The Gathering Storm - Gameplay Thread (Late 1939)

[Lumine]

The Gathering Storm

The Cast:

German Reich: Führer Adolf Hitler (Dereich)
British Empire: Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain (NewYorkExpress)
Soviet Union:: General Secretary Josef Stalin (KaiserDave)

Republic of France: Prime Minister Édouard Daladier (Donerail)
Italian Empire: Duce Benito Mussolini (JacksonHitchcock)
Empire of Japan: Emperor Hirohito* (Ernest)
United States of America: President Franklin Delano Roosevelt (GoTfan)
Republic of China: Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek (Kuumo)
Spanish State: Head of State Francisco Franco (YPestis)
Republic of Poland: President Ignacy Moscicki (Devout Centrist)
Kingdom of Romania: King Carol II Hozenzollern-Sigmaringen (RGM2609)
Republic of Turkey: President İsmet İnönü (Ishan)

[Lumine]

Turn I: Early 1939 (January-June)

Economic Performance:
Soviet Union: High
German Reich: High
Empire of Japan: High
United States of America: Moderate
British Empire: Moderate
Republic of Poland: Moderate
Kingdom of Romania: Moderate
Republic of France: Weak
Republic of Turkey: Weak
Italian Empire: Weak
Spanish State: Weak
Republic of China: Very Weak

Popularity:
Emperor Hirohito: Very High
Führer Hitler: Very High
President İnönü: High
Prime Minister Chamberlain: High
Duce Mussolini: High
Head of State Franco: High
President Moscicki: High
King Carol II: Moderate
President Roosevelt: Moderate
Generalissimo Chiang: Moderate
General Secretary Stalin: Low
Prime Minister Daladier: Low

Mobilization Level:
Total Mobilization: Republic of China
War Mobilization: Empire of Japan, Spanish State
Partial Mobilization: None
Conscription: Soviet Union, German Reich, Republic of France, Republic of Poland, Republic of Turkey, Italian Empire, Kingdom of Romania
Voluntary Army: United States of America, British Empire
Demilitarized: None

British Empire:

Prime Minister,

With the Munich Conference having seemingly averted another European War, the government’s strategy of “appeasement” enters a decisive stage, Herr Hitler having promised not to press for further territorial gains in Europe after annexing the Sudetenland. Many questions remain unanswered in the realm of foreign policy, including the United Kingdom’s attitude not only towards Hitler, but also towards the Soviet Union – which may be an ally or a threat -, as well as General Franco and Mussolini, the former of which has expressed a wish for diplomatic recognition, and the latter of which has slowly but surely drifted into the German orbit. How will you deal with continental affairs?

Over the past three years Palestine has undergone a violent and bloody uprising by Arab insurgents, who have objected to the drastic surge in Jewish emigration that has taken place during the last decade. Although local forces and the British Army have strengthened control over urban centers, violence continues unabated in rural areas, and past attempts to get both Jewish and Palestinian leaders to achieve a compromise have failed. Thus, the Foreign Office request guidance on how to proceed, as well as to on whether the government has a long term policy in mind.

Although the current Parliament is set to last until November 1940, Conservative Central Office has begun to wonder if a snap General Election might be a worthwhile course of action. Having averted war due to the signing of the Treaty of Munich and in spite of harsh criticism from “anti-appeasers”, the government seems to be enjoying a surge in popularity, which could offer a chance to gain a personal mandate for a full term in office. Should an election be called? If so, how should your more hawkish rivals within the party – Churchill, Eden, Cooper – be dealt with?

Republic of France:

Prime Minister,

Having succeeded the more radical Leon Blum as Prime Minister, you have previously announced a drastic domestic programme of “firmness”, which has included the reveal of most of Blum’s statist or more left-wing policies – including the short lived 40-hour work week – in favor of harsh deregulation and pro-austerity measures designed to increase efficiency and promote rearmament. In this you have made an enemy of the French Communist Party (which has already attempted a General Strike), but Finance Minister Reynaud has made progress in garnering support from businessmen. How far will you in implementing the policy of “fairness”? Or is the government planning a different course of action?

After almost three years of civil war, General Franco and his Nationalist troops are on the verge of victory in Spain. The steady collapse of the Republican war effort has resulted in thousands of refugees flooding Southern France, a situation some fear would become exacerbated if Catalonia – or the Republic itself – finally surrenders. On one side, Franco’s government appears to be keenly interested on diplomatic recognition, and on the other, Republican Prime Minister Negrín makes continuous calls for last minute support, including access to Spanish Republican gold currently deposited in Paris. Will there be any last minute changes to the French policy of non-intervention? Should Franco be recognized?

Over the past few years a diplomatic and domestic crisis has developed within the French Mandate for Syria, due to the Turkish claim over the province of Alexandretta, very recently reorganized under joint Franco-Turkish control as the “Republic of Hatay”. Thus far, Ankara has been insistent on its pretension to annex Hatay under its full control, an outcome which, if realized, would likely be bitterly resisted by Syrian nationalists already resentful over continued French control of the region. How will you address this matter?

Soviet Union:

Comrade General Secretary,

After ceaseless hard work on behalf of the NKVD and the institutions of the Soviet state, the Soviet Union has been continuously purged of traitors and counter-revolutionaries within the ranks of the Red Army, the party, and some of the nation’s less trustworthy groups. There are, however, two crucial questions that remain to be answered regarding this subject. On one side, there’s the issue of whether new NKVD director Beria should continue the so called “purges” to further secure your personal rule and remove any hint of disloyalty in the state. On the other, what is to be done with former NKVD director Nikolay Yezhov, who, in spite of being demoted, continues to hold a few minor titles.

In spite of your spirited efforts to intervene in the Munich crisis, the Western powers chose to deal with Germany on the own, leaving the Soviet Union out of the decision process as Czechoslovakia was rendered vulnerable and virtually subservient to the Reich. This, in turn, has led Foreign Minister Litvinov – who, on account of his personal history, both despises and is despised by Germany - to wonder how the Soviet Union should attempt to influence the current balance of power in Europe, and what partnerships – or rivalries - should be sought in the new landscape created by Munich. How will you address the diplomatic front?

