Oregon Governor Megathread

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

I literally just saw an ad where Kotek is trying to tie Drazan to Kate Brown lol

Yeah it has something to do with Brown’s (real or perceived) inaction on the housing crisis.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I literally just saw an ad where Kotek is trying to tie Drazan to Kate Brown lol

Yeah it has something to do with Brown’s (real or perceived) inaction on the housing crisis.

Yah it still something that the Democratic Nominee is trying to run away from the Democratic Governor in a state like Oregon the way Kotek has been doing.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I literally just saw an ad where Kotek is trying to tie Drazan to Kate Brown lol

Biden was in Oregon the other day campaigning for Kotek. I'm surprised she didn't try to keep him at arm's length.

Biden though is still way more popular here than Kate Brown and Drazan has campaigned harder against Brown than Biden for sure. In fact this was their reaction to Biden coming:

A spokesperson for Drazan’s campaign said “Kotek is desperate to talk about anything other than her allegiance to Kate Brown and the agenda they’ve pushed that’s caused massive homelessness, rising crime and higher costs. They know Christine Drazan is going to win this race and there’s nothing they can do to stop that from happening.”

KOIN 6 News asked Betsy Johnson what she thinks about Biden’s visit.

“I hope he comes more often so that Portland will finally clean up more of the trash and tent cities that Tina’s created between the airport and downtown Portland,” Johnson said.

https://www.koin.com/news/elections/gubernatorial-candidates-respond-to-polls-bidens-visit-to-oregon/

[Ferguson97]

I literally just saw an ad where Kotek is trying to tie Drazan to Kate Brown lol

Biden was in Oregon the other day campaigning for Kotek. I'm surprised she didn't try to keep him at arm's length.

If you're the kind of person who would dislike Kotek because of Joe Biden, you're not voting for her anyway.

[Aurelius]

I literally just saw an ad where Kotek is trying to tie Drazan to Kate Brown lol

Biden was in Oregon the other day campaigning for Kotek. I'm surprised she didn't try to keep him at arm's length.

If you're the kind of person who would dislike Kotek because of Joe Biden, you're not voting for her anyway.

That's not how these things work.

[OSR stands with Israel]

In the Debate so far:

1. On Homelessness, Kotek is trying to tie Drazan to Kate Brown lol

2. They all oppose mandatory treatment for hard drug users

3. Betsy took a more pro cop stance than Drazan

4. Kotek distanced herself from the school lockdowns and Drazan called her out on it

5. Betsy was asked if she was a spoiler and she called Kotek the spoiler for spoiling the state and said she will not leave the state and then Kotek and Drazan attacked Betsy

[ProgressiveModerate]

In the Debate so far:

1. On Homelessness, Kotek is trying to tie Drazan to Kate Brown lol

2. They all oppose mandatory treatment for hard drug users

3. Betsy took a more pro cop stance than Drazan

4. Kotek distanced herself from the school lockdowns and Drazan called her out on it

5. Betsy was asked if she was a spoiler and she called Kotek the spoiler for spoiling the state and said she will not leave the state and then Kotek and Drazan attacked Betsy

At least Kotek seems to be acknowledging Kates Brown’s unpopularity. I always find politicians attaching themselves to someone who is deeply unpopular gets me upset regaurdless of what side it’s on.

[Green Line]

In the Debate so far:

1. On Homelessness, Kotek is trying to tie Drazan to Kate Brown lol

2. They all oppose mandatory treatment for hard drug users

3. Betsy took a more pro cop stance than Drazan

4. Kotek distanced herself from the school lockdowns and Drazan called her out on it

5. Betsy was asked if she was a spoiler and she called Kotek the spoiler for spoiling the state and said she will not leave the state and then Kotek and Drazan attacked Betsy

Betsy is by far the best option for Oregon, its a shame she's getting squeezed by the swamp.

[Aurelius]

2. They all oppose mandatory treatment for hard drug users

Which of these do you mean?

A. They think that people should be allowed to use hard drugs freely without having to go to treatment

B. They oppose the current system in which hard drug use is decriminalized and the worst-case consequence is mandatory rehab

[OSR stands with Israel]

2. They all oppose mandatory treatment for hard drug users

Which of these do you mean?

