% 11/2020 NPVI, we will have 51 D's and GA goes to a Runoff, Biden won by seven NH and we will win AZ, PA and WI

[Hope For A New Era]

Not hard to solve this.

Just run some "here's what Hassan has done for New Hampshire" ads that say why Sununu would do a worse job in the Senate despite having been a good governor, and then run some "A vote for Chris Sununu is a vote for Mitch McConnell" ads. Then maybe tie these together sometimes, say he's "certain to be a part of Mitch McConnell's obstructionism."

Done.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The abortion bill Sununu just signed is not going to go over well with New Hampshire voters. New England is receptive to certain types of culturally conservative appeals but not to any that can be construed as religious right-adjacent.

[Alben Barkley]

I assume the undecideds are Republican. Hassan probably loses by 1-2 points.

Based on what? Logically, wouldn't the undecideds tend to be democrats who are torn between voting for their democrat senator or their popular republican governor?

There's your problem, assuming a red MA avatar understands "logic." All they know is doom and bedwetting and Georgia hating. Logic is irrelevant.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Snowlabrador is a Discord Poster, and Milineienial Moderate is just like him, they believe Rs are gonna win no matter what

Milineienial Moderate and Snowlabrador said GA was gonna stay R no way GA elects two Ds and look what happened

[Benjamin Frank]

I prefer to not make predictions, especially about an election that is over a year away, but I don't know where this idea comes from that New Hampshire is competitive at the federal level.  Joe Biden won it by 7%, nearly as much as Trump won Iowa and Ohio.

I'd be surprised if Senator Hassan didn't beat Sununu by 5%.

[TML]

I prefer to not make predictions, especially about an election that is over a year away, but I don't know where this idea comes from that New Hampshire is competitive at the federal level.  Joe Biden won it by 7%, nearly as much as Trump won Iowa and Ohio.

I'd be surprised if Senator Hassan didn't beat Sununu by 5%.

My best guess is that people saw how Rick Scott rode his gubernatorial popularity into the Senate, and thus think Chris Sununu could do likewise.

[MT Treasurer]

The fact that a Democratic incumbent trailing (even if it’s within the margin of error in this survey) or even finding herself in a close race in what was by far the most Democratic of the four battleground states (GA/AZ/NV/NH) is considered reassuring news for Democrats is a little weird, especially when there’s (apparently, if one actually doesn’t treat polling with a healthy dose of skepticism) been very little change in Biden's nationwide standing since his inauguration that might have benefited Republicans. I’m not saying that this is a "good" poll for Republicans or that there aren’t some warning signs in here for the GOP, but the issue here is more that many people/posters had a completely unrealistic initial view of Republican prospects in this race — NH was never (considerably) more likely to go R for federal office than AZ or PA, and the strong/stubborn D lean of the state has really solidified during the last decade, making what happened in 2010 about as relevant to our current environment as the VA/NJ races in 2009.

Based on blue state partisanship alone, this was never going to be an easy flip for the GOP, but none of this means that Sununu's brand will be nearly as easy to dismantle as some here have suggested (the takes about how hitting him with tens of millions worth of negative ads that paint him as a Trump/McConnell puppet will turn this into a Lean D race are reminiscent of the ME-SEN 2020 takes) or that Hassan has much room for error herself (this is one of the very few if not the only state where even public polling has indicated a non-negligible erosion of D support since 2020, as Biden's approval does seem to be very close to 50/50 right now instead of the +7.5 margin by which he won the state). It should also be pointed out that polls have underestimated Sununu's strength in all three of his races, even when they got the presidential vote right (2020). I’ve always had this as a Tossup and will keep it that way for the foreseeable future, but it’s also easy to see Republicans flipping the Senate without this state if partisanship wins out (and D.C. isn’t added). I’d still bet on Sununu if forced to choose, though (mostly due to the combination of a fairly aggressive D trifecta & his superior "candidate quality", but the state's partisanship won’t make it an easy win). It’s cute that NH and IA were considered two of the "most elastic" states as recently as 2018, though — shows you what a hollow, nebulous concept elasticity/inelasticity is.

Also, the comparison with Bullock is misguided for a lot of reasons — Sununu would be a 50/50 bet at the very worst if he replicated Bullock's overperformance over his party's presidential nominee;  it took a really prolonged and concerted effort and a lot of soundbites/missteps from a futile, damaging presidential campaign to dismantle Bullock's brand; Daines' disapprovals were never as close to 50% as Hassan's are, etc.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The fact that a Democratic incumbent trailing (even if it’s within the margin of error in this survey) or even finding herself in a close race in what was by far the most Democratic of the four battleground states (GA/AZ/NV/NH) is considered reassuring news for Democrats is a little weird, especially when there’s (apparently, if one actually doesn’t treat polling with a healthy dose of skepticism) been very little change in Biden's nationwide standing since his inauguration that might have benefited Republicans. I’m not saying that this is a "good" poll for Republicans or that there aren’t some warning signs in here for the GOP, but the issue here is more that many people/posters had a completely unrealistic initial view of Republican prospects in this race — NH was never (considerably) more likely to go R for federal office than AZ or PA, and the strong/stubborn D lean of the state has really solidified during the last decade, making what happened in 2010 about as relevant to our current environment as the VA/NJ races in 2009.

