Getting KS-2018 vibes here
How so? Republicans lost there in a blue year because they nominated an unpopular extremist too conservative for the meidan voter. In OR, Democrats don't appear to be considering nominating an extremist/radical who'd cost nearly enough votes to lose the GE.
EDIT: Forgot to manually correct thread title and did so now.
That's fair, but I think in KS the GOP could've easily held on if they nominated someone not too closely associated with Brownback, maybe someone a tad more moderate. They instead picked Kobach, his second-in-command. Because 2018 was blue and the entire Brownback/Kobach administration was unpopular, Kobach (tied closely to Brownback) lost by a decent margin (with a spoiler).
Here we have some of those ingredients but not all of them. Yes, Kate Brown is unpopular, but I don't think Speaker of the House Kotek is as closely tied to her as Kobach was to Brownback (he was literally in the Brownback administration).
And Greg Orman isn't Betsy Johnson. Johnson is drawing votes from both sides (again - ORGOP's 2018 nominee enodrsed her); Orman actually helped
Kobach and
hurt Kelly by drawing some anti-Kobach and centre-left votes. Betsy Johnson is a gadfly who will probably win a decent chunk of the vote but it'll be taken about evenly from Democrats and Republicans and kill any spoiler effect she may have.