Although the Soviet Union has done its best to support the beleaguered Spanish Republic against the forces of international fascism, three years of war have left its government and armies weakened and virtually at Franco’s mercy. Nonetheless, Moscow still wields great influence within the Republican remnants – partly due to holding on to most of Madrid’s gold reserves – via the Spanish Communist Party as well as Soviet operatives, which brings up the question on how to proceed. Should a last ditch effort be attempted to arm the Republic despite the Franco-British embargo, or is Negrín’s government to be considered unsalvageable?

United States of America:

Mr. President,

A bold gamble to remove much of the internal opposition to New Deal policies within the Democratic Party has seemingly failed, as not only have the recent midterms resulted in Republican gains, but a new coalition of conservative Democrats and Republicans – the so called “conservative coalition” – now stands in the way. Opposed to what they consider to be policy excesses; the coalition poses a formidable obstacle to pass anything resembling the dramatic achievements of the past six years, and risks turning you into a lame duck for the rapidly approaching 1940 Election. How will you deal with Congress, and what policies will you be proposing?

Many of your efforts through the years have been hampered by the lack of appropriate resources and staff within the federal government, and particularly in the realm of the Presidency. Thus, the administration already attempted to pass a so called “Reorganization Act” through Congress, which would have provided both funding and legal standing to expand the powers and resources of the executive branch, only for the House to table the bill. Despite the drawbacks associated with the new Congress, some believe there may be an opening to make another attempt, while others warn of the dangers of an excessive concentration of power. What will you do?

You have seen events in Spain, China and Germany with great concern over the past few months, although it is clear that neither Congress nor the nation as a whole appears to share your more “internationalist” spirit in regards to foreign affairs. Even worse, legislation like the Neutrality Act of 1937 greatly hinders any potential attempts by the US government to aid a belligerent power, with the only serious concession to you – the so called “cash and carry” – about to expire in a few weeks. Will you be taking any additional stands regarding international affairs?

German Reich

Mein Führer,

Following the signing of the Treaty of Munich and the transfer of the entire Sudetenland to Germany, the Reich has managed to grow to an unforeseen degree over the past twelve months, significantly expanding its economic and war potential. Still, the question of the remnants of Czechoslovakia remains open, with the small Republic no longer in a position to resist an invasion whilst being left economically weakened. With proposals ranging from effective economic vassalage to more forceful means of action, what – if anything - should be done with the government at Prague?

The success achieved at both Austria and the Sudetenland has gone a long way in correcting some of the harsh punishments inflicted by the Treaty of Versailles, but not all of the Reich’s lawful territorial claims have been addressed yet. Not only is the matter of the Free City of Danzig still open, so is Memel, still held under Lithuanian control in circumstances which even the League of Nations once criticized. Still, such claims must also take into account the international context, the post Munich landscape opening up the question of Germany’s future partnerships and its attitude towards Britain, Poland, Romania and such other states. How will you proceed?

Although great success has been found in reversing the catastrophic economic situation inherited by the NSDAP back in 1932, questions continue to linger regarding the development of the German economy and the strong push towards rearmament. With critics such as Hjalmar Schacht having resigned in protest or now demoted, the lack of crucial goods and the eventual balance between domestic and military spending – the latter of which remains insufficient for areas like the Kriesgmarine - remain an important issue to be addressed, particularly in regards to the long-term health of the Reich’s economy. How should the Reich approach this matter?

Italian Empire:

Duce,

With the successful – if costly – annexation of Abyssinia into the new Italian Empire, a crucial step has been undertaken in the process of cementing Italy’s position and prestige in Europe, leaving the door open to further such conquests. Recently, you have made an open display before the French ambassador over your designs over currently French control, a controversial move which has raised the tension between both countries as Paris appears unlikely to be interested in any concessions. Having recently played a very successful and prestigious mediation role at Munich, Italy’s future relationship to Britain and Germany is likely to have far reaching consequences. How will you deal with the international front?

Italy has had designs on the Balkans as well over the past few years, although recent attempts to intimidate or woo certain neighbors have not yielded the desired results. Of particular interest is the case of Albania, which under King Zog I has grown heavily dependent on Italy on the economic and political front, while stubbornly clinging to its continued independence. Should there be any changes on the current Italo-Albanian relation, or is the present status quo judged desirable enough for the Empire?

Having assisted Franco since the beginning – at great economic and military cost – the Spanish nationalists appear to the verge of victory. Although a recent pact with the UK resulted in the Italian efforts being winded down, many believe Italy has played a decisive role in getting the Nationalists this far, and should be rewarded over her tireless efforts. Assuming Franco achieves his final and decisive victory, will Italy be seeking any concessions from the Generalissimo?

[Lumine]

Spanish State:

Caudillo,

Having broken the back of the Spanish Republican armies at the Ebro River bloodbath, your armies are replenished and able to re-enter the battlefield once again. Current efforts have destabilized the Republican position in Catalonia, leading most of your officers to advocate a swift offensive to smash what they believe is the Republic’s true heart. Others, however, worry about the prospect of international intervention as a consequence of it, continuing to believe Madrid is where the war will truly be won. How should the armies proceed?

Although the international support delivered by Germany and Italy – as well as their diplomatic recognition – has done much to consolidate the position of the Nationalist government, some key powers have not yet taken the step to recognize your government over the collapsing Negrín administration, chief among them Britain and France. Will you redouble your efforts to gain support from Paris and London, and if so, how should any negotiations proceed?

Having been confirmed as the head of state by your fellow generals back in 1936, a decision later reaffirmed at different opportunities, you may have the opportunity to wield unprecedented power across the Iberian Peninsula once the war is over, allowing you to remake the damaged nation to your own image. Still, many groups with different goals sustain your war effort – Monarchists, Carlists, the Falange -, raising the question on how exactly you intend to govern Spain, and whether any form of monarchy will be reestablished.