Based on blue state partisanship alone, this was never going to be an easy flip for the GOP, but none of this means that Sununu's brand will be nearly as easy to dismantle as some here have suggested (the takes about how hitting him with tens of millions worth of negative ads that paint him as a Trump/McConnell puppet will turn this into a Lean D race are reminiscent of the ME-SEN 2020 takes) or that Hassan has much room for error herself (this is one of the very few if not the only state where even public polling has indicated a non-negligible erosion of D support since 2020, as Biden's approval does seem to be very close to 50/50 right now instead of the +7.5 margin by which he won the state). It should also be pointed out that polls have underestimated Sununu's strength in all three of his races, even when they got the presidential vote right (2020). I’ve always had this as a Tossup and will keep it that way for the foreseeable future, but it’s also easy to see Republicans flipping the Senate without this state if partisanship wins out (and D.C. isn’t added). I’d still bet on Sununu if forced to choose, though (mostly due to the combination of a fairly aggressive D trifecta & his superior "candidate quality", but the state's partisanship won’t make it an easy win). It’s cute that NH and IA were considered two of the "most elastic" states as recently as 2018, though — shows you what a hollow, nebulous concept elasticity/inelasticity is.

Also, the comparison with Bullock is misguided for a lot of reasons — Sununu would be a 50/50 bet at the very worst if he replicated Bullock's overperformance over his party's presidential nominee;  it took a really prolonged and concerted effort and a lot of soundbites/missteps from a futile, damaging presidential campaign to dismantle Bullock's brand; Daines' disapprovals were never as close to 50% as Hassan's are, etc.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/


Biden has the same exact Approvals as he did on Election night it was 51/46% and it's 51/43% now, we will win NH

It's a 291 map with GA looking vulnerable due to Runoff

[free my dawg]

Oh no, I don't think Sununu's going to lose because it's a federal race. I think Sununu is going to lose because he has a hard record of extremism now that Democrats can run on.

Of course, this all bets on the NHDP actually deciding to make his extremism an issue. Which they've failed to do so far (see: education).

[SnowLabrador]

Oh no, I don't think Sununu's going to lose because it's a federal race. I think Sununu is going to lose because he has a hard record of extremism now that Democrats can run on.

Of course, this all bets on the NHDP actually deciding to make his extremism an issue. Which they've failed to do so far (see: education).

Here's the thing: The Democratic Party is incredible at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. They're the party who lost to Donald Trump once and almost lost to him again. They're the party that doesn't fight for what they claim to want. When you have one party that's fascist and one that's feckless, your country does not have a bright future.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Oh no, I don't think Sununu's going to lose because it's a federal race. I think Sununu is going to lose because he has a hard record of extremism now that Democrats can run on.

Of course, this all bets on the NHDP actually deciding to make his extremism an issue. Which they've failed to do so far (see: education).

It depends on the D nominee for Gov too

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I prefer to not make predictions, especially about an election that is over a year away, but I don't know where this idea comes from that New Hampshire is competitive at the federal level.  Joe Biden won it by 7%, nearly as much as Trump won Iowa and Ohio.

I'd be surprised if Senator Hassan didn't beat Sununu by 5%.

Perhaps because it was far closer in 2016:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_New_Hampshire

[free my dawg]

Oh no, I don't think Sununu's going to lose because it's a federal race. I think Sununu is going to lose because he has a hard record of extremism now that Democrats can run on.

Of course, this all bets on the NHDP actually deciding to make his extremism an issue. Which they've failed to do so far (see: education).

Here's the thing: The Democratic Party is incredible at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. They're the party who lost to Donald Trump once and almost lost to him again. They're the party that doesn't fight for what they claim to want. When you have one party that's fascist and one that's feckless, your country does not have a bright future.

Of course. Even on voting rights in 2018, you could have made the argument that Sununu was attempting to suppress the vote and rig his own election. Over the past six years, Sununu has lowkey been indistinguishable from Brownback or Fallin on education. He's cut education from public schools to fund their budget and appointed a blatant political hack to lead the DoE. It wouldn't be enough to stop 2020, but enough of a drumbeat would have been damaging.

Instead, the NHDP decided to play a five-year-old soundbite on repeat over and over again and call it a day. They seem to be hitting Sununu more on policy nowadays but we'll see what their ads bring.

[Benjamin Frank]

I prefer to not make predictions, especially about an election that is over a year away, but I don't know where this idea comes from that New Hampshire is competitive at the federal level.  Joe Biden won it by 7%, nearly as much as Trump won Iowa and Ohio.

I'd be surprised if Senator Hassan didn't beat Sununu by 5%.

Perhaps because it was far closer in 2016:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_New_Hampshire

Fine, and Obama won Iowa and Ohio in 2012.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I know Scott Brown isn't Sununu, but Shaheen win when the Rs were in control of the House in 2014/ NH and Rs are slight favs to takeover the H.

NH isn't ME that have entrenched R Sens like Collins and Snowe, it's NH that elected Shaheen as Gov and Sen and it's been a long time since NH had an R Sen John SUNUNU in 2008

This race will hinge on whom D's nominate for Govs

Collins IS DONE IN 2026 DUE TO OBSTRUCTION TO VR AND FILIBUSTER THATS IN PART WHY LEPAGE IS LOOSING, DS ARENT LOSING ME 2 GOLDEN OR NH 1 PAPPAS

Collins wasn't on record until 2021 to Filibuster of VR, she won in 2020 due to votes on Cares Act

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Tossup is Tossup.
 Sununu having a +26 favorabilities edge on Hassan but only leading by 1 shows the limit of personal popularity in a time of intense negative partisanship.
As usual dems will try to nationalize the race and make Sununu into a Generic R.

He has already done a good job of that himself. The real takeaway is the 10-point shift in approval due to him signing a strict abortion ban into law.

Between that and the Bredesen Effect, this race is Lean D.

NH is less bipartisan then Maine. Maine fell for Susan Collin's fake moderate image, NH is less likely to fall for Sununu's fake moderate heroism at the federal level.

[TodayJunior]

probably ends up being a Democrat win by 3-5%.

[SnowLabrador]

probably ends up being a Democrat win by 3-5%.

Eh, it's going to be a red wave. The fact that Ron Kind is retiring speaks volumes.