ME-02: Bathroom Bruce is IN

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If D's survived Collins whom was Practical in 2020 due to Trump, they can survive in 2022, the reason why LePage is doing poorly is because Collins has turned off Indies due to continued obstruction of VR, she won't win in 2026, she has sealed her fate

She voted for the Cares Act which helped her beat Gideon, but she is blocking HR 1, at least Murkowski is behind John Lewis

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1422700746479443970?s=21

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Golden isn't loosing sorry Rs Collins obstruction of VR reform is causing LePage to lose, Mills win win enough to help Holden, Collins is Gone in 2026

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1422700746479443970?s=21

Poliquin is one of the weaker candidates the GOP could run, but he'd probably still be favored.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt D only News like LePage and LePage is losing to Mills

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1422700746479443970?s=21

Poliquin is one of the weaker candidates the GOP could run, but he'd probably still be favored.

Would Poliquin have won had he ran in 2020?

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1422700746479443970?s=21

Poliquin is one of the weaker candidates the GOP could run, but he'd probably still be favored.

Would Poliquin have won had he ran in 2020?

Probably.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Poliqyin isn't favored Golden won this race in the same Environment that we have now Biden has the same Approvals as he had in 2020 50/45 on Election night and Delta and Economy will get stronger next yr

Recessions aren't forever, I'd Trump had the same Approvals as Biden Rs would be talking sweep in 2018

Crist is leading in a wave insurance seat DeSajtis, Rs won't take over H us they lose any wave insurance seat OH, FL, NC or IA

I'd we have Speaker Mccarthy we will have Gridlock as opposed to a D Trifecta, if D's get 52 votes and keep the H they can get rid of Fillibuster, but if Speaker McCarthy, without an R Prez for two yrs, he would need 60 votes to pass anything which means Gridlock

[MT Treasurer]

I’ll take Poliquin any day if the alternative is someone like Dale Crafts or some wild card who looks good on paper but ends up crumbling under pressure and barely makes a compelling case for firing the (skilled) incumbent. There might be more appealing candidates in theory, but the main reason Poliquin lost in 2018 was the turnout imbalance, and that’s not going to be replicated in 2022.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I’ll take Poliquin any day if the alternative is someone like Dale Crafts or some wild card who looks good on paper but ends up crumbling under pressure and barely makes a compelling case for firing the (skilled) incumbent. There might be more appealing candidates in theory, but the main reason Poliquin lost in 2018 was the turnout imbalance, and that’s not going to be replicated in 2022.

Biden has theme same exact Approvals as he did on Election night and we won in 2020, if Trump had the same Approvals he would have swept Congress in 2018/ and Biden Approvals will get better as Delta virus will talk back Tilt D and Mills will defeat KePage and Poliqyin will lose se

Golden won when Biden had 51/46% the same Approvals at the moment he has now and on Election night 2020 and will only improve

[Spectator]

I’ll take Poliquin any day if the alternative is someone like Dale Crafts or some wild card who looks good on paper but ends up crumbling under pressure and barely makes a compelling case for firing the (skilled) incumbent. There might be more appealing candidates in theory, but the main reason Poliquin lost in 2018 was the turnout imbalance, and that’s not going to be replicated in 2022.

While true, I think Golden is stronger now than in 2018, at least in terms of proving his willingness to break with the party.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Polquin is the same as LePage who is losing to Janet Mills retreads don't work just like Rs are retreading Josh Mandel whom lost badly to Sherrod Brown, I know Rs think OH is gone for D's but not the Senate race

Brown is gonna campaign for Tim Ryan because his reelection in 2024 depands on an expanded Senate map

Jim Renacci is gonna be the next Gov of OH, and Tim Ryan will beat Josh Mandel just like Brown won and DeWine won

Conservatives say it won't happen because 2818 won't be as big as 2022, but guess what we lost FL Gov and Crist is leading DeSantis


You can't compare Election cycles like that and especially since the Rs haven't won the NPVI since 2016 Benghazi Hillary

If that's so we shouldn't bother running candidates in wave insurance forever because D's can't compete like 2018, NOT

[MT Treasurer]

I’ll take Poliquin any day if the alternative is someone like Dale Crafts or some wild card who looks good on paper but ends up crumbling under pressure and barely makes a compelling case for firing the (skilled) incumbent. There might be more appealing candidates in theory, but the main reason Poliquin lost in 2018 was the turnout imbalance, and that’s not going to be replicated in 2022.