Empire of Japan:

Your Majesty,

After eighteen months in office, and having played a crucial role in the “China Incident”, Prince Konoe has tendered his resignation as Prime Minister. The resulting government crisis – and potential risk of public awareness of the present military difficulties – must be addressed, with either Konoe’s resignation being overridden or a new Prime Minister and cabinet appointed. With the Army, Navy and power players such as surviving genro Saionji Kinmochi all possessing interests of their own, a new government will at the same time struggle to assert itself, while offering the key opportunity a new course of action for the Empire.

Despite the promises of your humble subjects – and the enthusiasm of countless junior officers – China has not yet fallen before the might of the Japanese Imperial Army, opening up the prospect of a very long war against Chiang and his United Front. Although the current occupying forces now control virtually all of the major ports, the railways and much of northwestern China, Chiang’s withdrawal to Chungking makes it difficult to deliver a crippling blow to the Kuomintang in spite of its seemingly dire situation. Still, and even accounting for the costs of occupation, much of the army remains convinced that the “China Incident” is winnable, and the Chinese will be forced to come to the table. What should your new government attempt?

A series of troublesome reports have been received from the Kwantung Army, pertaining to recent tensions at the Mongolian-Manchukuo border. According to the Kwangtung Army, Soviet-Mongolian local forces are present stationed in areas that rightfully belong to Manchukuo, whereas the real border between both nations should be placed at the Khalka River (known as “Khalkin Gol”). As a result, local officers request permission to fortify their respective position, as well as the entire border to deter any Soviet aggression. What instructions should be issued?

Republic of China:

Generalissimo,

Two bloody years of war have left the Republic utterly exhausted, but still steadfastly unwilling to surrender or make any concessions to the Japanese invaders. While, on the bright side, your new capital of Chungking cannot be realistically approached by the Japanese – at least not yet – and the enemy appears to be overextended, the National Revolutionary Army is in dire shape and badly armed, suffering from substantial defections despite the mass recruitment of peasants into its ranks. There are those who believe planning and executing a counteroffensive is a must, whereas others advocate for trying to exhaust the Japanese rather than repeat previous aggressive strategies. What should be done?

The relocation of the government to Chungking has disrupted the already weakened hold of the Kuomintang over the warlords and much of the Republic’s government institutions, further diminishing the economic and administrative potential of your government. Not only that, corruption appears to be an ever endemic issue, causing further internal issues. How will you address the matter of internal governance from such a distant capital, and what will the government do with the countless warlords that still hold great influence?

Having lost Germany as a crucial trading partner and provided of military training and supplies, the only international help to arrive has been limited assistance from the Soviet Union, a neighbor which – due to your proverbial anti-communism – you’re not entirely comfortable depending on. With international assistance being paramount to offer resistance, but with any choice of partners potentially alienating others, difficult choices await you on the foreign stage. Who should the Republic of China approach for assistance? And what price are you willing to pay for it?

Republic of Poland:

After almost thirteen years in office as President of Poland, you’ve managed to become one of the three unofficial heirs to Marshal Pilsudski, a triumvirate that leads Poland alongside Foreign Minister Josef Beck and Marshal Edward Rydz-Smigly. With Beck firmly in command of foreign policy, Rydz-Simgly and yourself have held something of a soft power struggle, with Rydz leading a “hardline” militarist faction as opposed to your civilian-led “moderates”. Will you attempt to introduce any changes to this unofficial triumvirate dynamic, or set any specific goals for your faction?

The Polish Army has been acclaimed by the crowds upon entering the ethnically Polish Zaolzie territory, recently taken from Czechoslovakia as a surprising consequence of the Munich agreement in spite of deep resentment at Prague. With this move Poland has gained a crucial rail link, but serious questions are now open on what to do with sizable Czech minorities and a small amount of German residents. Although some advocate for a more tolerant approach, a majority is in favor of straight Polonization, either forbidding the Czech language or culture or simply expelling the Czechs back to their rump state. How should Zaolzie be governed?

Although Beck maintains the lead over foreign policy, your input as President will be crucial as Poland charts a difficult course, facing two potentially hostile regimes in Berlin and Moscow as neighbors. Although Poland officially has signed two non-aggression pacts with Hitler and Stalin, there is uncertainty as to whether either can really be trusted, and whether anti-communism or fear or German expansionism is the greater concern for the nation. The relationship between Poland and traditional ally Romania may also prove of significant importance. What sort of foreign policy will you try to promote with Beck?

Kingdom of Romania:

It’s been almost a year since a successful coup d’etat allowed you to dissolve the democratic government and reestablish a form of absolutism under a new Constitution, With martial law enacted and civil liberties suspended power has been centralized under your person, but a troublesome matter has arisen with the rapid deterioration of the Prime Minister’s health, Patriach Miron Cristea. Many believe Interior Minister Calinescu – increasingly seen as the government’s strongman – should be his successor, though some distrust the powers he continues to amass. Should Cristea be replaced with a healthier man? And should Calinescu be elevated?

The foreign policy of Romania has been shifting as of late, with fears of invasion and hostility from a number of neighbors sparking calls for closer ties to either Britain or Germany as a key economic partner and protector for the country, as well as discussions regarding the fate of the historic Polish-Romanian alliance. With the international situation rapidly changing and allegiances shifting, the opportunity is there for Romania to cling to neutrality or approach a key power, the consequences of which could be unforeseeable. What will you do?

Despite the execution of historic rival and Iron Guard leader Codrenau, the remnants of the fascist movement continue to fight against the royal autocracy. Unconfirmed intelligence reports suggest caretaker Iron Guard leader Horia Sima has fled to Yugoslavia or Germany, and is likely to continue the terror campaign against your government. How will you deal with the Iron Guard, and/or other opponents to personal monarchic rule?

Republic of Turkey:

It has only been two months since the untimely death of Kemal Ataturk, an unfortunate event which has kept the Republic of Turkey in deep mourning. Having succeeded Ataturk as President and leader of the party, you have been thrown into immediate conflict with Prime Minister – and longtime rival - Celal Bayar over economic policy. Whereas Bayar has always favored liberal economics, you have often sided with statist and interventionist stances, a division which matches the two largest factions within the party. Will you seek a compromise with Bayar, or perhaps take more drastic action to implement your favored programme?

