Oregon Governor Megathread

[wbrocks67]

The final EV in OR in 2020 was about D+12, so if Dems can keep it close where they are now, they should be fine.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I think the democrats have done a good job nationalising the race by bringing in Biden, Betsy is fading and I think Oregons democratic base will reassert itself unless there's another riot in portland or something that aids the Drazan's argument regarding the democrat overreach.

I do wonder why republicans haven't been able to do a similar stratagey in Oklahoma.

[NOVA Green]

Still very early, but we are starting to see some ballots being returned & received in OR by local county election agencies.

10/26/22:

DEM: 71,067 Returned       
DEM: 1,020,961 Registered
DEM TO %: 6.96% TO to date

PUB: 52,702 Returned 
PUB: 736,671 Registered
PUB TO %: 7.15% TO to date

OTHERS: 37,525 Returned
OTHERS: 1,236,032 Registered
OTHERS TO %: 3.04% TO to date

10/27/22 UPDATE:

DEM: 97,675 Returned     (+26,608 DVs)
DEM: 1,020,961 Registered
DEM TO %: 9.57% TO to date (+2.6%)

PUB: 77,559 Returned   (+24,857 RVs)
PUB: 736,671 Registered
PUB TO %: 10.5% TO to date  (+3.3%)

OTHERS: 55,171 Returned    (+17,646)
OTHERS: 1,236,032 Registered
OTHERS TO %: 4.46% TO to date

[NOVA Green]

Ok... here is the Oregon Friday returned ballot dump...

I'll include my previous two days worth of returns for context...

Not sure if I'll go as crazy on the charts and maps as the past couple elections in Oregon with daily returns, but still plan on providing updates through Election Day...

10/28/22 bolded at bottom of post...

10/26/22:

DEM: 71,067 Returned       
DEM: 1,020,961 Registered
DEM TO %: 6.96% TO to date

PUB: 52,702 Returned
PUB: 736,671 Registered
PUB TO %: 7.15% TO to date

OTHERS: 37,525 Returned
OTHERS: 1,236,032 Registered
OTHERS TO %: 3.04% TO to date

10/27/22 UPDATE:

DEM: 97,675 Returned     (+26,608 DVs)
DEM: 1,020,961 Registered
DEM TO %: 9.57% TO to date (+2.6%)

PUB: 77,559 Returned   (+24,857 RVs)
PUB: 736,671 Registered
PUB TO %: 10.5% TO to date  (+3.3%)

OTHERS: 55,171 Returned    (+17,646)
OTHERS: 1,236,032 Registered
OTHERS TO %: 4.46% TO to date

10/28/22 UPDATE:

DEM: 144,995 Returned     (+47,320 DVs)
DEM: 1,020,961 Registered
DEM TO %: 14.2% TO to date (+4.6%)

PUB: 113,803 Returned   (+36,244 RVs)
PUB: 736,671 Registered
PUB TO %: 15.5% TO to date  (+5.0%)

OTHERS: 110,718 Returned    (+55,547 RVs)
OTHERS: 1,236,032 Registered
OTHERS TO %: 9.0% TO to date  (+4.5%)

I might take a closer look here this evening with a few more breakdowns...

[wbrocks67]

You wonder if this is where it falls apart for Johnson - the final two weeks of the race has Kotek spending $3.1M, Drazan $1M, and Johnson only $266K.

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1585719832128913408

[NOVA Green]

Okay--- so I took the liberty of spending a little bit of time to run the Oregon Early Vote thus far, as of local election offices updates from 11:00 AM on 10/28/22.

Here is a map I generated of the current vote to date by county by party registration, which basically has a bit of a color coding legend:



Not quite sure how to do the best comparison, but overall OR TO by RV by Party roughly the same number of days out was more like this in 2020:



Here is a graph which I put together for the OR-GE in 2018 at a point in the race:



So... it is pretty clear the Oregon early voting / Vote by Mail (VbM) habits have shifting dramatically between '18 and '22.

