Oregon Governor Megathread

[NOVA Green]

Bill Sizemore has now entered the race for an OR-PUB-GOV candidate.

Willamette Week who first broke the Pulliam swinger story, including links to the PDX Swingers page has just published this.

For those of you who don't know, Willamette Week is a decades long running Portland Indie free weekly newspaper with tons of ads, personals, and alternative content and like many Indie rags has effectively become a contender with more established and mainstream media outlets over the years.

Bill Sizemore is.... well a bit of a well known character in Oregon from way back. Kinda like a local version of Grover Norquist, except his personal financial history is a bit shadier....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Sizemore

So here's the link to the WW story which should be free with no paywall...

Put that in your pipe and reflect, but definitely is a significant development on the PUB PRIM side of the house....

https://www.wweek.com/news/2022/02/09/mayor-stan-pulliams-bid-for-the-hearts-and-minds-of-trump-voters-has-hit-a-few-snags/

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Hot take- Johnson wins the General

[President Johnson]

Hot take- Johnson wins the General

I'll announce my campaign next week. Stay tuned!

[Schiff for Senate]

Hot take- Johnson wins the General

Hot take: She doesn't break 15%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There's no poll

[NOVA Green]

Hot take- Johnson wins the General

Hot take: She doesn't break 15%

Entirely plausible since she is running as an Indie.

Reality is that in Oregon now as of Feb 12 2022 the vast majority of both Democratic and Republican Primary voters in a closed-primary state have no idea of who is running in their respective primaries, even though it is basically barely over three Months from election day.

In order for Johnson to be successful as an Indie she will need to capture a significant % of Registered Dems, Pubs, and Non-Affiliated Voters (Plurality of RVs in OR).

The obvious question is what % of each segment she can capture and in what regions in OR, and ultimately what political themes she accentuates to differentiate her from both whomever the REG DEMS & PUBS choose to select as their flag bearer for November.

It's a very difficult needle to thread but obviously a winning Betsy coalition would need to involve at minimum a virtual tie in the PDX 'Burbs of ClackCo and WashCo, combined with reduced DEM % in MultCo (Thinking parts of West PDX and East County places like Gresham might be good fishing grounds).

Not quite sure how she could do it without winning Marion County as well as eating into Upper Middle-Class precincts in places like Corvallis, Eugene, & Medford.

At this point really we don't know s**t about Betsy's chances as an Indie w/o knowing the respective candidates and policy differentiation / brands between the flag bearers of the top two political parties within Oregon.

[NOVA Green]

Low hanging fruit, but it's official, Nick Kristof will not be running for OR-GOV in 2022

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2022/02/nick-kristof-wont-fight-oregon-supreme-court-decision-that-keeps-him-off-ballot-in-governors-race.html

[NOVA Green]

With Kristoff out political handicappers are giving Kotek the edge to win the DEM primary and downgrading Johnson's GE chances.


https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2022/02/nick-kristof-is-out-of-the-oregon-governors-race-but-2022-still-promises-to-be-a-wild-year.html

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Shes gonna get 15 PERCENT Betsy Johnson

[NOVA Green]

OR-GOV Primary Polls...

Got my first OR-GOV pamphlet in the mail from Read, nothing yet from Kotek and haven't seen any commercials for either on television in the Mid Valley area.

In the Democratic primary, former House Speaker Tina Kotek led state Treasurer Tobias Read 25% to 20%, in the survey conducted by FM3 Research and paid for by Read’s campaign.

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2022/04/poll-democratic-gubernatorial-candidates-tina-kotek-and-tobias-read-in-a-tight-race-most-likely-voters-undecided.html

Republican voters have more candidates with name recognition and significant fundraising to choose from, and perhaps for that reason likely GOP primary voters were more split on which candidates they expected to vote for in the May 17 vote-by-mail primary. The candidate with the highest level of support was oncologist and 2016 Republican gubernatorial nominee Bud Pierce with 11%, followed by former House Republican leader Christine Drazan with 8%, according to the Nelson Research survey paid for by lobbying firm Public Affairs Counsel.

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2022/04/oregon-republican-primary-has-no-clear-frontrunner-no-candidate-with-more-than-11-support-poll.html

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2022/04/oregons-next-governor-week-in-review.html-3

[PSOL]

I’ll be honest, I’m actually certain the only reason that Johnson is in the race is to act as a spoiler. Nike clearly wants something out of the money they are pouring into this race, and I doubt they want the Democrats to do well.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I’ll be honest, I’m actually certain the only reason that Johnson is in the race is to act as a spoiler. Nike clearly wants something out of the money they are pouring into this race, and I doubt they want the Democrats to do well.

Did you see the poll I posted no Users ignored it Betsy Johnson and D's are leading the Rs

Johnson leads 30/24/17
https://www.wweek.com/news/state/2022/02/01/an-independent-poll-offers-insight-into-betsy-johnsons-bid-for-oregon-governor/

[sg0508]

There's no reason to think the GOP could win this seat this year if they haven't in the past. It's one of those "until you win, you expect to keep losing" deals.