Although Turkey has achieved great progress under Ataturk, there is much left to be done, particularly with regards to the weakened, insufficiently supplied armed forces. With European tensions seemingly lowered by Munich the more pacifist faction within the Cabinet suggests the opportunity is perfect to focus on economic development, whereas the hawkish faction believes Munich will prove insufficient, and Turkey must be ready for an eventual European war. Will you side with either faction? And or seek international support to develop the Turkish armed forces?

Turkey has been attempting for years to get France and its Syrian mandate to recognize the rightful claims of Ankara to the Republic of Hatay, a territory which you now share control over with the French. Still, this is seen as insufficient by most, who press for outright annexation of Alexandretta regardless of Syrian opposition to it. Will you maintain this stance and seek to persuade France of the validity of the Turkish claim?

[Lumine]

BREAKING NEWS

Nationalist offensive faces success - Barcelona surrounded!

Having decided on Catalonia as the key military target of the season, Francisco Franco's Nationalist forces launched an all-out offensive on the region in spite of the ongoing winter, with roughly 350,000 men led by General Fidel Dávila facing the remnants of the Republican Army led by the famous General Vicente Rojo. Although Rojo and his men held firm for a few days - aided by inclement weather -, the disparity in resources and reports of widespread defections (and/or sabotage from unidentified sources) soon led to a number of breakthroughs. Unexpectedly for Rojo, Dávila's forces swung north towards Girona instead of Barcelona.

Having concentrated his forces around the main city, Rojo was unable to prevent the Nationalists from reaching the sea, thus placing the Republic's capital under complete siege. As much as 200,000 refugees managed to flee north and illegally cross the border into France, but an even larger number has raced back to the increasingly besieged city. With President Azaña having previously departed for France and many members of the government mysteriously disappearing, its left to Premier Negrín and General Rojo to try and organize the defence of the city, which is reported by many sources to be a lost cause.

[Lumine]

The News - with Radio Crusader

"Tension rises in Western Europe following the latest statements by Prime Ministers Daladier and Chamberlain, both of which have expressed a sudden concern for General Franco's potential victory in the Spanish Civil War and the situation in Catalonia. The meaning of appropriate or necessary measures remains unclear..."

"The Spanish Nationalists launch an all-out offensive across Catalonia and central Spain, pushing the ill-equipped Spanish Republican Army to the brink of collapse. Although the fall of Barcelona appears to be imminent, Nationalist casualties are mounting after a surge in acts of sabotage close to the front lines..."

"His Holiness, Pope Pius XI, has died in Vatican City of a heart attack, the third in a short period of time, after seventeen years at the head of the Catholic Church. Preparations are now in place for a Conclave, the first since 1922..."

"The death toll stands at 30,000 after the recent and deadly earthquake in Chile, believed to have been 8,3 on the new Richter scale. President Aguirre Cerda has appealed for international aid..."

"Famed aviator Amelia Earhart has been officially declared dead, more than eighteen months after his mysterious disappearance in the Pacific Ocean. Many still speculate about her whereabouts..."

"There are reports of political strife in Belgrade, as the relationship between Regent Prince Paul of Yugoslavia and his controversial Prime Minister Milan Stojadinović has reportedly deteriorated rapidly, leading observers to speculate on the consequences of this rift..."

"A new Cabinet takes over in Tokyo as Prime Minister Fumimaro Konoe resigns, leading to his surprising replacement with General Kanji Ishiwara. With the Army seemingly behind the General, many wonder what's next for the Empire of Japan..."

[Lumine]

End of Early 1939

Map Changes:
-Significant Nationalist gains across Spain.
-Slovakian declaration of independence.
-Klaipedia/Memel separatism.
-Limited Japanese gains in China.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________

In the News:

Nationalist Triumph in Spain

Following three years of uninterrupted carnage, the Spanish Civil War has entered a decisive phase as the Nationalist Armies were able to launch a fullscale offensive against their battered opponents. Not having the means to resist a siege, the temporary capital of Barcelona fell after a few days of bitter street combat, depriving the Republicans from a crucial city. However, to widespread Nationalist surprise, a fleet of civilian French vessels - escorted by the French Navy - helped thousands of refugees to escape, a task their would soon repeat all over southern Spain. Prime Minister Negrín escaped Barcelona in a Republican destroyer, but was left unable to return to Madrid.

With Nationalist troops starting to break through the capital's defenses, and with most of the Spanish Communist Party's leadership - Negrín's key source of support - having disappeared, Spanish Republican Army units under Colonel Casado led a coup and surrendered the city to the Nationalists, hoping to receive amnesty in return. Despite the best attempts of General Rojo, resistance in Southern Spain has all but collapsed under the Nationalist offensive, leaving only pockets of resistance to face Franco. Unwilling to surrender, Negrín put down another coup attempt at the key naval base of Cartagena, rallying the Spanish Republican Navy to sail to Algiers in the hopes of receiving French support.

As thousands upon thousands of soldiers lay down their weapons and Southern France is filled with refugees - which, while competently managed, have caused much national controversy -, General Franco has obtained a dominant position in continental Spain proper, cementing his future prospects. However, with the spectre of foreign intervention still a possibility, many believe the war is not fully over yet.

Coup in Belgrade

Several weeks of steady conflict between leading Regent Prince Paul of Yugoslavia and his Prime Minister Milan Stojadinović erupted into open struggle, leading to a tense situation across the nation. Although rumors point out that Paul had planned for Stojadinović dismissal and/or arrest quoting his inability to come to terms with the Croatians and over matters of foreign policy, Stojadinovic seems to have found the necessary support for a preemptive strike. Denouncing the Regent as planning to overthrow King Peter II and sell the nation - and particularly Serbia - to separatism and foreign powers, Stojadinovic's Greenshirts (part of his Yugoslav Radical Union, the nation's leading party) and army units under General Milan Nedić placed Paul under house arrest. With young King Peter II only 16 years old - and with his views on the matter being unknown -, Stojadinovic has appointed himself Regent as well, pledging to form a "government of national salvation". The response from key actors such as the Croatian separatists and the army remains to be seen.