While true, I think Golden is stronger now than in 2018, at least in terms of proving his willingness to break with the party.

Yes, I think ME takes the cake in the bipartisan, biennial 'how easily can we fool voters into believing we’re moderates' 50-state contest, and that’s not an easy feat because the competition is really stiff. My absolute personal favorite are 'centrist' Collins/King/Golden voters — it’s like being proud of your naïveté and just flaunting your ignorance.

I have no doubt that Golden's brand will be more difficult to dismantle than that of any other House Democrat, and any Republican running against him should consider themselves really lucky that there’s a Democratic trifecta right now.

[GoldenMainer]

Bathroom Bruce must have had a difficult job back in the private sector. Poor thing.

[Chips]

As others have said, Golden appears to be an underdog though it won't be impossible for him to win. To be favored, Maine-2 will probably need to be re-drawn to the point where Trump would've only won the re-drawn district by about half the margin he did in 2020.

[SnowLabrador]

Bathroom Bruce must have had a difficult job back in the private sector. Poor thing.

Wait, why is he called Bathroom Bruce?

[beesley]

Anyone remember this?

[Meatball Ron]

Bathroom Bruce must have had a difficult job back in the private sector. Poor thing.

Wait, why is he called Bathroom Bruce?

https://www.facebook.com/BrucePoliquin/posts/846607682112367

[David Hume]

It’s unlikely legislative Dems will be able to draw a favorable map (maps require 2/3rds supermajority to pass) but they could kick it to the 6-1 Democrat Supreme Court. If the new ME-02 is Trump+4 or less, I could see Golden being favored. If it remains similar to the Trump +7 district it is now, it’s probably a tossup or worse for Golden. I don’t imagine the district becomes more Republican, considering population growth patterns within the state.

In what sense is the current ME2 line illegal? What can the dem court do about it?

[The Mikado]

It’s unlikely legislative Dems will be able to draw a favorable map (maps require 2/3rds supermajority to pass) but they could kick it to the 6-1 Democrat Supreme Court. If the new ME-02 is Trump+4 or less, I could see Golden being favored. If it remains similar to the Trump +7 district it is now, it’s probably a tossup or worse for Golden. I don’t imagine the district becomes more Republican, considering population growth patterns within the state.

In what sense is the current ME2 line illegal? What can the dem court do about it?

He doesn't mean having the courts overrule anything, he means that if the redistricting for the 2020s cycle fails to come up with a result, drawing the new map gets kicked to the ME Supreme Court.

All states are required to redraw their districts every decade so that the districts are of even population, even if nothing else has changed, and so ME-01 and ME-02 need their lines adjusted for that purpose. A least-change map would have ME-02 take in some small bits of ME-01 and drift from, like, Trump +7 to Trump +5-6, but he's positing that the ME Supreme Court could do a more aggressive remap.

[GoldenMainer]

Wait, why is he called Bathroom Bruce?

He's famous up here for escaping a reporter's questions by walking into a women's bathroom.

[S019]

Poliquin just barely lost in the 2018 tidal wave, idk where this idea of him being a weak candidate comes from. Lean/Likely R, even if the district gets somewhat better, a midterm environment in even a moderately Trump seat should be enough to doom Golden.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Golden is gonna win, the Election isnt tomorrow it's 500 days from now, we know this, that Biden and Golden Approvals will be GOLDEN by Nov 2022

[NewYorkExpress]

Poliquin lost in 2018, and didn't run in 2020, in a race he probably would have beaten Golden in, and cleared the primary field.

I don't see Stewart (or anyone else) dropping out for him, and with ranked-choice, I don't think Poliquin wins the primary, especially if more candidates jump in (He's not going to be the second choice of Stewart voters, or of voters of other candidates in my opinion).

He'd still win the general, barring a clear Democratic Gerrymander, but I can't see him winning the primary.

Lean R with Poliquin or Stewart.

Primary is Likely Stewart.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Poliquin lost in 2018, and didn't run in 2020, in a race he probably would have beaten Golden in, and cleared the primary field.

I don't see Stewart (or anyone else) dropping out for him, and with ranked-choice, I don't think Poliquin wins the primary, especially if more candidates jump in (He's not going to be the second choice of Stewart voters, or of voters of other candidates in my opinion).

He'd still win the general, barring a clear Democratic Gerrymander, but I can't see him winning the primary.

Lean R with Poliquin or Stewart.

Primary is Likely Stewart.

LePage is loosing the same retread as Poliquin, Polquin isn't unbeatabe