Oregon Governor Megathread

[ProgressiveModerate]

Another issue where the three candidates differ is on the death penalty. Drazan and Johnson have promised to lift the moratorium on Oregon's death penalty, which has been maintained for more than a decade.

This is despite the fact that Oregon voters approved a constitutional amendment explicitly authorizing the death penalty. Kotek, on her part, wants to continue the moratorium. Of course, Oregon is a state where executions haven't been that common. But it's a notable difference, nevertheless, and shows that the Democratic nominee here is clearly more progressive on these kinds of issues than her two opponents.

Of course she is. Johnson is just playing the tiresome game "if you bring together the best of 2 sides, which are equally bad otherwise, something great happens". In the end, she just may help Drazan win with a plurality.

Actually at this point the democrats here believe it’s possible that Johnson could help Kotek win if she splits the right wing vote more which is why they have tried to paint her as Republican lite .

I doubt that, especially since Kotek seems to be the one with more problems than Drazen in a normal race and is hence more likely to have more base erosion.

Honestly I'm ok with Drazen winning if it teaches Dem a lesson, as long as Rs don't gain an outright trifecta.

[Hope For A New Era]

I've started thinking about maps. Do we think Johnson could win any counties? Which would be most likely? Does she seem to have a base of support in any location or demographic?

[Roll Roons]

I've started thinking about maps. Do we think Johnson could win any counties? Which would be most likely? Does she seem to have a base of support in any location or demographic?

If she wins any, it'll be Columbia. It's her home county and she represented it in the state legislature for 20 years.

And honestly, I think her support will draw about evenly from both parties - both Democrats who've disliked Kate Brown's administration and Republicans who don't like the direction of the party under Trump.

[NOVA Green]

Phil Knight just switched sides and donated $1 Million to Drazan.

Time to boycott Nike???

Oregon’s most well-known billionaire appears to have switched allegiance in the governor’s race.

After donating $3.75 million to unaffiliated candidate Betsy Johnson – including $2 million on Sept. 1 – Nike co-founder Phil Knight on Thursday contributed $1 million to Republican candidate Christine Drazan. His gift to Drazan was first reported by Willamette Week.

The donation comes as polls have consistently shown Johnson trailing far behind Drazan and Democrat Tina Kotek in the race for governor.

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2022/10/nike-co-founder-phil-knight-changes-course-donates-1-million-to-republican-governor-candidate-christine-drazan.html

Willamette Week (Free Metro PDX Weekly Indie rag) originally reported the story so feel free to click on the clink without paywalls:

WW reported Tuesday that Knight gave Johnson a $2 million check. But that transaction, although it only posted in the state’s campaign finance reporting system Oct. 3, actually occurred Sept. 1. That’s a long time ago in a race this competitive—and today’s contribution suggests Knight is shifting his focus to Drazan, whom he had not previously supported.

His check comes on the heels of a $250,000 check Associated General Contractors gave Drazan on Oct. 3 and a $1.5 million check the Republican Governors Association gave her Oct. 5.

Kotek has also reported a flurry of large donations in the past few days: $1 million from the Democratic Governors Association; $500,000 from the Pacific Northwest Regional Council of Carpenters; $330,000 from the Oregon League of Conservation Voters; and, $300,000 from the American Federation of Teachers.

https://www.wweek.com/news/2022/10/06/phil-knight-switches-candidates-contributes-1-million-to-republican-christine-drazan/

[wbrocks67]

This might actually be one of the spots where a Biden visit with Kotek would do more good than harm tbh.

[OSR stands with Israel]

This might actually be one of the spots where a Biden visit with Kotek would do more good than harm tbh.

The impact of these visits are overrated when it comes to general elections, especially when it comes to Gubernatorial races. Just look at Trump going into Kentucky in 2019 and Obama going to Virginia in 2021 for examples.

Also her problem is not really she has failed to rally the base but the fact there are a good amount of moderate to conservative democrats who might be a minority of the overall dem base but still represent a good amount of voters.

[Senator Incitatus]

Biden is campaigning here today. CNN is reporting it as a signal they lack confidence in AZ and NV.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden is campaigning here today. CNN is reporting it as a signal they lack confidence in AZ and NV.

I can totally see why Biden would campaign in Oregon and why there is a lack of confidence in Kotek winning, but why does this singular fact apply to Arizona and Nevada too? I get lacking confidence in Democrats winning in those states as well, but Biden probably wouldn't help much there unlike a state he won by 16 points and is pretty distinct from those two in spite of being part of the same region where him visiting might even be a detriment.