A. They think that people should be allowed to use hard drugs freely without having to go to treatment

B. They oppose the current system in which hard drug use is decriminalized and the worst-case consequence is mandatory rehab

For Drazan and Betsy it’s clearly B while for Kotek it’s pretty much A

[Aurelius]

2. They all oppose mandatory treatment for hard drug users

Which of these do you mean?

A. They think that people should be allowed to use hard drugs freely without having to go to treatment

B. They oppose the current system in which hard drug use is decriminalized and the worst-case consequence is mandatory rehab

For Drazan and Betsy it’s clearly B while for Kotek it’s pretty much A

lmao

Not gonna move this to Likely R, but that almost sounds like Kotek is trying to lose.

I still don't get how that ballot measure passed, the one decriminalizing meth and heroin. Let alone with 58% of the vote. I'm 90% sure that would fail in California.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

2. They all oppose mandatory treatment for hard drug users

Which of these do you mean?

A. They think that people should be allowed to use hard drugs freely without having to go to treatment

B. They oppose the current system in which hard drug use is decriminalized and the worst-case consequence is mandatory rehab

For Drazan and Betsy it’s clearly B while for Kotek it’s pretty much A

🙄

[OSR stands with Israel]

2. They all oppose mandatory treatment for hard drug users

Which of these do you mean?

A. They think that people should be allowed to use hard drugs freely without having to go to treatment

B. They oppose the current system in which hard drug use is decriminalized and the worst-case consequence is mandatory rehab

For Drazan and Betsy it’s clearly B while for Kotek it’s pretty much A

lmao

Not gonna move this to Likely R, but that almost sounds like Kotek is trying to lose.

I still don't get how that ballot measure passed, the one decriminalizing meth and heroin. Let alone with 58% of the vote. I'm 90% sure that would fail in California.

Kotek won’t directly say it but if you oppose repealing that measure without mandatory treatment then yah your position is effectively A .

That measure passed cause they claimed people would get treatment rather than go to jail which made it sound good on paper . It would not have passed if people would have known these consequences:

https://www.oregonlive.com/health/2022/09/oregons-drug-decriminalization-effort-sends-less-than-1-of-people-to-treatment.html?outputType=amp

[Farmlands]

2. They all oppose mandatory treatment for hard drug users

Which of these do you mean?

A. They think that people should be allowed to use hard drugs freely without having to go to treatment

B. They oppose the current system in which hard drug use is decriminalized and the worst-case consequence is mandatory rehab

For Drazan and Betsy it’s clearly B while for Kotek it’s pretty much A

lmao

Not gonna move this to Likely R, but that almost sounds like Kotek is trying to lose.

I still don't get how that ballot measure passed, the one decriminalizing meth and heroin. Let alone with 58% of the vote. I'm 90% sure that would fail in California.

Kotek won’t directly say it but if you oppose repealing that measure without mandatory treatment then yah your position is effectively A .

That measure passed cause they claimed people would get treatment rather than go to jail which made it sound good on paper . It would not have passed if people would have known these consequences:

https://www.oregonlive.com/health/2022/09/oregons-drug-decriminalization-effort-sends-less-than-1-of-people-to-treatment.html?outputType=amp

Yeah, a "decriminalisation" system where less than 1 percent of people go into treatment and the $100 fine is waived if you promise to definitely call a hotline is not that, it's just full-blown legalization. People deep in addiction often require tough love, or else you'll get the present situation in Oregon.

[wbrocks67]

It sounds like the debate was illuminating in that Johnson clearly showed she's the crazy dingbat that she is, and clearly playing spoiler here.

[Pollster]

This race feels like a rare example of three very serious, credible, and well-funded candidates all running really bad campaigns. I don't think I've ever seen a non-Presidential or New York City mayoral campaign in which all of the credible candidates were so uniquely unappealing in their own independent ways, had such easily exploitable vulnerabilities, and consistently failed over the course of the campaign to play up any of their strengths. It's one of those situations where it feels almost like a shame that one of them has to win.

[NOVA Green]

2. They all oppose mandatory treatment for hard drug users

Which of these do you mean?

A. They think that people should be allowed to use hard drugs freely without having to go to treatment

B. They oppose the current system in which hard drug use is decriminalized and the worst-case consequence is mandatory rehab

For Drazan and Betsy it’s clearly B while for Kotek it’s pretty much A

lmao

Not gonna move this to Likely R, but that almost sounds like Kotek is trying to lose.

