NJ: Quinnipiac University: Kean(R) maintains healthy advantage over Menendez(D)
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  NJ: Quinnipiac University: Kean(R) maintains healthy advantage over Menendez(D)
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Author Topic: NJ: Quinnipiac University: Kean(R) maintains healthy advantage over Menendez(D)  (Read 1219 times)
MR. KAYNE WEST
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« on: September 20, 2006, 05:41:11 AM »
« edited: September 21, 2006, 03:05:42 PM by Quincy »

New Poll: New Jersey Senator by Quinnipiac University on 2006-09-18

Summary: D: 45%, R: 48%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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adam
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« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2006, 08:17:39 AM »

How is being within the margin of error, whilst 6% of the community remains undecided a "healthy lead"?
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tweed
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« Reply #2 on: September 20, 2006, 08:23:05 AM »

NJ voters apparently are beginning to make up their mind.  Not good to see Kean within 2 of 50%.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2006, 08:23:31 AM »

Because he has lead in all the polls.
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poughies
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« Reply #4 on: September 20, 2006, 09:00:25 AM »

yea but what percentage can change their mind? A lot...... Though notice the very large difference between registered and likely voters.... Not odd, just interesting.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2006, 09:02:27 AM »

But when you are leading in all the polls it says something.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #6 on: September 20, 2006, 09:22:24 AM »

Quinnipiac as a rule does not push leaners hard.  That 6% is very surprising and can be very bad news for Senator Menendez.  Either the undecideds are breaking really early for New Jersey or the Big Q pushed them and they are not leaning towards breaking for him.

If the election were held today, Kean would likely win.  The bad news for him is that the election is still 6 weeks away and people can change their mind.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #7 on: September 20, 2006, 12:15:49 PM »

While hardly a 'healthy' lead it is showing a consistent trend.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #8 on: September 20, 2006, 12:28:18 PM »

This race is starting to move ever so slowly out of tossup

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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #9 on: September 20, 2006, 12:29:48 PM »

That's why I said advantage not lead there is a difference.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #10 on: September 20, 2006, 12:33:17 PM »

This race is starting to move ever so slowly out of tossup



I would say Kean might be 3-5% ahead at this stage, which is just hovering on the outside of a reasonable MoE. The race certainly isn't over, but I would say it's slanting Rep now.
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Conan
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« Reply #11 on: September 20, 2006, 02:34:10 PM »

This race is starting to move ever so slowly out of tossup


While the race is approaching the 50% mark I predict the next poll to be back in the low 40s for the both of them. Also, Menendez has approved his stance in the margin of error. It also showed Kean was a "Bush Republican" and Bush is unpopular. None of those ads are out yet. Tight race that really shouldnt be if we would have nominated Holt. I'll just call this race toss-up with a Kean advantage obviously. But I believe Menendez will be the ultimate winner.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #12 on: September 20, 2006, 02:40:02 PM »

This race is starting to move ever so slowly out of tossup


While the race is approaching the 50% mark I predict the next poll to be back in the low 40s for the both of them. Also, Menendez has approved his stance in the margin of error. It also showed Kean was a "Bush Republican" and Bush is unpopular. None of those ads are out yet. Tight race that really shouldnt be if we would have nominated Holt. I'll just call this race toss-up with a Kean advantage obviously. But I believe Menendez will be the ultimate winner.

And that, is a very respectable response Smiley
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Smash255
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« Reply #13 on: September 20, 2006, 05:56:14 PM »

Quinnipiac as a rule does not push leaners hard.  That 6% is very surprising and can be very bad news for Senator Menendez.  Either the undecideds are breaking really early for New Jersey or the Big Q pushed them and they are not leaning towards breaking for him.

If the election were held today, Kean would likely win.  The bad news for him is that the election is still 6 weeks away and people can change their mind.

Without leaners its 41-38% in favor of menendez so it looks like they may have pushed the leaners pretty hard to have that much of a disparity.
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poughies
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« Reply #14 on: September 20, 2006, 05:58:39 PM »

well that is likely voters plus leaners..... so that number has to do with a. likely voters only b. leaners.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #15 on: September 20, 2006, 07:02:15 PM »

Quinnipiac as a rule does not push leaners hard.  That 6% is very surprising and can be very bad news for Senator Menendez.  Either the undecideds are breaking really early for New Jersey or the Big Q pushed them and they are not leaning towards breaking for him.

If the election were held today, Kean would likely win.  The bad news for him is that the election is still 6 weeks away and people can change their mind.

Without leaners its 41-38% in favor of menendez so it looks like they may have pushed the leaners pretty hard to have that much of a disparity.

The script indicates they asked once.  That is not pushing leaners hard. 

FUll poll details.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #16 on: September 20, 2006, 07:33:21 PM »

If the election were held today, Kean would likely win.  The bad news for him is that the election is still 6 weeks away and people can change their mind.

^^^
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #17 on: September 20, 2006, 09:38:37 PM »

Still not much of a lead here for Kean. Tossup.
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