Districts based off Trump '16 voters
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  Districts based off Trump '16 voters
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Author Topic: Districts based off Trump '16 voters  (Read 829 times)
bagelman
Junior Chimp
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« on: July 21, 2021, 11:24:12 PM »



When I've been bored, especially during this quarantine, I've been making maps based on states apportioned based on number of voters for a specific candidate. In other worlds, states where each CD has an equal number of votes for a particular candidate, ignoring their total population. The result is an alternate US where the population is differently distributed, more evenly at the cost of large cities and DC becoming a glorified federal campus. I've pretty much made all of them: DRA is strangely addicting for me.

This has generally been Obama '08, McCain '08, Hillary '16, or Trump '16 (this thread). This map series will show each state's congressional districts in this world, the population they have in our world, and how McCain and Obama did in them in our world. I should note that while I'm posting this in 2021, I made most of these last year or earlier.

In this world, Trump won the popular vote.

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bagelman
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: July 21, 2021, 11:24:47 PM »

Alabama



https://davesredistricting.org/join/6bd5c64e-72dd-4e6d-9cab-ddcecd9844ad

9 districts, stable 1D-8R split. The 8th is the black majority district. The 1st could become competitive, but this is a big if and not yet.

Arkansas




https://davesredistricting.org/join/6bd5c64e-72dd-4e6d-9cab-ddcecd9844ad

5R. The 3rd is competitive, having small numbers of liberal whites to augment the black vote unlike the 1st which is demographically the same.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: July 21, 2021, 11:30:59 PM »

Arizona



https://davesredistricting.org/join/b2cf2bf1-8726-4c4d-ba50-bfbca372a384

3D-6R. The Democratic districts are inner Tucson (1) and two Phoenix districts (6 and 9). The 6th is almost hispanic majority. The 7th is the one the Democrats will try to flip.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: July 22, 2021, 10:55:22 PM »

California

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b0f009e8-5857-482e-9f8c-336689fe001d

21D-10R

1-3 are the northern red districts. 1 is the reddest of NorCal which offsets the hippies on the coast. 2 and 3 are the Sierra Nevada region.

4 is Sacramento, 5 is northeastern bay area, 6 is western bay area, 7 central east bay, finally 8 is San Jose.

9 is greater Stockton, 10 unites Santa Cruz with much of the Inland Empire and is majority Hispanic, 11 is Fresno and just barely blue and hispanic. 

12 is the coast from Salina to Santa Barbara, 13 is greater Kern and fairly red despite hispanic majority, 14 is Oxnard and western LA suburbia.

15 stretches from Santa Clarita through Palmdale to Hesperia. Current red but not safe, it is the northern LA County district.

16 is western LA, 17 is northern LA, and 19 is southern LA/coasts. 17 and 19 are demographically very similar with similar populations of whites, hispanics, and asians. 18 is supermajority Hispanic and has very few whites, it is a vast district with an OTL population of nearly 4 million.

20 and 21 divide northwestern Orange, with 20 the more Asian influenced district and 21 Hispanic majority. 22 is the more old school region of the OC and remained very narrowly GOP despite many liberal areas. It is likely to finally fall in the midterms.

23 and 24 are both Hispanic majority districts east of LA proper, with the cities of Riverside and SB both in the latter. 25 is far northern OC and central west Riverside and is still red. 26 is a white majority tri county leftover district that is the strongest GOP hold in the state. 27 is more white majority and is surfer country.

28 is "east" SD County and is still GOP but competitive, while 29 is blue San Diego city. Finally, 30 and 31 are eastern border districts, 30 unites Modesto and Victorville through Yosemite and Death Valley, and lastly 31 is just barely Hispanic majority for southeast California.

Most white: 3
Least white: 18
Most Hispanic: 18
Least Hispanic: 3
Most black: 18
Least black: 22
Most Asian: 8
Least Asian: 1
Most Native: 1
Least Native: 22
Highest third party vote: 1
Lowest third party vote: 31
Highest population gain relative to rest of state: 3
Highest population loss relative to rest of state: 18
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: July 23, 2021, 12:25:25 AM »

Colorado

https://davesredistricting.org/join/4f8c2e0b-2ffd-4157-9c03-e10b79105c68



4D-4R. The main "urban" district is actually the 8th, not the 1st.

Florida



https://davesredistricting.org/join/c4172a59-f02f-4990-b105-f945767ca9bc

10D-22R.