In 2018 Republicans had the massive initial surge of early voting...

In 2020 Democrats surged hard with Early Voting.

In 2022 Data is a bit more mixed....

[NOVA Green]

A few additional observations:

1.) As is typically the case counties with higher % of Seniors tend to have much higher rates of EV TO.

For example places such as Curry, Wallowa, and Wheeler County jump at at the 80+ yrs graph

70+ something similar, but suddenly numbers start to surge especially along the Oregon Coast, Southern Oregon, as well as many parts of Central and Eastern Oregon.

60-70 year old numbers reinforce this pattern even further.

NOTE: This is but a brief snap-point in time, but it might provide a few clues regarding voter enthusiam, especially among Senior voters.

2.) We have a few counties such as Linn, Polk, and Yamhil, where election results received by county election officials are WAY lower than most other counties.

I suspect this is likely county level resourcing issues, or possibly ballot arrival timelines, as opposed to any major reason why voters are holding off on voting, since the % gap would be outside of any typical standard deviation for election returns.

3.) DEM EV vs PUB EV % Numbers are matching or exceeding PUB % numbers in most of the populated parts of Oregon, including Republican Counties in Southern Oregon.

4.) Metro PDX voters from the DEM Statewide "breadbaskets" of Multnomah and Washington County are currently lagging in places where voters not registered or DEM or PUB tend to be more likely to vote DEM vs PUB.

I would not be surprised to see this situation correct itself a bit more as we get closer to election day.

5.) "Ancestral DEMs"...

There are still a significant % of REG DEMs in places such as Tillamook, Wasco, and Columbia Counties, not to mention even Linn County Oregon, which might frequently vote PUB for certain elections

Naturally, this will distort the numbers, especially if Betsy is hoovering up a chunk of those voters.

6.) Oregon Automatic Voter Registration (AVR) and naturally the pioneer of an all Vote-by-mail (VbM) means that we naturally have a lot more registered voters than we actually do people likely to vote, simply because any transaction with the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV), means you get registered to vote unless you opt out.

Younger voters are more likely to move, and quite possible less likely to vote in this election according to various national polling numbers, so we'll see where that goes.

There was a reason Bernie showed up in Eugene, Oregon just the other day for example...

Anyways... thoughts Atlas Hive??

[NOVA Green]

Here is the daily update of returned ballots in Oregon by Party:

I'll start with the 10/28/22 numbers for context:

Had to Correct my 10/28/22 "OTHERS" numbers since there was a minor data crunching error with overstated actual Returned Ballots...

10/28/22 UPDATE:

DEM: 144,995 Returned     (+47,320 DVs)
DEM: 1,020,961 Registered
DEM TO %: 14.2% TO to date (+4.6%)

PUB: 113,803 Returned   (+36,244 RVs)
PUB: 736,671 Registered
PUB TO %: 15.5% TO to date  (+5.0%)

OTHERS:  82,325 Returned    (+27,154 RVs)
OTHERS: 1,236,032 Registered
OTHERS TO %: 6.7% TO to date  (+4.5%)

10/31/22 UPDATE:

DEM: 172,054 Returned     (+27,059 DVs)
DEM: 1,020,961 Registered
DEM TO %: 16.9% TOTAL TO to date (+2.7%)

PUB: 141,674 Returned   (+27,871 RVs)
PUB: 736,671 Registered
PUB TO %: 19.2% TO to date  (+3.7%)

OTHERS: 100,576 Returned    (+18,251 RVs)
OTHERS: 1,236,032 Registered
OTHERS TO %: 9.0% TO to date  (+2.3%)

Will follow up shortly with further details...

[NOVA Green]

So here is a brief follow-up:

1.) PUBs return more raw votes than DEMs for the first day of the OR-2022-GE election cycle.

2.) PUB's now open up a significant EV % of RV TO lead over OR DEMs.

3.) In theory this is great for PUBs, indicating perhaps a significant enthusiasm gap between Registered PUBs > DEMs.

