Which shift was more painful to see?
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  Which shift was more painful to see?
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Poll
Question: Which shift was more painful to see?
#1
Miami-Dade
 
#2
Rio Grande Valley
 
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Total Voters: 65

Author Topic: Which shift was more painful to see?  (Read 737 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: July 17, 2021, 09:14:15 PM »

What shift towards Trump was more painful? Miami-Dade or the Rio Grande Valley?
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TML
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« Reply #1 on: July 17, 2021, 11:41:54 PM »

Clearly Miami-Dade. There, Trump gained almost 200K votes from 2016 to 2020, while he only gained about 66K votes in the RGV during the same time period. Furthermore, Democratic losses in the RGV could potentially be made up by gains in major urban/suburban areas elsewhere in TX, whereas a 20+ point shift in Miami-Dade may be more difficult for Democrats to make up elsewhere in FL.
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erwint.2021
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« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2021, 11:45:46 PM »

Well I suppose Miami-Dade is hard to see, but the RGV really highlighted the Democrats *even worse* performance among rural-working class voters of all races. The RGV is just the next tale in the story of the modern Democratic struggle to receive the working-class vote. Democrats mustn't lose any further ground in working-class America, or Pennsylvania might be gone.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #3 on: July 17, 2021, 11:52:15 PM »

Texas still swung and trended Democratic in spite of the massive shifts in the RGV.

Let's be honest. From a numerical standpoint, losing Zapata but flipping Tarrant, Williamson and Hays is a really good trade for Democrats. The more serious problem for them is that the overall margin in Harris didn't really budge.
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erwint.2021
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« Reply #4 on: July 17, 2021, 11:54:30 PM »

Texas still swung and trended Democratic in spite of the massive shifts in the RGV.

Let's be honest. From a numerical standpoint, losing Zapata but flipping Tarrant, Williamson and Hays is a really good trade for Democrats. The more serious problem for them is that the overall margin in Harris didn't really budge.

Yeah urban minority voters swung to Trump in Houston, suburbs swung left. However, look at the swing 2012 to 2016, that was a massive swing. Very similar situation in Orange County, CA. I think the Dems are doing pretty well for now in Harris Co.
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bagelman
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« Reply #5 on: July 18, 2021, 01:34:25 AM »

Texas still swung and trended Democratic in spite of the massive shifts in the RGV.

Let's be honest. From a numerical standpoint, losing Zapata but flipping Tarrant, Williamson and Hays is a really good trade for Democrats. The more serious problem for them is that the overall margin in Harris didn't really budge.

With that in mind, it was numerically worse that Miami-Dade shifted.

However I still say it's worse that the RGV shifted. These are small city and ruralish people and they just keep shifting away from Democrats. Trump won new voters. It's far more painful to see new voters, many who never voted before at all, come up to the ballot and vote Trump AFTER his terrible tenure in office. Democrats cannot win outside cities it seems. As for Cubans, they were just coming home because of something something Venezuela.
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #6 on: July 21, 2021, 04:39:33 PM »

Easily the RGV

This isn't the first time Republicans have done so well in Miami-Dade. Bush did better in 2004. Besides it was clear for a while that long term Florida is lost, too many retirees are moving in

But Texas hurts. At some point, Democrats won't be able to win in WI/MI/PA. I suspect that 2020 might be a last hurrah for the Midwest. Mayve a few more elections. Texas is badly needed to balance them out. I did not think Biden would win Texas, but I did hope and expect that it would be close, thus laying the blueprint for Democrats to win in 2024. Like how Hillary's close margins in Arizonia laid the groundwork for wins in 2018 and 2020

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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #7 on: July 21, 2021, 05:22:47 PM »

Easily the RGV

This isn't the first time Republicans have done so well in Miami-Dade. Bush did better in 2004. Besides it was clear for a while that long term Florida is lost, too many retirees are moving in

But Texas hurts. At some point, Democrats won't be able to win in WI/MI/PA. I suspect that 2020 might be a last hurrah for the Midwest. Mayve a few more elections. Texas is badly needed to balance them out. I did not think Biden would win Texas, but I did hope and expect that it would be close, thus laying the blueprint for Democrats to win in 2024. Like how Hillary's close margins in Arizonia laid the groundwork for wins in 2018 and 2020



Bush also did better in the RGV in 2004 (and lost MI/WI/PA by about the same or less) but OK, letís jump to hyperbolic conclusions about how these places are all gone for good rather than just having reverted to the pre-Obama norm.