Separatist crisis in Central Europe!

With the Treaty of Munich granting Slovakia significant autonomy within the remnants of the Czechoslovakian state, Monsignor Josef Tiso, the new Slovakian Prime Minister, rapidly started to consolidate power and strengthen the autonomy of the region against the weakened government in Prague, with President Hacha being mostly powerless to stop it. With Tiso deploying increasingly militant rhetoric in favor of Slovakian independence and the separation of the Czechoslovakian Armed Forces into multiple entities, the government at Prague unsuccessfully tried to remove Tiso from office by force, leading to a major incident. Calling the intervention of Czech troops an act of war, Tiso and the Slovakian Parliament have declared independence, and immediately called for international support against Hacha.

On a separate account, a developing situation at Memel has also led to an international incident. Having recently elected a regional parliament with an overwhelming pro-German majority, Dr. Ernst Neumann - leader of those who support unification from the Reich - has rallied against continued Lithuanian control over the territory and their hardline "Lithuanisation" policies. Describing themselves as "victims", the local parliament has voted a resolution urging the Wehrmacht to enter the territory and annex it into the German Reich. As the Lithuanian government prepares a response, many point out a legal separation of Memel from Lithuania would require - per the Klaipėda Convention - support from Italy, Japan, the UK and France.

War in China continues:

Following the fall of the Konoe government and its replacement by a more military-heavy - if also more favorable to peace - cabinet let by General Ishiwara, hopes of a renewal in negotiations between Chungking and Tokyo were quickly dashed by Generalissimo Chiang's apparent opposition, as well as his (domestically) well received intent to continue the war. However, not all is well within the Kuomintang, as Chiang's old and still popular rival Wang Jingwei has relocated himself to French Indochina, expressing a willingness to enter into talks with Ishiwara and the new Japanese government.

On the occupied territories, the Imperial Japanese Army focused most of its effort against Chinese Communist pockets of resistance across the north, hoping to expand their control into rural areas and improve their logistical situation. These efforts have been only moderately successful, gaining some ground at a heavy cost as guerrilla-style warfare proves a challenging opponent. Attempts at decentralization have also been attempted, but the lack of individuals both loyal and suitably competent have made this a difficult proposition.

New Pope makes History:

Although much speculation centered around Cardinal Eugenio Pacelli as the strongest papabile and most likely successor to recently deceased Pope Pius XI, his candidacy was rumoured to have lost steam after the first few votes. Amidst talk of the importance of electing a non-Italian pope (the first in centuries) and facing a serious debate about whether to elect a "diplomat" or a more dogmatic minded head for the Church, a number of Italian candidates rose to frontrunner and then failed to garner the necessary support. In the end, it was the bid of Jean-Marie-Rodrigue Villeneuve, Archbishop of Quebec, which prevailed, providing the College of Cardinals with a more neutral minded alternative.

Choosing the name "Benedict XVI" in honor of Pius XI's predecessor, the new Pope (55 years old) is known for his staunchly conservative views on social policy, including issues such as women's suffrage. His election marks a historic moment as the first American pope, a notion which has been particularly celebrated across that continent. However, his particular stance on the current European conflicts and tensions remains mostly unknown, and his close ties to the French Canadian community may become a source of concern in the Dominion of Canada.

The World on July 1st, 1939

[Lumine]

Turn II: Late 1939 (July-December)

Economic Performance:
Soviet Union: High
Empire of Japan: High
German Reich: High
United States of America: Moderate
British Empire: Moderate
Republic of Poland: Moderate
Kingdom of Yugoslavia: Moderate
Dominion of Canada: Moderate
Republic of France: Weak
Republic of Turkey: Weak
Italian Empire: Weak
Spanish State: Very Weak
Republic of China: Very Weak

Popularity:
Emperor Hirohito: Very High
Führer Hitler: Very High
Prime Minister King: High
President İnönü: High
Duce Mussolini: High
President Moscicki: High
Head of State Franco: Moderate
Prime Minister Chamberlain: Moderate
President Roosevelt: Moderate
Generalissimo Chiang: Moderate
Prime Minister Daladier: Moderate
Regent Stojadinović: Low
General Secretary Stalin: Low

Mobilization Level:
Total Mobilization: Republic of China
War Mobilization: Empire of Japan, Spanish State
Partial Mobilization: None
Conscription: Soviet Union, German Reich, Republic of France, Republic of Poland, Republic of Turkey, Italian Empire, British Empire, Kingdom of Yugoslavia
Voluntary Army: United States of America, Dominion of Canada
Demilitarized: None

British Empire:

Prime Minister,

Although the Government has successfully introduced selective conscription in the UK via Parliament, and has achieved a steady pace in the ongoing rearmament efforts, the question of just how far can a more aggressive foreign policy be implemented has grown in prominence. Although recent events in Yugoslavia and Slovakia raise concerns, rhetoric towards a potential intervention in Spain has been met with skepticism at best, and many Conservative MP’s believe the public is not in an interventionist mood. Not only that, key members of the government, like Chancellor of the Exchequer Simon, resist increasing military spending beyond a certain point. How will you approach the matter of rearmament and foreign policy in the later part of this year?

In spite of promises of a White Paper outlining the creation of future Jewish and Arab states within Palestine, the strife surrounding the issue is yet to end, much like the uprising itself. With local commanders doing their best to prevent the violence to escalate yet again, a continued deadlock is maintained by the combined and steadfast refusal of Arab leaders to accept a partition of Palestine, and the insistence of Jewish leaders that the partition process include the transfer of Arab populations towards the eventual Arab state. Amidst fears that Britain may have to choose a side given the difficulty of securing a successful compromise, what should be gone?

International affairs may have consumed much of your time as Prime Minister, but your premiership was always intended to focus on domestic affairs as the key road to securing a personal legacy, which did result in efforts surrounding the improvement of industrial working conditions. With about a year to go until the General Election, some in the Cabinet wonder if the Government intends to pursue new domestic approaches or policies, and which of many potential areas – such as education, health or local government – should receive attention if so. Will you attempt to introduce a new domestic agenda, or maintain the course?