And, in that environment, where practically everything is "legal" in that state, good luck electing a conservative.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OR is a wildfire state like AZ, we had a real bad Wildfire season in 2020 that's why Trump did so poorly out here and NV is too, and Rs are for Fossil Fuels and Oil Drilling and greenhouse gasses destroys the Environment, they warned Reagan when he started Fracking but Rs didn't listen

[NOVA Green]

OR is a wildfire state like AZ, we had a real bad Wildfire season in 2020 that's why Trump did so poorly out here and NV is too, and Rs are for Fossil Fuels and Oil Drilling and greenhouse gasses destroys the Environment, they warned Reagan when he started Fracking but Rs didn't listen

Not quite sure what you are saying when it comes to the ref to "fracking" and Reagan (Personally was a Frack Reagan Oregonian as a young kid).

Forest Fire politics in general in general work against the PUBs in the "breadbasket" of OR voters (Metro-PDX), but also create a major counter-reaction in major parts of "Downstate" in current and former resource dependent communities worries about the costs of increased "regs" as a result of climate change activities increasingly costing $$$ w/o necessary grants to upgrade small diesel truck "Gypo" logging outfits.

Also, deep suspicion in many parts of downstate OR since "Urban Environmentalists" got scapegoated for decline of OR Mill jobs in the late '80s / '90s, etc.

Tech jobs were supposed to replace... Eco-Tourism was supposed to replace.

Never happened...

Now we dealing with aging Crystal Meth Addicts, Millennial opiate pill-poppers, plus people jacking up on harder s**t.

Nowhere to live, tent cities have been exploding throughout OR with fires, COVID, and basically many parts of Oregon where it is virtually impossible to live as a single person on minimum wage income.

[OSR stands with Israel]

After the latest Koin Debate I have decided to vote for Bob Tiernan in the primary. My ranking would be Tiernan>Pierce> Drazen> Stan

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tina Kotek or Betsy Johnson are gonna win this race

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

As an Oregonian for much of my young and adult life; if I were back home then Kotek would likely have my vote, and I've urged my friends and family still there to support her. In addition to having the support of most of the Labor organizations and Warren I've gotta admire her focus on Housing availability & access to Mental Health services which are two of my most important issues.

And I'm not ashamed to say I will always have the urge to see more LGBTQ+ representation in the highest offices our our land to further break down barriers and stigma.

I have confidence Oregon will continue to do the right thing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The only way this hurts D's if he runs against Kaine but we don't even know whom is running in 2025

[Dr. MB]

I just voted today.

Ron Wyden for senate, John Selker for congress, Ifeanyichukwu Diru for governor, Chris Henry for labor commissioner. All the rest were unopposed or minor local races.

For governor I really don’t have a strong opinion but I’m not impressed at all by either Kotek or Read and Diru’s got a cool background and seems decent enough so I figured I’d give him my vote.

[Dr. MB]

Shes gonna get 15 PERCENT Betsy Johnson

Betsy Johnson is gonna win this race

Do you think she's gonna win with 15 percent of the vote?

[RI]

Kurt Schrader may endorse Johnson:

https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1536427381375873024

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Kurt Schrader may endorse Johnson:

https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1536427381375873024

He should just switch parties and be honest about it.  Everyone knows he is a Republican

[ProgressiveModerate]

Getting KS-2018 vibes here

How so? Republicans lost there in a blue year because they nominated an unpopular extremist too conservative for the meidan voter. In OR, Democrats don't appear to be considering nominating an extremist/radical who'd cost nearly enough votes to lose the GE.


EDIT: Forgot to manually correct thread title and did so now.

I'm talking about a governor election in a likely/safe state in a wave year where the party the national environment doesn't prefer has a term-limited extremely unpopular governor, and there is a spoiler independent candidate taking votes from the same party.

That's fair, but I think in KS the GOP could've easily held on if they nominated someone not too closely associated with Brownback, maybe someone a tad more moderate. They instead picked Kobach, his second-in-command. Because 2018 was blue and the entire Brownback/Kobach administration was unpopular, Kobach (tied closely to Brownback) lost by a decent margin (with a spoiler).

Here we have some of those ingredients but not all of them. Yes, Kate Brown is unpopular, but I don't think Speaker of the House Kotek is as closely tied to her as Kobach was to Brownback (he was literally in the Brownback administration).

And Greg Orman isn't Betsy Johnson. Johnson is drawing votes from both sides (again - ORGOP's 2018 nominee enodrsed her); Orman actually helped Kobach and hurt Kelly by drawing some anti-Kobach and centre-left votes. Betsy Johnson is a gadfly who will probably win a decent chunk of the vote but it'll be taken about evenly from Democrats and Republicans and kill any spoiler effect she may have.

I don't think the issue is Kotek is tied to Brown, but that she is relatively progressive and may flunk outside of hyper-liberal Portland and Eugene.

[Politician]

Kurt Schrader may endorse Johnson:

https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1536427381375873024

He should just switch parties and be honest about it.  Everyone knows he is a Republican

I would be willing to take Schrader, Cuellar and Golden, and give you guys Kinzinger and Cheney. Deal?