Also Biden lost TX by about as much as Hillary lost GA and AZ.
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #8 on: July 21, 2021, 05:31:21 PM »

Easily the RGV

This isn't the first time Republicans have done so well in Miami-Dade. Bush did better in 2004. Besides it was clear for a while that long term Florida is lost, too many retirees are moving in

But Texas hurts. At some point, Democrats won't be able to win in WI/MI/PA. I suspect that 2020 might be a last hurrah for the Midwest. Mayve a few more elections. Texas is badly needed to balance them out. I did not think Biden would win Texas, but I did hope and expect that it would be close, thus laying the blueprint for Democrats to win in 2024. Like how Hillary's close margins in Arizonia laid the groundwork for wins in 2018 and 2020



Bush also did better in the RGV in 2004 (and lost MI/WI/PA by about the same or less) but OK, letís jump to hyperbolic conclusions about how these places are all gone for good rather than just having reverted to the pre-Obama norm.

Also Biden lost TX by about as much as Hillary lost GA and AZ.
Bush won the popular vote

If Trump won the popular vote, do you think Democrats would have won MI/WI/PA? But you are probably right, they might still be competeive for the near future
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #9 on: July 21, 2021, 06:20:30 PM »

Anyone who says RGV over Miami-Dade is someone who doesn't look at numbers and shifts and instead just look at maps and see which county changes to blue or red and vice versa. The latter is unfortunately a mostly unimportant metric when it comes to rural areas.

The Miami-Dade shift was far, far worse as it represents a massive shift in a highly populated area in a competetive-ish state. As Roll Roons said, TX still managed to shift and trend D despite the RGV shift. Dems improved in areas where millions of voters live, while Trump improved in areas where only tens of thousands live. The Miami-Dade shift, if sustained into 2024 and beyond, locks Dems out of FL.

Thinking of it in another way, Dems can lose the entire RGV and surrounding areas but easily make up for it by improving in each of the big metros (which they have been doing). Meanwhile, Dems continuing to lose ground in M-D will be very hard to counteract in the smaller metros of Tampa, Orlando, and Jacksonville.

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CookieDamage
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« Reply #10 on: July 21, 2021, 06:23:16 PM »

Well I suppose Miami-Dade is hard to see, but the RGV really highlighted the Democrats *even worse* performance among rural-working class voters of all races. The RGV is just the next tale in the story of the modern Democratic struggle to receive the working-class vote. Democrats mustn't lose any further ground in working-class America, or Pennsylvania might be gone.

Pennsylvania is hardly the bastion of working class America. It's economy is quite white collar. Philadelphia and its Dem-friendly suburbs are growing (albeit slowly), as well as the Allentown area too. The Pittsburgh area is no longer seeing steep losses either. Maybe Michigan fits the profile of a working class state better.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #11 on: July 21, 2021, 06:58:51 PM »

Rio Grande Valley. The warning signs were there for Miami-Dade and it just reinforces how difficult Florida is for Democrats to win in, which we also already had warning signs for. In Texas meanwhile, it's the reverse. This state is slowly moving Democrats' direction but such a collapse in the Rio Grande is still counterproductive to the party's future in the state.
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erwint.2021
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« Reply #12 on: July 21, 2021, 07:28:32 PM »

Well I suppose Miami-Dade is hard to see, but the RGV really highlighted the Democrats *even worse* performance among rural-working class voters of all races. The RGV is just the next tale in the story of the modern Democratic struggle to receive the working-class vote. Democrats mustn't lose any further ground in working-class America, or Pennsylvania might be gone.

Pennsylvania is hardly the bastion of working class America. It's economy is quite white collar. Philadelphia and its Dem-friendly suburbs are growing (albeit slowly), as well as the Allentown area too. The Pittsburgh area is no longer seeing steep losses either. Maybe Michigan fits the profile of a working class state better.