I still don't get how that ballot measure passed, the one decriminalizing meth and heroin. Let alone with 58% of the vote. I'm 90% sure that would fail in California.

Kotek won’t directly say it but if you oppose repealing that measure without mandatory treatment then yah your position is effectively A .

That measure passed cause they claimed people would get treatment rather than go to jail which made it sound good on paper . It would not have passed if people would have known these consequences:

https://www.oregonlive.com/health/2022/09/oregons-drug-decriminalization-effort-sends-less-than-1-of-people-to-treatment.html?outputType=amp

Well... IMHO concept is good.

Don't sent people to jail because they are hard drug addicts and basically divert folks out of the criminal justice system and into treatment.

I voted for this ballot measure as did a large majority of Oregonians, and honestly I don't have any regrets.

We voted to raise our "weed tax" to pay for an expansion of drug treatment centers on a ballot initiative.

The implementation is where the major problems arise.

There wasn't really a GVT system built up able to structure the program and provide proper resources.

Cops basically backed off of even putting folks into the diversion and drug treatment programs.

Still, just like I learned from my Dad who spent decades in AA, and later on a 12-step Christian Recovery Program, where he was a mentor in SoCal, you can't force drug addicts to treatment.

At one point in the early 2000's, I went through a bit of Cocaine addiction, which I hid from my family for a couple years.

At one point at that time I even spent a couple times where I was smoking Crystal Meth through the Pipe, literally three doors down from where I was living, and next thing you know it is now 3 AM and I am in a completely different city.

Then next thing you know the Sun is rising and it is 7 AM, and after multiple discussions with an unemployed logger, roughly 15+ yrs older than me, who lived in one of the apartments next door, who didn't touch the "White Stuff", sharing shots of Whiskey while he is showing me his AR and Deer Hunting Crossbow, while we discuss the politics of the "Spotted Owl" controversy, had to catch a $20 cab ride to the place I was living, while meanwhile the "hardcore" have been away for a couple hours  gone trying to score another "Teener" of Crys.

Finally told my Dad on a phone call, since he was the only family member that might understand, and he books a rapid flight from SoCal to visit me in Mid-Valley Oregon, and I voluntarily started going to NA meetings.

I digress a bit with my personal stories from a couple decades back, but reality is that drug/ alcohol addiction is generally a symptom of much broader problems, and simply blaming the addict for being addicted is no solution.

Root cause of homeless in Oregon has 90% to do with the lack of affordable housing, where we are now one of top 1-2 States in the Country when it comes to % of homeless vs total population.

Meanwhile it is estimated that something like 20% of Oregon rental properties are owned by outside business investors, not just from the US, but also from overseas...

Really easy for rich folx in suburban and metro PDX to blame the homeless for being homeless, not to mention redneck type people further downstate.

Reality is that Oregon has become a State where hardly any working class person who doesn't own their own home can afford to live here anymore.

Substance abuse rates have gone through the roof as those displaced from the extreme gentrification and massive increase in housing costs start to fall through the cracks.

It's always really easy to blame the victim, instead of focusing on the real underlying conditions....

IMHO... although I am an Athesist, Ted Wheeler can go to f**king Hell, since he is simply just a basic politician who might have a (D) behind his name, but basically parrots the lies of the bosses.

[NOVA Green]

Nike weighs in on the OR-GOV race... going the opposite direction from Phil Knight:

As ballots arrive in voters’ mailboxes, Nike has made its first contribution in the governor’s race—$75,000 to Democratic Party nominee Tina Kotek.

In a race that has already shattered the previous record for spending ($40 million in 2018), a $75,000 check is hardly noteworthy, except when it comes from Oregon’s largest homegrown company. (Nike employs more than 8,000 people at its Washington County headquarters.)

Nike gave similar amounts to the previous two Democratic candidates for governor—Kate Brown and John Kitzhaber. In those races, however, the company gave earlier in the cycle, so its check today is the first signal of which candidate the company favors.

https://www.wweek.com/news/2022/10/21/nike-weighs-in-on-governors-race-giving-tina-kotek-75000/

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

2. They all oppose mandatory treatment for hard drug users

Which of these do you mean?

A. They think that people should be allowed to use hard drugs freely without having to go to treatment

B. They oppose the current system in which hard drug use is decriminalized and the worst-case consequence is mandatory rehab

For Drazan and Betsy it’s clearly B while for Kotek it’s pretty much A

lmao

Not gonna move this to Likely R, but that almost sounds like Kotek is trying to lose.