In North Florida, Democrats will likely win back the 3rd in the midterms. In the south they will compete especially in 15, 18, and 23. District 31, strongly Cuban, was a real surprise in the wake of a GOP victory and won't flip back in the midterms. 32 is the other Hispanic majority district. 30 is the blackest district, 13 is the most Asian.

Georgia

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5aa0fd63-1f08-40f0-973d-6a88f0cc99cd



Currently 4D-10R. GA-2 was a pickup for the Democrats, while GA-12 is similar to FL-3 and will flip back in the midterms if Democrats can turn out their voters. 8 is black majority and 3 is black plurality. 1 is also minority majority and has high Hispanic and Asian influence.

Iowa



https://davesredistricting.org/join/d0a0a932-28a0-4419-a45a-da0f80e1599c

2D-4R. Democrats will likely even it out again at least by flipping back the 2nd.

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bagelman
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: July 25, 2021, 03:52:38 PM »

Idaho

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7a714a9a-0fbb-4665-a9ea-ed1f9aca73d9



3R

Illinois

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c3bda121-f21b-4626-88aa-1eaea59179ba



6D-9R. Very neatly divided between the northeast (1-6) and rest (7-15). The 1st has an OTL population of 3.3 million and is black plurality, it is the only minority majority district. 2, 3, and 5 are the more urban districts of northeast Illinois, not Chicago. Democrats will compete in 7, 8, 11, and 14 in that order.

Indiana



https://davesredistricting.org/join/79b5cb34-cb2c-4a55-874a-4a01880758d3

2D-9R and stable

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bagelman
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: August 08, 2021, 07:49:02 PM »

Kansas



https://davesredistricting.org/join/15c408d6-fc67-4463-a273-72de4080a398

1D-4R

Kentucky



https://davesredistricting.org/join/675805e6-59ac-4c53-875c-62940e9ca34d

1D-7R. A big wave could flip the 3rd.

Lousiana



https://davesredistricting.org/join/38f88192-c167-4301-8ebd-bf6833612e37

1D-7R

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bagelman
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: August 08, 2021, 08:11:12 PM »

Mass



https://davesredistricting.org/join/13773436-2b2e-45da-9e0c-0a5a1947bdbc

8D

Maryland



https://davesredistricting.org/join/e04457ec-d9b5-45d1-bfdb-66a5b13ba40d

3D-4R

Unlike in the McCain map series, MD-2 doesn't include DC, which is a federal campus with no EV or congressional representation. MD-3 is the obvious target for Dems during the midterms.

Maine



https://davesredistricting.org/join/fc459710-c575-445c-baa2-b8a04e452b70

1D-1R

Michigan



https://davesredistricting.org/join/5fba8b31-6b89-48f8-ac17-145ba2e29264

Currently 4D-12R. Democrats should gain at least 3 in the midterms.

Minnesota



https://davesredistricting.org/join/25604abc-beb2-4deb-b2cb-0b12db6f368f

3D-6R. Retaking the 9th will be the focus of local Democrats.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: August 08, 2021, 09:26:20 PM »

Missouri



https://davesredistricting.org/join/6ad792e9-9039-4cd9-b488-ab916cc97681

2D-9R

Very interesting map series! I look forward to seeing what you make for Missouri (I made my own version of the map and I want to see how it compares).

I'd love to see your version!

Montana

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bd36f179-defd-4c81-921d-03c0fb007b8f



2R

North Carolina

https://davesredistricting.org/join/da70e8c8-ab5b-47c3-a5be-38245d9d5514



6D-10R. Democrats managed to win the most competitive seats during this round of elections, such as the 11th, and the only semi-competitive sea really left is the 16th.

North Dakota



https://davesredistricting.org/join/c502ee1b-5c06-46c4-b8b4-d4db04589aa0

2R

Nebraska



https://davesredistricting.org/join/948a84db-9344-4b85-80ca-b23232170d19

3R. NE-1 will be challenged in midterms.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #9 on: August 10, 2021, 02:35:59 AM »

New Hampshire

https://davesredistricting.org/join/82fbebde-a1c3-4422-8fa4-b50eef99f992



1-1 even

New Jersey

https://davesredistricting.org/join/aabfb00e-abb4-4e00-bb39-8276db014636



Thanks to a very narrow win in the 11th, the GOP has 5D-6R majority in New Jersey. It's not likely that NJ-11 will survive the midterms however, and Democrats will also target the 7th.