Yes, that was a bad example. The areas you mentioned are white-collar but I suppose a better term is rural instead of blue-collar. The same trend is similar, in my opinion, to the RGV. Dems believed the slip of rural voters was limited to white voters, however, this election shows that to be untrue. Dems slipped this election in rural areas regardless of color whether it be the Mississippi Delta, the RGV, or Southern Ohio.
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TRENDZZZ
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« Reply #13 on: July 21, 2021, 09:29:27 PM »

Miami-Dade, and by a lot!
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PR
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« Reply #14 on: July 21, 2021, 11:48:45 PM »

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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #15 on: July 22, 2021, 09:50:56 PM »

Easily the RGV

This isn't the first time Republicans have done so well in Miami-Dade. Bush did better in 2004. Besides it was clear for a while that long term Florida is lost, too many retirees are moving in

But Texas hurts. At some point, Democrats won't be able to win in WI/MI/PA. I suspect that 2020 might be a last hurrah for the Midwest. Mayve a few more elections. Texas is badly needed to balance them out. I did not think Biden would win Texas, but I did hope and expect that it would be close, thus laying the blueprint for Democrats to win in 2024. Like how Hillary's close margins in Arizonia laid the groundwork for wins in 2018 and 2020



Bush also did better in the RGV in 2004 (and lost MI/WI/PA by about the same or less) but OK, letís jump to hyperbolic conclusions about how these places are all gone for good rather than just having reverted to the pre-Obama norm.

Also Biden lost TX by about as much as Hillary lost GA and AZ.

No.
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Solid4096
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« Reply #16 on: July 28, 2021, 11:13:52 PM »

Here are RGV results from 2000 to 2020 by the way:

2000: Gore + 10.10
2004: Kerry + 1.47
2008: Obama + 22.94
2012: Obama + 24.73
2016: Clinton + 27.16
2020: Biden + 12.37
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #17 on: July 28, 2021, 11:38:22 PM »

Here are RGV results from 2000 to 2020 by the way:

2000: Gore + 10.10
2004: Kerry + 1.47
2008: Obama + 22.94
2012: Obama + 24.73
2016: Clinton + 27.16
2020: Biden + 12.37


Thatís wrong

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lower_Rio_Grande_Valley


Gore won by 19.6 points

Kerry won by 8

Obama won by 36.6 points in 2008

Obama won by 39.7 points in 2012

Hillary won by 38.6 points

Biden won by 16 points
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Solid4096
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« Reply #18 on: July 28, 2021, 11:45:17 PM »

Here are RGV results from 2000 to 2020 by the way:

2000: Gore + 10.10
2004: Kerry + 1.47
2008: Obama + 22.94
2012: Obama + 24.73
2016: Clinton + 27.16
2020: Biden + 12.37


Thatís wrong

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lower_Rio_Grande_Valley


Gore won by 19.6 points

Kerry won by 8

Obama won by 36.6 points in 2008

Obama won by 39.7 points in 2012

Hillary won by 38.6 points

Biden won by 16 points

That is an insanely miniature delineation of the RGV region. I was using this definition:

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Fusternino
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« Reply #19 on: August 01, 2021, 02:07:26 PM »

Here are RGV results from 2000 to 2020 by the way:

2000: Gore + 10.10
2004: Kerry + 1.47
2008: Obama + 22.94
2012: Obama + 24.73
2016: Clinton + 27.16
2020: Biden + 12.37


Thatís wrong

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lower_Rio_Grande_Valley


Gore won by 19.6 points

Kerry won by 8

Obama won by 36.6 points in 2008

Obama won by 39.7 points in 2012

Hillary won by 38.6 points

Biden won by 16 points

That is an insanely miniature delineation of the RGV region. I was using this definition:



I also went with a very broad definition in another post (i.e. any CD touching the border) and was told likewise. I think though that the border CDs in general is what should be looked at because in all 6 (yes, even El Paso) there were large shifts to Trump.
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #20 on: Today at 01:54:56 AM »

Miami-Dade county, for the magnitude of shift for such a large county in a high-spending, battleground state.
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