[Senator Incitatus]

Biden is campaigning here today. CNN is reporting it as a signal they lack confidence in AZ and NV.

I can totally see why Biden would campaign in Oregon and why there is a lack of confidence in Kotek winning, but why does this singular fact apply to Arizona and Nevada too? I get lacking confidence in Democrats winning in those states as well, but Biden probably wouldn't help much there unlike a state he won by 16 points and is pretty distinct from those two in spite of being part of the same region where him visiting might even be a detriment.

No idea. I mentioned it more to mock CNN than to present it as a true narrative.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden is campaigning here today. CNN is reporting it as a signal they lack confidence in AZ and NV.

I can totally see why Biden would campaign in Oregon and why there is a lack of confidence in Kotek winning, but why does this singular fact apply to Arizona and Nevada too? I get lacking confidence in Democrats winning in those states as well, but Biden probably wouldn't help much there unlike a state he won by 16 points and is pretty distinct from those two in spite of being part of the same region where him visiting might even be a detriment.

No idea. I mentioned it more to mock CNN than to present it as a true narrative.

Oh, okay, Fair enough. I guess we agree then.

[sg0508]

OR is just one of those states where until the GOP proves me wrong, I'll assume the Democrats will keep winning.

[Aurelius]

OR is just one of those states where until the GOP proves me wrong, I'll assume the Democrats will keep winning.

That was my initial assumption, since there are so many statewide races in Oregon where the Dem wins by high single digits. But Kate Brown is unusually unpopular, Betsy Johnson's candidacy complicates things, and we just keep getting poll after poll showing a statistical tie or a narrow Drazan lead. In 2018 Buehler only won a few polls, it was mostly just hopium from a long string of polls showing Brown up by only 3-5. Drazan has led in the last seven polls, even as Johnson's vote share shrinks.

[Ferguson97]

If Republicans can't eek out a win when the stars have aligned for them in this race, then I don't see them winning statewide anytime soon.

[NOVA Green]

It should be noted that there are significantly more DEM and DEM-LEAN INDIES that are undecided vs PUB and PUB-LEAN INDIES.

Measure 114 in theory might cause a segment of DEM and DEM-LEAN INDIES to vote for Betsy instead of Kotek in parts of downstate, although Climate Change issues could also be off-setting a bit especially in suburban PDX, not to mention similar types of voters in various parts of downstate OR.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Is a good comparison to this race 2018 Kansas?

[Aurelius]

Is a good comparison to this race 2018 Kansas?

Not really. Kobach was a much worse candidate than anyone in this race.

[fruitofstardew]

Is a good comparison to this race 2018 Kansas?

Not really. Kobach was a much worse candidate than anyone in this race.

I'd agree, but similar overall dynamics. Betsy will probably break 10%

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I mean would Oregon really execute people? I get repealing the moratorium but I can't see them actually going through with it.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

It should be noted that there are significantly more DEM and DEM-LEAN INDIES that are undecided vs PUB and PUB-LEAN INDIES.

Can anecdotally confirm this, have considered leaving the gubernatorial ballot blank despite the barrage of online Kotek ads.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have faith in 300K provisional ballots not just a poll there is no way Drazen or Johnson pills it out and they have narrow leads, it would be different if we didn't win all the close races last time the only close races is didn't win was VA and we already had 2Terms already just like I'm 2028 we should be disadvantage but Newsom or Ryan are far serperior than Harris and can win a 3T more than Harris but Ryan need to win his seat firsr

[OSR stands with Israel]

I literally just saw an ad where Kotek is trying to tie Drazan to Kate Brown lol

[Orwell]

Dems not looking good here, Drazan has the Big Mo' and Kotek isn't popular.

[Calthrina950]

I literally just saw an ad where Kotek is trying to tie Drazan to Kate Brown lol

Biden was in Oregon the other day campaigning for Kotek. I'm surprised she didn't try to keep him at arm's length.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is near 50% in blue states the OH and BC polls show Biden at 39% favs in Red states

[Progressive Pessimist]

I literally just saw an ad where Kotek is trying to tie Drazan to Kate Brown lol

Biden was in Oregon the other day campaigning for Kotek. I'm surprised she didn't try to keep him at arm's length.

There really isn't anything for Kotek to lose, honestly.