Oregon Governor Megathread

[NOVA Green]

Okay... still working on "cracking" a few more of the bigger counties split between CD's, especially within context of OR redistricting which rearranged a ton of precinct lines.

Still, here are the numbers for CD-01:

Thought this might be an interesting one, especially since there were chunks of the district which used to be in Betsy Johnson's old stomping grounds.

Plus Phil Knight was one of the earliest and biggest boosters, where many of the employees and contractors who work at the Nike facility actually live and are voters in CD-01.

I will not excessively pontificate yet on findings regarding the 2022 OR-GOV election and the impact of Betsy Johnson, but it does appear that in most places in Oregon, there were significantly more folks who voted DEM for other elections, but chose Betsy as their candidate for GOV.

Meanwhile, we don't necessarily see a couple % increase for Drazen versus US-SEN or US-REP in many places, but still strongly suspect without Johnson in the race many voters would have put the clothespin to their nose and voted Kotek over Drazen.

Should also be remembered that in "Silicon Forest", DEM pols have long been considered strong supporters of the Tech sector, including OR-DEM-GOVs, so regardless of WashCo voters opinions of "what is going on in Portland", which both Betsy and Drazen tried to use to peel away PDX suburban voters, doesn't appear to have played as well as their "consultants" thought it might have.

OR-CD-01-22

DEM-   210,682  (67.9%)       +36.0% D
PUB-     99,042   (31.9%)
TOT-    310,243

OR-SEN-22

DEM-   209,714  (66.4%)       +36.5% D
PUB-     94,413  (29.9%)
TOT-    315,650

OR-GOV-22

DEM-                183,723  (57.6%)       +26.2% D
PUB-                100,184   (31.4%)
IND (Betsy)-      33,731   (10.6%)
TOT-                 319,127

[NOVA Green]

Interesting one, since after all got a bit Gerrymandered as a PUB "Vote Sink" for the new CD-02, but still we can also observe US-SEN and OR-GOV results...

Key number to watch are the US-SEN numbers, despite Bend having got shifted into CD-05 with redistricting, and significantly lower REG DEM TO vs REG PUB TO compared and contrasted with the '20 GE and the '18 Midterm GE.

Jackson County numbers were bad for DEM's in '22 but Wyden only lost by ~ 5k, while meanwhile Drazen wins by ~ (14-15k) with Johnson hitting ~ 7k votes.

Needless to say, take a look at Josephine County, which doesn't have the student population like Jackson.

Wyden did something like 4k votes ahead of Kotek, while meanwhile Drazen did roughly 2.5k votes ahead of the Q OR-SEN pub candidate.

Regardless, this pattern replicates itself in virtually every county in the district from the "Grain Belt" of the North to the "Cow Country" of the Southeast.


OR-CD-02-22

DEM-    99,882   (32,4%)       +35.1% R
PUB-    208,369  (67.5%)
TOT-     308,676

OR-SEN-22

DEM-   120,299 (37.5%)       +22.4% R
PUB-    192,094 (59.9%)
TOT-    320,849

OR-GOV-22

DEM-                 89,608   (27.6%)       +35.7% R
PUB-                 205,335  (63.3%)
IND (Betsy)-      25,435   (7.8%)
TOT-                 324,370

[NOVA Green]

Interesting! So I'm gonna assume Kotek definitely lost OR-05 and OR-06 then, if she was only +2 in OR-04

Just finished crunching the numbers for all OR-CD's now that I have finally "cracked ClackCo numbers", following a little of work transferring Marion County numbers into an Excel based format...

Looking at cleaning up the numbers into more of an Excel Table style format, and migrating the data over to another thread...

Here you go Altas Nation...

OR-CD-03- 2022

DEM-    212,919   (70.2%)       +43.9% D
PUB-      79,766   (26.3%)
TOT-     303,334

OR-SEN-22

DEM-   220,775 (70.8%)       +45.4% D
PUB-     79,293  (25.4%)
TOT-    311,835

OR-GOV-22
DEM-                 201,727 (64.1%)       +36.2% D
PUB-                   87,644 (27.9%)
IND (Betsy)-        23,358  (7.4%)
TOT-                  314,678

OR-CD-05- 2022

DEM-    171,514   (48.8%)       +2.1% R
PUB-     178,813   (50.9%)
TOT-     351,233

OR-SEN-22

DEM-    177,252 (52.3%)       +7.7% D
PUB-     151,103 (44.6%)
TOT-     338,607

OR-GOV-22

DEM-                 146,649  (42.7%)       +4.7% R
PUB-                  162,810  (47.4%)
IND (Betsy)-        20,923   (6.1%)
TOT-                   343,353

Time to hit OR CD-06 Compare and Contrast numbers from 2022...