4.) Still, despite the whole "fake election scene", it appears that Oregon Pubs have no problem voting early, while OR-DEM To lags.

5.) Statewide OR TO % are heavily impacted by significantly lower Registered DEM TO compared to '18 and '20 , during this same time of the election cycle.

6.) PUBs still continue to perform exceptionally well even with the Democratic breadbaskets of Multnomah and Washington County, at least as far as early turnout numbers.

7.) Good chance PUBs have been "banking EVs faster than DEMs", since OR elections were a bit of a sleeper and now we got Millions of dollars floating in for OR-PUB races, where in theory OR-GOV, HD-04, HD-05, HD-06, could be up for grabs, not to mention so many other State Legislative District ratings.

8.)  As I have previously mentioned, we need to be extremely careful when it comes to total DEM TO %, especially in many "Ancestral DEM" parts of Oregon, from Wasco, Columbia, Tillamook, Coos, and even Linn County.

9.) AVR has thrown yet another monkey-wrench in the mix, since we have tons of voters who traditionally are low propensity voters, who now get ballots and voter pamphlets into the mailbox, at the same time we are seeing the highest amount of political campaign ads on local television that I can remember for the longest time.

10.) Still early and plan on continuing to share daily updates...

[NOVA Green]

November 1st Daily Returns have been posted:

Will lead with Monday's posted numbers for comparison:

10/31/22 UPDATE:

DEM: 172,054 Returned     (+27,059 DVs)
DEM: 1,020,961 Registered
DEM TO %: 16.9% TOTAL TO to date (+2.7%)

PUB: 141,674 Returned   (+27,871 RVs)
PUB: 736,671 Registered
PUB TO %: 19.2% TO to date  (+3.7%)

OTHERS: 100,576 Returned    (+18,251 RVs)
OTHERS: 1,236,032 Registered
OTHERS TO %: 9.0% TO to date  (+2.3%)

11/1/22 UPDATE:

DEM: 240,982 Returned     (+68,928 DVs)
DEM: 1,020,961 Registered
DEM TO %: 23.6% TOTAL TO to date (+6.7%)

PUB: 189,061 Returned   (+47,387 RVs)
PUB: 736,671 Registered
PUB TO %: 25.7% TO to date  (+6.5%)

OTHERS: 140,573 Returned    (+39,997 RVs)
OTHERS: 1,236,032 Registered
OTHERS TO %: 11.4% TO to date  (+2.4%)

General notes and likely a little more to follow later this evening.

1.) DEMs are starting to eat into what was an initial large turnout gap with PUBs who started open up significant leads on 10/27, 10/28, and 10/31 ballot returns.

2.) Because of the significant voter registration gap between Democrats and Republicans in Oregon, even minor Democratic improvements on total turnout add to a significant DEM returned ballot edge for DEMs.

Of the 157k ballots posted on 11/1/22, DEMs netted an additional 20k vote ballot lead over PUBs in returned ballots. Currently just today's dump accounts for 40% of the 50k DEM RV returned ballot lead.

3.) Since OR is 100% VBM, larger numbers of ballots will typically show up on the Tuesday following the weekend, since the State typically posts their updates in the morning before mail has been received.

4.) NAVs and registered 3rd Party vote numbers appear to be picking up slightly and are an obvious wild card in what is now an Automatic Voter Registration State.

Typically OR election returns dip in midterm elections, and generally the dips are strongest among NAVs.

5.) Natural caveat not all NAVs are created equal and in fact many tend to have strong political leanings towards one or other of the two major parties.

[NOVA Green]

Here is a map which I generated of part turnout to date by RV Party:

Naturally not all counties in Oregon are created equal in terms of population, etc...



1.) It *IS* interesting that DEMS are still holding total RV TO leads over pubs on the Oregon Coast

2.) IT *IS* interesting that DEMs are holding a narrow TO lead in Southern Oregon.

3.) DEM and OTHER TO % numbers around Metro PDX could in theory create some issues for DEMs in Statewide races, and not to mention in CD-06.