Republic of France:

Prime Minister,

After a seven-year term, moderate President Albert Lebrun is due to leave office, partly due to the unofficial convention that Presidents should serve a single term. With the President being elected by the combined vote of both parliamentary chambers, a number of scenarios are thus open, ranging from varying attempts to elect a Socialist President – suspected to be backed, separately, by Blum and Pierre Laval – to the right’s clamor for a man like Field Marshal Pétain to stand. With your personal standing and parliamentary support having the potential to swing the election, will you be presenting a mandate with your personal support? Side behind a prominent challenger? Perhaps, in the hopes of balance, try to persuade Lebrun to stand again?

Widespread efforts across Southern France have blunted much of the chaos that could have been created by the large-scale emigration of Spanish refugees, but the Spanish situation is very much far from resolved. Leaving aside the apparent unpopularity of such measures, Prime Minister Negrín and the Spanish Republican Fleet have arrived in Algiers following the virtual collapse of the Republican regime, openly requesting, if not outright support, at least asylum and basing rights. This, however, would run the risk of openly antagonizing Franco’s regime even further, and/or invite further intervention by other powers. On the other hand, in spite of the public lack of appetite for war, there are those – particularly in the parliamentary left – who would thoroughly welcome Negrín being given as much support as possible. What will you do?

The ongoing crises in Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia have concerned many in the foreign ministry, resulting a bitter debate regarding how to react to a complex landscape. On the Czechoslovakian side, President Hácha has condemned Slovakian attempts at secession, and has vowed – at least in public – to try and preserve the unity of his country, requesting diplomatic support to achieve such as task. This, however, might place France in an awkward situation, particularly if it requires the use of force by the Czechoslovakian Army. In Yugoslavia, the overthrowing of Regent Paul and the rise of Stojadinovic might potentially signal a drastic shift of the allegiances of the Little Entente, but the eventual consequences of intervening – and in favor of whom – pose a complex challenge as well. How should France handle these situations?

Soviet Union:

Comrade General Secretary,

Much of the Spanish Communist Party’s leading cadres have escaped the collapsing Spanish Republic on time, arriving on Moscow at the same time Negrín sails into French North Africa. Although Franco appears to have gained a clear upper hand in the conflict, there are still questions to be answer, as well as the potential for Soviet involvement. Among other issues, there is the question of whether to back Negrín’s efforts to maintain some sort of resistance, the ongoing efforts of Republican militias and/or units in areas that have not surrendered in Spain, and, of course, the gold issue, which a surviving Republican government may want to reclaim. How should this issue be handled?

The traitor Yezhov has been disposed of, ridding you of a potential foe and keeping Beria’s NKVD busy as the purges die down within the Soviet Union itself. Still, there is another source of dissent that has captured Beria’s attention: Trotsky. Your old rival continues to thrive in his exile in Mexico, redoubling his repeated efforts to undermine the Soviet Union and your personal rule with stunts such as the founding of the – so-called - Fourth International and even a planned trip to the United States. And although most of his followers have been tried and executed, some, like Christian Rakovsky, remain alive in prison. What should be done about Trotsky and his supporters?

As Lithuania and Germany face a complex process surrounding the Memel territory, a number of advisors wonder whether it is time to take action regarding the Baltic States, separated from Russia twenty years ago. The Soviet-Baltic relationship over the last few years has been uncertain, ranging from goodwill efforts to the construction of defenses on both sides of the border, partly due to Soviet aspirations to install military bases in Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia and potentially Finland as well. Although such a goal is likely to be resisted by Germany, Poland, or the Anglo-French alliance, there are those who believe the current situation offers something of an opportunity. Will you take any actions on the Baltic situation?

United States of America:

Mr. President,

Your efforts to work with Senator Hayden have been met with success, the proposed infrastructure expansion plan passing the Senate after much debate, with a bipartisan coalition defeating the also bipartisan conservative opposition. However, the initiative’s eventual outcome in the House remains a matter of concern, with a substantial number of Representatives citing the measure’s large costs as proof of supposed fiscal irresponsibility. What will you to get the infrastructure plan through Congress?

A recent decision by President Lazaro Cárdenas to nationalize the oil industry in Mexico was met with a harsh reaction by leading American and European companies, many of which have spearheaded a boycott of Mexican products. Although the State Department – invoking your “Good Neighbor Policy” – has thus far recognized Cárdenas’ legal right to nationalization, a number of American companies, including Sinclair Oil, continue to pressure the administration to support their efforts to secure a large compensation package with Mexico for the seized assets, a matter in which they have not found success. How will you handle the Mexican oil situation?  

Having unsuccessfully attempted to address the issue of international Jewish emigration a year ago at the Évian Conference, the debate surrounding the issue has been revived after the “Kristallnacht” events and the attempts by the St. Louis, a German ocean liner, to bring several hundred Jewish refugees to America. On the more pressing side, the St. Louis is requesting to land in Florida after unsuccessful attempts to dock in Cuba, a request Secretary of State Hull strongly opposes as impractical. On the more general side, with increased immigration by refugees being seen as politically toxic, and several potential European partners having already expressed their opposition to raise their own quotas, should the United States spearhead another attempt to address this situation?

German Reich

Mein Führer,

Recent developments in Slovakia and Lithuania require urgent attention, as decisions need to be made. On the Lithuanian front, the Memel Parliament has formally requested the entry of German troops to re-annex the territory back to the German Reich, a matter which has raised the question of the Klaipeda Convention and the potential reaction by its signatories. Meanwhile, in the Czech border, Monsignor Tiso has resisted attempts by Prague to be deposed, requesting urgent German support to consolidate and secure Slovakian independence. How will Germany handle these situations?

A persistent demand by the Reich ever since the Treaty of Versailles was signed has been the return of the German colonies in Africa and Asia that were seized by the then Entente powers, leaving Germany as one of the few European powers without any such overseas territories. Organizations such as the Reichskolonialbund continue to push for the cause of such colonies, the return of which would necessarily depend on British or French goodwill. There are many in the party which support the cause, although others argue colonies are a distraction from more pressing affairs. How will you handle the colonial issue?