New Mexico

https://davesredistricting.org/join/18455d43-306c-4905-b688-8ede4ce5b93f



2D

Nevada



https://davesredistricting.org/join/284d5abc-08bb-4d17-96ac-bb861d178c26

A strong GOP district, a weak GOP district, a strong DEM district, and a weak DEM district.

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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #10 on: August 19, 2021, 02:55:50 PM »

This has generally been Obama '08, McCain '08, Hillary '16, or Trump '16 (this thread). This map series will show each state's congressional districts in this world, the population they have in our world, and how McCain and Obama did in them in our world. I should note that while I'm posting this in 2021, I made most of these last year or earlier.

Very interesting. Could you give me the link to some other similar threads you made, if you made any others?
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #11 on: May 27, 2022, 02:43:07 PM »

New York:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1bb61065-ae49-4e49-abd1-27024e5c69ef





19 districts, currently 12R-7D. Democrats will likely flip NY-10 and NY-12 at least in the midterms.

This has generally been Obama '08, McCain '08, Hillary '16, or Trump '16 (this thread). This map series will show each state's congressional districts in this world, the population they have in our world, and how McCain and Obama did in them in our world. I should note that while I'm posting this in 2021, I made most of these last year or earlier.

Very interesting. Could you give me the link to some other similar threads you made, if you made any others?

Obama '08: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=384960.0

McCain '08: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=395409.0

Clinton '16: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=454854.0
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #12 on: May 27, 2022, 02:56:26 PM »

Ohio:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a02608bd-84a4-4b5f-b493-49059934b66d



20 districts, currently 15R-5D. OH-17 (Tim Ryan) and OH-18 were the big flips, the former being a huge shock to the Democratic party. Democrats managed to defend OH-14, and actually flipped OH-4. OH-9 will also be a likely Democratic pickup in the midterms, when they will fight to regain their two big northeastern losses. OH-19 (Marcia Fudge) is 38% black.

Oklahoma:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9ac055d0-72a7-446f-84a5-bc2e0d74c59f



Currently 7R sweep. OK-1 is the sole competitive seat.

Pennsylvania:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0d75b8ce-bdd6-4199-9233-de1e71e6e319



20 seats, currently 14R-6D. Democrats narrowly defended (or flipped) PA-5 and should have the upper hand in a blue midterm in PA-10. PA-1 is 43% black and 38% nh white.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #13 on: May 27, 2022, 03:14:44 PM »

South Carolina

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6fd40f91-0f0a-4c9a-b7c2-bc84fe2e42de



8 districts, 6R-2D

South Dakota

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3203597d-f8a2-41c0-8d86-fabd38dcc292



Tennessee

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3e6f9564-0db6-4181-85d1-788132e2c1c8



10 districts, 8R-2D

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bagelman
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #14 on: May 27, 2022, 04:23:54 PM »

Texas

https://davesredistricting.org/join/036b7d5a-b7c6-4c65-9df7-b3c3b859231e





(the western district is the 11th)







(the district in between Dallas and Temple is the 21st)

32 districts, 22R-10D. Democrats flipped TX-17 and TX-20 due to suburban shifts.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #15 on: May 27, 2022, 04:36:14 PM »

Utah

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d983411b-9df1-43c1-9dfd-8be6a34535a4



At first glance, it's a simple 3R-1D, and that's what it would be in our world. However, UT-1 and UT-3 are both vulnerable to McMuffinist challenges. They won't elect Democrats, but they could elect "conservatives". This won't happen in the more rural UT-4, and Democrats are pretty secure in UT-2.

Virginia

https://davesredistricting.org/join/eb1f00f7-91fa-45cf-8f10-a5c2aa0ab7cc



12 districts, currently 7R-5D. Democrats will target both VA-8 and VA-9.

Washington

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6ba84992-8ee1-4665-ab0c-87901cebab6f



8 districts, currently even at 4. Democrats were beaten in WA-3, WA-5, and were only barely able to defend WA-6. They will try and retake the west over the midterms.

Wisconsin

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8c6fbd57-5862-4f4e-aa62-5e4224dcc9f7



10 districts, currently a crushing 8R-2D after the GOP managed to flip WI-8, a result comparable to OH-17. Good thing for our Democrats that this is an alternative universe, and in our world the idea of a state like Wisconsin having only 2 Democratic leaning districts is absurd. Right?

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OctoCube
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« Reply #16 on: June 01, 2022, 11:32:30 AM »

This is a very cool idea
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