This is probably one of the most interesting gubernatorial races this cycle. Alaska has potential, but Oregon for sure could be interesting. I could see Johnson winning a few counties.
Any ones in particular?
I would imagine she should do quite well in her home turf of Columbia County for one.
Astoria is just too Democratic for her to pull off Clatsop County, but would think she might do well outside of the city proper.
Tillamook County could be interesting for her.
East of the Cascades most counties are just too heavily Republican, with the obvious exceptions of Hood River and Deschutes counties.
She might do fairly well in Wasco County in this three person race, since although it has a slight PUB lean has shown to be somewhat swingy with a decent ancestral DEM base who sometimes vote PUB.
Other possibilities?
Columbia County will likely be won by Johnson in most scenarios. The rest are completely dependent on her overall vote share. If she gets 25%, then I think she would carry Columbia, Clatsop, and Tillamook. The rest of the state bar Multnomah she would probably get around her statewide percentage. College kids like third parties. She'll do well in the East but the county breakdowns might be 50 Drazen-30 Johnson-20 Kotek.
If she gets 35% she would likely win most counties west of the Cascades.
Jesse Ventura in 1998 won a plurality of counties, including all of the population centers except Duluth. If she got 35% then she's winning Marion, Clackamas, Deschutes. Maybe not Washington or Multnomah, but she wouldn't be that far off.