Although European matters have been a necessary focus for the Reich in light of the events of the last two years, there are unanswered questions regarding foreign policy in the Americas and Asia as well. On one side, there is the ongoing Sino-Japanese conflict, which has resulted in the voluntary loss of German influence within China for the sake of a closer relationship with Tokyo. On another, there is South and Central America, which a number of leading German immigrants believe might be receptive to greater German influence, even at the risk of causing strife with Washington. How should the Reich approach – if at all – non-European affairs?

Italian Empire:

Duce,

The ousting of Regent Paul in Yugoslavia and the apparent rise of Prime Minister Stojadinovic opens up an interesting dilemma for the Empire. Although Stojadinovic is known for his pro-Italian, pro-Fascist sympathies, Italy has also been providing some degree of support towards Croatian separatism – including the Ustase movement -, both sides being perceived as politically incompatible due to their respective stances surrounding Croatia. An intervention in Yugoslavia might very well expand Italian influence to a significant degree, yet complicate the relationship with other powers interested on the Balkans. What will you do?

At present, the Italian colonial empire encompasses both Libya and Abyssinia, the latter of which is, of course, a very recent addition. Still, it remains a matter of concern for leading colonial officials – including Field Marshal Balbo and the Duke of Aosta – that both territories are drastically underdeveloped, particularly in terms of infrastructure. Still, advocates of further development of the colonies warn that such efforts might prove rather costly for the Italian economy, which is – theoretically – meant to benefit from the colonies in the first place. This, in turn, also raises the question of colonization, which has only been limited on Libya and almost negligible in Italian East Africa. How should colonial policy be handled?

Over the last few years, the Empire has been attempting both to reclaim and redistribute land (Battle for Land) and also secure drastic increases in the production of wheat (Battle for Grain), two key objectives of domestic policy. However, both goals have increasingly diverged in how compatible they are, with many experts warning that land reclamation projects have been costly and have taken much longer than intended, and that truly significant land redistribution to peasants would undermine the Battle for Grain. Should there be any changes on these policies?

[Lumine]

Spanish State:

Caudillo,

The Spanish Republican Army has been broken, and only pockets of isolated resistance – particularly by militiamen – now stand in defiance across Southern Spain. Extensive operations across the past three years have allowed for the pacification of much of the territories held by your government, but there are vast regions of Spain – including Madrid and Barcelona – which are only just now under Nationalist control, just as there are thousands of recently surrendered soldiers who have been promised a pardon. How will you handle the issue of pacification now that the biggest obstacle has been removed?

Victory and what appears to be an inevitable victory parade at Madrid cannot, however, hide the fact that Spain has suffered greatly from the civil war. Not only is the economy in a dire state, there are widespread food shortages – almost famine – in many cities previously under siege or recently captured. To that one must add the ongoing political question, as the many groups that support the new regime are likely to demand clarity regarding the future and whether, for example, the monarchy is to be restored. How will you handle the domestic front?

In spite of the Republican collapse, Negrín and many of his supporters have fled with the Republican Fleet to French North Africa. Despite recent naval losses, the enemy fleet is still sizable and a great loss to Spain if not recovered, but whether the French government will see the situation from your point of view remains to be seen. There is also the fact that the Spanish Army, which can field roughly a million men, a size too large for what appears to be the coming peacetime. What should be done regarding recent aggressive rhetoric from France and Britain, the current state of mobilization, and the Republican forces in exile?

Empire of Japan:

Your Majesty,

General Ishiwara is now Prime Minister, his unmatched popularity among the ultranationalists – in spite of his odd beliefs – seemingly securing him an opportunity to govern without some of the constraints faced by his predecessors. Still, even if foreign policy remains the most pressing issue, Ishiwara has been rather outspoken in his belief that Japan must be radically reorganized to better face its challenges, rallying against “corrupt politicians and businessmen”, criticizing the existence of several political parties, and generally advocating for the so called “national defense state”. Just how far should Ishiwara be allowed to carry out his domestic policies?

Thus far Chiang remains publically unwilling to negotiate with Japan to bring an end to the ongoing incident in China, but efforts to find spirits willing to collaborate have not been met with failure. On one side, both Japanese-controlled regimes in North China have begun some degree of collaboration for future efforts, and none other than Kuomintang dissident Wang Jingwei has spoken in favor of peace from his exile in French Indochina. How should the government and the army handle the issue of negotiations with the different Chinese factions and/or potential representatives?

Perhaps one of General Ishiwara’s most curious qualities is his sincere and somewhat controversial belief in pan-Asianism, an ideology which seems at odds with the more aggressive stance undertaken with regards to current friendly governments and/or occupied zones. Indeed, Ishiwara’s advocacy for greater collaboration between Asian nations or peoples might also pose something of a risk and an opportunity considering both how extensive European colonies in Asia are, and how strained some have been lately due to a rise in nationalist or pro-independence movements. What should the policy towards pan-Asianism be?

Republic of China:

Generalissimo,

Thus far, the lack of extensive operations against the Japanese – or enemy offensives against the National Revolutionary Army – have given your troops much needed respite and a chance to recover from previous crippling blows. Still, it remains a fact that the NRA suffers from a lack of consistency in equipment, doctrine and training – having heavily depended on Germany before Berlin sided with Tokyo -, which is further exacerbated by the fact that so many units are under effective control of the warlords. Do you have any plans to address this crucial problem?

Chungking has been rocked by the sensational news of Wang Jingwei’s willingness to negotiate with Japan, a bid that might restore him to some of the influence he lost after being defeated in his internal power struggle with you. Although Wang’s views are unpopular across most of the territory held by the Kuomintang – which stands behind your unwillingness to cede land to Japan -, he could very well become a thorn if put on a position of power, leading intelligence agents to suggest that something should be done about him. How will you handle Wang?