4.) CD-05 is still looking tight, but ultimately Bend and the ClackCo 'burbs and Exurbs of PDX will decided the vote with rurals mostly baked in at this point.

5.) Still no idea what exactly this all means for Betsy, Tina, and Christine, but reality is that if Drazen does not perform especially well in the outer PDX burbs, toss in some nice upscale heavily DEM places within the city itself, etc... still scratching my head about how all this math is supposed to work out?

[NOVA Green]

Oregon Ballot updates from the 11/2/22 8:07 AM daily update...

PUBs regain some ground from DEM improvements yesterday both in terms of % of Total Ballots returned to date, as well as even making some gains in terms of net gain in PUB ballot returns compared to 11/1/22.

Yesterday's numbers for context:

11/1/22 UPDATE:

DEM: 240,982 Returned     (+68,928 DVs)
DEM: 1,020,961 Registered
DEM TO %: 23.6% TOTAL TO to date (+6.7%)

PUB: 189,061 Returned   (+47,387 RVs)
PUB: 736,671 Registered
PUB TO %: 25.7% TO to date  (+6.5%)

OTHERS: 140,573 Returned    (+39,997 RVs)
OTHERS: 1,236,032 Registered
OTHERS TO %: 11.4% TO to date  (+2.4%)

11/2/22 UPDATE:

DEM: 240,982 Returned     (+20,898 DVs Day-On-Day)
DEM: 1,020,961 Registered
DEM TO %: 25.7% TOTAL TO to date (+2.1% Day-On-Day)

PUB: 189,061 Returned   (+23,855 RVs Day-On-Day)
PUB: 736,671 Registered
PUB TO %: 28.9% TO to date  (+3.2% Day-On-Day)

OTHERS: 156,098 Returned    (+15,525 RVs Day-On-Day)      156,098
OTHERS: 1,236,032 Registered
OTHERS TO %: 12.6% TO to date  (+1.2% Day-On-Day)

Might take a closer look at a few select counties in a bit...

[NOVA Green]

Naturally one of the biggest questions currently in my mind in the OR-22-GE, is not just the question of which registered voters (RV) turnout by county by party affiliation, but ultimately more about overall RV Turnout (TO) by county.



Additionally we might have potential data points to potentially do a compare contrast model vs '18 GE when the first AVR laws passed in Oregon.

The extra variable we have this year, is that now it will also be possible to assess two consecutive GEs in Oregon, where ballots are now considered received from when they were first postmarked.

Still, although there is plenty of time remaining on the clock, it is patently clear that MultCo and WashCo turnout is much lower than expected overall, in what are now generally overwhelmingly DEM breadbaskets for Statewide elections.

Get it--- voters in the Rose City might be holding off trying to figure out some of their city and country voting, so dip into the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy and "DON'T PANIC"

Also--- still important to note that generally those counties in Oregon with the highest votes received thus far, tend to be the oldest in terms of population.

Important to consider as well are the counties with some of lower turnout levels, also have competitive US House Elections.

Plus we got guns on the ballot, health care on the ballot, measure to penalize politicians that don't show up for work at the state legislature...

Linn County has a really competitive Sheriffs Election between to candidates both of whom don't agree in enforcing Oregon Gun Laws?

Lots of reasons why people don't vote off the bat in Oregon, but def we need to follow Total RV % returns in MultCo and WashCo down to the wire, since looking pretty clear PUBs are mobilized much more than DEMs in Eastern OR.

[Ferguson97]

Dumb it down for us, good for Dems or good for the GOP?

[Zedonathin2020]

Dumb it down for us, good for Dems or good for the GOP?

More than likely Oregon will have its first Republican Governor in over 30 years.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon Ballot updates from the 11/3/22 7:17 AM daily update...

It is possible for OR-DEMs to lose the daily Turnout % battle, while also simultaneously snagging a healthy +6.5k margin padding.

Busy watching My Igglies looking at still being undefeated in the NFL, so some distractions...