OR-CD-06- 2022

DEM-    147,156  (50.0%)       +2.7% D
PUB-     139,146  (47.3%)
TOT-     294,377

OR-SEN-22

DEM-    160,452 (53.2%)       +9.7% D
PUB-     131,093 (43.5%)
TOT-     301,401

OR-GOV-22

DEM-                 136,232  (44.3%)       +1.8% R
PUB-                  141,689  (46.1%)
IND (Betsy)-        27,084   (8.8%)
TOT-                   307,598

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Interesting (At least to me) that Drazen got less support than the House GOP candidates in OR-5 and OR-6, yet did better than the OR-3 candidate

[NOVA Green]

Interesting (At least to me) that Drazen got less support than the House GOP candidates in OR-5 and OR-6, yet did better than the OR-3 candidate

Good observation...

So I did go in this morning to take a look at the Clackamas County numbers, which is split into three different Congressional Districts and believe some of the differential you observed can perhaps be somewhat explained by the presence of (11) split precincts where part of the voters are in CD-03 and others in CD-05.

Since it was easier to calculate by doing the subtotals of the CD's with fewer precincts (CD-03 and CD-06) and then subtracting from the County totals to get the CD-05 numbers for OR-GOV and OR-SEN these numbers were inadvertently lumped into the CD-03 numbers.

Naturally this creates a problem in getting a fully accurate count by CD...

I could try to go in and "weigh" by % of ballots cast in each of these precincts for the Congressional races, however that has its own issues since overall turnout was likely lower in the safe CD-03 versus the competitive CD-05.

I could just split out the "problem precincts" into their own bucket with a separate tabulation for each race.

Now regarding CD-06, what I suspect,  without taking a deeper dive yet into the numbers, is that it is most likely statistical noise with an increase 13k votes for the GOV race over the CD race, combined with Johnson probably drawing some voters from Erickson (CD-06-PUB).

Should also be noted that Salinas significantly outperformed Kotek within the Marion County portion of the district and Drazen only captured 49.4% within Marion County with Erickson nabbing 50.8%.

[NOVA Green]

For anybody with an Oregonlive subscription you should be able to pull this up for free...

If not and interested, maybe do a trial sub to view the article???

Basically, the actual graphic shows OR-GOV precinct results from everywhere within Metro-PDX.

Here are a few quotes from the text side of the article:

Kotek’s crowning electoral achievements in the November election came in the Kerns and King neighborhoods on Portland’s inner east side, where she crushed Drazan by 90% to 5%. That’s a bigger margin than even Kotek’s home turf of Kenton, where she secured about 84% of the vote after serving 15 years as a state representative or House speaker.

Still, there were many neighborhoods where Drazan narrowly edged or even trounced the Democrat, including in her home base of Clackamas County, which she won.

In precinct 101 in Clackamas’s Happy Valley neighborhood, for instance, Drazan’s margin of victory was 48% to 44%. In precinct 424 in the Sherwood Tualatin area of Washington County, Drazan bested Kotek 47% to 43%.

There were neighborhoods in Multnomah County, too, where Drazan prevailed, primarily some of the precincts west of Gresham.

https://www.oregonlive.com/data/2023/01/tina-kotek-is-oregons-new-governor-see-which-candidate-your-neighbors-wanted-in-office.html

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

For anybody with an Oregonlive subscription you should be able to pull this up for free...

If not and interested, maybe do a trial sub to view the article???

Basically, the actual graphic shows OR-GOV precinct results from everywhere within Metro-PDX.

Here are a few quotes from the text side of the article:

Kotek’s crowning electoral achievements in the November election came in the Kerns and King neighborhoods on Portland’s inner east side, where she crushed Drazan by 90% to 5%. That’s a bigger margin than even Kotek’s home turf of Kenton, where she secured about 84% of the vote after serving 15 years as a state representative or House speaker.

Still, there were many neighborhoods where Drazan narrowly edged or even trounced the Democrat, including in her home base of Clackamas County, which she won.

In precinct 101 in Clackamas’s Happy Valley neighborhood, for instance, Drazan’s margin of victory was 48% to 44%. In precinct 424 in the Sherwood Tualatin area of Washington County, Drazan bested Kotek 47% to 43%.

There were neighborhoods in Multnomah County, too, where Drazan prevailed, primarily some of the precincts west of Gresham.

https://www.oregonlive.com/data/2023/01/tina-kotek-is-oregons-new-governor-see-which-candidate-your-neighbors-wanted-in-office.html

You might only need to sign up for an account to see the visualization, without subscribing. edit: I guess the 7 day trial automatically kicked in

Not surprised some of the East Portland (within PDX proper) precincts narrowly went for Drazan, although I’m not sure if they include the relatively Trumpy ones from 2020.

A lot of residential Hillsboro west of the Hillsboro airport was close to evenly split (which seems to reflect baseline partisanship), and much of residential Gresham east of downtown Gresham favored Drazan (not that surprising but worth pointing out).