I still don't get how that ballot measure passed, the one decriminalizing meth and heroin. Let alone with 58% of the vote. I'm 90% sure that would fail in California.

First off, it passed because the War on Drugs has resulted in a regime where ~100k people die every year from drug overdoses. The status quo where we impose harsh penalties on people for using drugs has been a tragic failure. Meanwhile, in Portugal, they decriminalized all drugs and mandated treatment - their outcomes have diverged massively from peer countries.

Decriminalization in Oregon hasn't really failed. What has happened is that drug use that was once in the shadows has been made public, which makes the crisis of heroin and fentanyl use visible instead of being in the shadows. On top of this, it generated incentives for homeless people elsewhere to come to Oregon if they are drug addicts because their drug use is, by definition, public to some degree. I'd argue this has nothing to do with decriminalization being a bad idea - it shows that it would be preferable to do it everywhere rather than using one state as a lab.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Nike weighs in on the OR-GOV race... going the opposite direction from Phil Knight:

As ballots arrive in voters’ mailboxes, Nike has made its first contribution in the governor’s race—$75,000 to Democratic Party nominee Tina Kotek.

In a race that has already shattered the previous record for spending ($40 million in 2018), a $75,000 check is hardly noteworthy, except when it comes from Oregon’s largest homegrown company. (Nike employs more than 8,000 people at its Washington County headquarters.)

Nike gave similar amounts to the previous two Democratic candidates for governor—Kate Brown and John Kitzhaber. In those races, however, the company gave earlier in the cycle, so its check today is the first signal of which candidate the company favors.

https://www.wweek.com/news/2022/10/21/nike-weighs-in-on-governors-race-giving-tina-kotek-75000/

What this shows is that Nike thinks that Kotek is going to win, right?

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Curious that every low-quality poll showing Drazan ahead by 1-2 points was posted, but this poll was skipped. Any way~

https://twitter.com/Civiqs/status/1583145140654219269?s=20&t=A4gXvm9otJZqtbV...

Far more believable and makes way more sense with the Wyden numbers.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Curious that every low-quality poll showing Drazan ahead by 1-2 points was posted, but this poll was skipped. Any way~

https://twitter.com/Civiqs/status/1583145140654219269?s=20&t=A4gXvm9otJZqtbV...

Far more believable and makes way more sense with the Wyden numbers.

That poll was not skipped as there are literally two threads about it, and Kotek's own internals have her up 2. Drazan also has a poll where she is up 6 so its not like there are not outlier polls that have Drazan up by a good deal either and Civiqs has a pretty bad track record.

[wbrocks67]

To be fair, the Kotek internal, and the Drazan one IIRC still had Johnson in high double digit teens. I would expect if Johnson sinks below <10% that a lot of that support would go to Kotek, but I guess we'll need to wait for further polling.

If Biden successfully helped nationalize the race, I think that will ultimately be helpful for Kotek.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Curious that every low-quality poll showing Drazan ahead by 1-2 points was posted, but this poll was skipped. Any way~

https://twitter.com/Civiqs/status/1583145140654219269?s=20&t=A4gXvm9otJZqtbV...
Far more believable and makes way more sense with the Wyden numbers.

That poll was not skipped as there are literally two threads about it, and Kotek's own internals have her up 2. Drazan also has a poll where she is up 6 so its not like there are not outlier polls that have Drazan up by a good deal either and Civiqs has a pretty bad track record.

I did a run-through of the polls board and didn't see any threads on it, but maybe I missed them. In any case, my point wasn't that this is some high quality, Grade A poll... But that this emerging narrative of Drazan leading is silly, particularly with Wyden leading in typical fashion in his race. This race is a toss-up at BEST but I maintain that Oregon's natural lean will bring it home for Kotek, especially with Betsy under 10.

[NOVA Green]

Still very early, but we are starting to see some ballots being returned & received in OR by local county election agencies.

10/26/22:

DEM: 71,067 Returned
DEM: 1,020,961 Registered
DEM TO %: 6.96% TO to date

PUB: 52,702 Returned
PUB: 736,671 Registered
PUB TO %: 7.15% TO to date

OTHERS: 37,525 Returned
OTHERS: 1,236,032 Registered
OTHERS TO %: 3.04% TO to date