Yesterday's numbers for context:

11/2/22 UPDATE:

DEM: 240,982 Returned     (+20,898 DVs Day-On-Day)
DEM: 1,020,961 Registered
DEM TO %: 25.7% TOTAL TO to date (+2.1% Day-On-Day)

PUB: 189,061 Returned   (+23,855 RVs Day-On-Day)
PUB: 736,671 Registered
PUB TO %: 28.9% TO to date  (+3.2% Day-On-Day)

OTHERS: 156,098 Returned    (+15,525 RVs Day-On-Day)      156,098
OTHERS: 1,236,032 Registered
OTHERS TO %: 12.6% TO to date  (+1.2% Day-On-Day)



11/3/22 UPDATE:

DEM: 312,080 Returned     (+71,098 DVs Day-On-Day)
DEM: 1,020,961 Registered
DEM TO %: 30.6% TOTAL TO to date (+4.9% Day-On-Day)

PUB: 252,507 Returned   (+63,446 RVs Day-On-Day)
PUB: 736,671 Registered
PUB TO %: 34.3% TO to date  (+5.4% Day-On-Day)

OTHERS: 186,924 Returned    (+30,826 RVs Day-On-Day)      156,098
OTHERS: 1,236,032 Registered
OTHERS TO %: 15.1% TO to date  (+2.5% Day-On-Day)

More likely to follow...

EDIT: Corrected a few typos since apparently I was so excited about my Eagles win, that I neglected to double check a few data entry values.

[NOVA Green]

So here's another angle on it...

Pretty clear that overall voter turnout is significantly lower not only the core Metro PDX Counties (MultCo, WashCo, and ClackCo) than one might normally expect at this point in the election cycle, but also running a bit thin the Northern-Mid Valley in the new CD-06 (Yamhill, Polk, and Marion).

The DEMs really should hope this is a result of localized issues within Metro PDX, and possibly the typical later voting day response among younger DEM base voters in that part of the Mid-Valley.

There is still plenty of time on the clock, but *at this point* in the GE Election Cycle, Oregon PUBs clearly appear to have momentum, in terms of overall RV TO Levels, as well as extremely low RV TO levels in some of the largest DEM strong holds in Oregon.

Regardless, the burden of proof is on Republicans to show that they can win statewide races, congressional district races, etc and on top of that to show that they aren't simply "renting seats"...

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I think the only feasible interpretation of these turnout patterns that allows Kotek to win is if Betsy Johnson vote has collapsed to near null figures in rural areas but many Dem-leaning voters are weighing between a vote for her and a vote for Kotek, in which case you would expect them to take longer to vote than usual.

These turnout patterns are exactly what you'd expect to see if Oregon turns blood red tbh.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think the only feasible interpretation of these turnout patterns that allows Kotek to win is if Betsy Johnson vote has collapsed to near null figures in rural areas but many Dem-leaning voters are weighing between a vote for her and a vote for Kotek, in which case you would expect them to take longer to vote than usual.

These turnout patterns are exactly what you'd expect to see if Oregon turns blood red tbh.

Drazan winning by 2-3 points is not a “blood red” result .

[Figueira]

If Kotek wins, what are the odds she becomes the Lamont to Brown's Malloy? Or is that a crude analogy?

[NOVA Green]

Here are the updated numbers for the 11/4/22 7:38 AM OR-SoS Ballot Return by County Report.