Back in 1937, the aftermath of the Xi’an incident ensured a truce with the Chinese Communist Party in order to face the enemy threat as a United Front, but the alliance has been difficult to maintain due to the stark differences between both the Kuomintang and the Communist forces. Lately – and as the CCP faces the bulk of current Japanese efforts – there have been multiple complaints by Nationalist forces in central China that the Communist militias of General He Long have been expanding in an aggressive manner, forcing Nationalist volunteers to join their forces lest they be charged with collaboration with Japan and destroyed. Will you do anything about He, or should these incidents be ignored due to the present situation?

Republic of Poland:

The ongoing Slovakian push for independence and the resulting crisis with the Czechs has been met with a degree of uncertainty at Warsaw, with the resulting disagreement as to how to approach the crisis. Foreign Minister Beck has strongly pushed for support of Monsignor Tiso as a means to further undermine Prague – still bitterly resentful over Munich - and perhaps secure a new ally for Warsaw, which does contrast with the general indifference of Rydz-Simgly towards the matter. Of course, there are those who believe the situation might be a no-win one, should either Hitler or Hachá benefit from the crisis to either expand their area of influence or re-centralize the remnants of Czechoslovakia. What should be done?

In spite of hopes that the Baltic States might be receptive to Polish diplomatic overtures, a number of issues have prevented current efforts from finding the desired success. On one hand, a substantial part of the Polish military remains interested in the prospect of forcefully expanding their influence in Lithuania, which has resulted in previous diplomatic incidents. On the other, the “Baltic Entente” itself is already a very loose alliance of sorts, with the Baltic States expressing a common interest in neutrality as opposed to more proactive efforts, partly due to their keen desire to avoid conflict with Moscow or Berlin. Will you redouble efforts on this front, despite the internal opposition?

Thus far, the current Polish regime – cemented by the 1935 constitution – has only gone so far to secure its rule, guaranteeing that the current and elected Parliament is both handpicked and safely controlled, but not formally banning the opposition parties, keeping them in control with mostly informal means. This is not the preferred stance of the followers of Rydz-Simgly, many of which believe more forceful means are required to protect the current status quo and keep Poland safe from its domestic and foreign enemies. How will you deal with the political question?

Kingdom of Yugoslavia:

Regent,

Weeks of strife between Regent Paul and yourself have finally come to an end, as a seemingly successful coup d’etat has left you in control over Belgrade as Regent to the still adolescent King Peter. With your rival under house arrest and General Nedic leading the pro-government forces, it still remains to be seen whether the coup and the proposed government of national salvation will be able to consolidate control. What methods will you employ to secure full control over Yugoslavia? And how will you organize the new government?

As the example of General Franco and others show, international support might well be key to an early consolidation of power, or, conversely, to an internal conflict or an outright war. With your pro-Italian views being a matter of public record, many wonder how closely will you tie yourself with Mussolini, and whether your government will seek support from other potential partners across Europe, including such potential targets as Poland, Germany, France or the United Kingdom. Who should be approached for support, and how?

Perhaps one of the most pressing matters to be addressed is that of Croatian autonomy or independence, a persistent challenge to those in favor of the continuation of a unitary – and not federal - Yugoslavian state, persistently championed by Vladko Macek’s Croatian Peasant Party (as well as extremists like Ustace or the Communists). Although you have attempted in the past to portray yourself as the leading voice and leader of the Serbs – and thus strongly rejected demands for autonomy -, the present situation has resulted in mixed views among your current supporters. Some believe a negotiation with Macek will be inevitable once power is secured, whereas others believe this might be a key opportunity to get rid of the Croatian opposition. What will you do?

Republic of Turkey:

Having succeeded Ataturk as President and leader of the party, you have been thrown into immediate conflict with Prime Minister – and longtime rival - Celal Bayar over economic policy. Whereas Bayar has always favored liberal economics, you have often sided with statist and interventionist stances, a division which matches the two largest factions within the party. Will you seek a compromise with Bayar, or perhaps take more drastic action to implement your favored programme?

Although Turkey has achieved great progress under Ataturk, there is much left to be done, particularly with regards to the weakened, insufficiently supplied armed forces. With European tensions seemingly lowered by Munich, the more pacifist faction within the Cabinet suggests the opportunity is perfect to focus on economic development, whereas the hawkish faction believes Munich will prove insufficient, and Turkey must be ready for an eventual European war. Will you side with either faction? And or seek international support to develop the Turkish armed forces?

Turkey has been attempting for years to get France and its Syrian mandate to recognize the rightful claims of Ankara to the Republic of Hatay, a territory which you now share control over with the French. Still, this is seen as insufficient by most, who press for outright annexation of Alexandretta regardless of Syrian opposition to it. Will you maintain this stance and seek to persuade France of the worthiness of the Turkish claim?

Dominion of Canada:

Having gained a significant amount of autonomy due to the 1931 Statue of Westminster, and having always possessed very clear personal ideas as to how Canadia should act, you have led a government that has done its best to assert Canadian autonomy in a matter of fronts, including foreign policy. With allegiances in Europe seemingly shifting, and having once visited Herr Hitler in what you found to be a positive outcome, how closely - or not - should Canada align itself with Britain? What sort of foreign polilcy you do have in mind?

In general, Canadians appeared to have breathed a sigh of relief when the Treaty of Munich appeared to avert a deadly European war, but the potential for a conflict remains there due to a number of crisis that could very well escalate. Although the Canadian Armed Forces are small and underfunded, the government has found it politically difficult to ramp up rearmament due to its percieved unpopularity, making measures taken by the UK - like the introduction of partial conscription - seem rather impossible. How will you handle the issue of rearmament, and how aggressive or how passive should the government's stance be?

The election of a Canadian Pope, while a matter of national pride - and a historic achievement - also raises the very uncomfortable question of French Canadians and the difficulty in keeping them aligned with the government's point of view in a number of matters. Despite your best efforts, Quebec remains ruled by  Maurice Duplessis' Union Nationale, a Quebec autonomist party and a major thorn on your side, and the election of Benedict XVI will undoubtedly strengthen the Catholic clergy in Quebec, to the potential detriment to your government. How will you handle the election of the new Pope and the issue of French Canadians?