As I have been doing, will posted the previous reporting days number for context:

11/3/22 UPDATE:

DEM: 312,080 Returned     (+71,098 DVs Day-On-Day)
DEM: 1,020,961 Registered
DEM TO %: 30.6% TOTAL TO to date (+4.9% Day-On-Day)

PUB: 252,507 Returned   (+63,446 RVs Day-On-Day)
PUB: 736,671 Registered
PUB TO %: 34.3% TO to date  (+5.4% Day-On-Day)

OTHERS: 186,924 Returned    (+30,826 RVs Day-On-Day)      156,098
OTHERS: 1,236,032 Registered
OTHERS TO %: 15.1% TO to date  (+2.5% Day-On-Day)

11/04/22 UPDATE

DEM: 357,866 Returned     (+45,786 DVs Day-On-Day)
DEM: 1,020,961 Registered
DEM TO %: 35.1% TOTAL TO to date (+4.5% Day-On-Day)

PUB: 292,391 Returned   (+39,884 RVs Day-On-Day)
PUB: 736,671 Registered
PUB TO %: 39.7% TO to date  (+5.4% Day-On-Day)

OTHERS: 219,118 Returned    (+32,194 RVs Day-On-Day)
OTHERS: 1,236,032 Registered
OTHERS TO %: 17.7% TO to date  (+2.6% Day-On-Day)

A few brief notes (Obvious to those following OR voter TO #s):

1.) PUBs continue to gain in total overall turnout levels among RVs over REG DEMs.

2.) DEMs continue to gain in total overall NET returned ballots.

3.) NPA and 3rd Party Voters continue to have both Total % TO numbers and NET RV voters significantly behind their overall State Party Registration.

A few more thought likely coming shortly...

[wbrocks67]

Do we know what the final EV total was in 2018?

[NOVA Green]

Do we know what the final EV total was in 2018?

No such thing as EV total in Oregon.

100% VbM state for a long time (First in the Country)

Also, Automatic Voter Registration (AVR) only kicked in at '18.

Now, the '20 GE allowed ballots postmarked on ED to be considered valid (COVID stuff).

Also, since '20 it is now free to mail in your ballot (no stamp required), so people don't need to worry about if they have stamps in their house, or how far away it is to drop their ballot off at the designated ballot drop site.

(Many PUBs like this as well, especially in more remote areas, where it might be a bit of a drive to the local ballot drop box, and rural postal mail routes might be considered a bit more sketchy in case somebody tries to steal your mail, but now you can track your ballot.)

In '21 OR GVT voted and now ballots in '22 are valid so long as posted on ED.

Maybe missing your question, and not trying to score points, but not quite sure exactly what your question is?

There is a decent chance we won't even know rough final OR TO levels until a couple days after election day, since basically OR has gone the route of CA and WA when it comes to mail ballots.

[wbrocks67]

I meant what was the final VBM total ("early vote") going into Election Day. Target Smart has these by voter registration:

2018: 1.86M (42.0% D, 30.3% R, 27.7% other)
2020: 2.38M (39.8% D, 28.8% R, 31.1% other)

[NOVA Green]

I meant what was the final VBM total ("early vote") going into Election Day. Target Smart has these by voter registration:

2018: 1.86M (42.0% D, 30.3% R, 27.7% other)
2020: 2.38M (39.8% D, 28.8% R, 31.1% other)

Gotcha you...

The numbers I have from my 2020 Oregon tracking sheet based upon the 11/2/22 SoS AM votes received dump was:

*** Note- it could be that Target Smart got updated End of day numbers by directly contacting the County election offices? ***

TOTAL:   1,969,549
DEM:         836,045      (42.5% of TVs)       79.3% of DEM RVs     
PUB:          560,390      (28.4% of TVs)       73.7% of PUB RVs       
OTHER:      573,114      (29.1% of TVs)       50.5% of OTHER RVs

If we contrast the 2020 data by looking at the last vote dump before the election day weekend:

We see that Dems held a significantly larger Turnout lead than they do for the 2022 election:

TOTAL:   1,806,172
DEM:         785,234    (43.5% of TVs)       74.5% of DEM RVs     
PUB:          506,416      (28.0% of TVs)     66.6% of PUB RVs       
OTHER:      514,522     (28.5% of TVs)      45.3% of OTHER RVs

Granted, this is not totally insurmountable and it could simply be that without Trump on the ballot DEM inclined voters are simply holding out longer getting their ballots turned in, but still this is definitely something that I would be a bit concerned about if I were a Democratic strategist or campaign advisor.