Next Nova Scotia general election

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are the transposed results of the last election on the new map: https://electionsnovascotia.ca/sites/default/files/TranspositionofVotesReport_2017PGE_2019ElectoralDirstricts_reportApril2021.pdf

There are 4 new ridings, and the Liberals won 3/4 of them. Additionally, boundary shifts in Richmond have given them that riding as well. 3/4 of their gains are a direct result of bringing back the minority ridings that the NDP got rid of.

The NDP are in that position of polling as well as they did last time, but seeming very unlikely to do as well.

I'd be interested to see the result in Glace Bay with John Morgan running - as we know candidates make a difference here.

The NDP hasn't done well in Glace Bay recently, but the next door Cape Breton Centre riding is very NDP friendly. The new map gives Glace Bay the heavily NDP voting Dominion neighbourhood, so it makes winning the seat a little bit easier for Morgan.

[Hatman 🍁]

I missed one other flip due to boundary shifts. Adding the Woodbine mobile park to Waverley-Fall River-Beaver Bank (from Tory-held Sackville-Beaver Ban) has made the riding a notional Tory seat (went Liberal in reality).

On another topic, would it be safe to assume the following ridings are potential NDP targets?

Halifax Armdale (used to be Alexa's old riding)
Sackville-Cobequid  (traditional NDP seat, lost in a recent by-election)
Glace Bay-Dominion (former CBRM mayor running)
Sydney-Membertou (fairly close last time, though boundary shifts make it harder to pick up)

[Hatman 🍁]

Confusingly, the new riding of Cape Breton East covers roughly the same territory as the old Cape Breton West riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP platform is out

Major items include:

• $15/hr minimum wage
• Requiring employers to offer two weeks paid sick leave
• Rent control
• Public option car insurance
• YUGE increases in mental health and long term care funding

Costing to follow later, but judging how there's only a smattering of tax hikes like a luxury tax on yachts and fancy cars, they're planning on running larger deficits for the forseeable future. This isn't the Darrell Dexter's NDP anymore (but we already knew that haha).

Someone mentioned on Twitter that they want to phase out coal by 2030 (confirmed after reading their platform). Will this not go over very well in Cape Breton? I'm not sure how similar they are to West Virginians in their attachment to coal.

[Hatman 🍁]

Former Dartmouth South candidate says Liberals dropped her over 'boudoir' photos

Quite the story here.

The Liberal candidate in Dartmouth South resigned as soon as the writ was dropped, citing mental health concerns. Now she is saying the Liberals dropped her because she has an OnlyFans account and told her to lie about it.

Amusing that she would run for the Liberals in the first place.

Didn't the Liberals try to get Lenore Zann in trouble for some topless pictures from he work as an actress? And she re-payed them by getting elected for them as an MP.

[Hatman 🍁]

Interestingly, the NDP is the first party to have nominated a full slate of candidates.

Good sign for them. They usually have to scramble to find candidates in their dead zone (e.g. Yarmouth)

Does that have to do with Dexter and the ferry?

[Hatman 🍁]

And my prediction:

Liberal: 24
Tory: 23
NDP: 7
Independent: 1

I'm too lazy to write out every single seat, but here's a condensed version of my seat by seat prediction:

Independent: Smith-McCrossin in Cumberland North

NDP: All four currently held seats retained plus gains in Glace Bay-Dominion, Halifax Armdale and Sydney-Membertou

PC: All currently held seats retained, plus pickups in Antigonish, Colchester North, Guysborough-Tracadie  Lunenburg, Lunenburg West, Waverley-Fall River-Beaverbank.

Liberal: Losses noted above. Pick up Shelburne and Clare out of redistribution, pick up Richmond from Independent Alana Paon.

You don't think the NDP has a shot of winning Sackville back?

[Hatman 🍁]

I was walking around downtown last night with a friend, and noticed the results on someone's TV through a window. The NDP were on 10 seats, so I rushed home to follow the results. What a let down!

Burrill should probably be tossed. Basically status quo, but down 2 seats (let's be honest, they're not going to win the seat they're leading in) from the last election. I suspect he hangs on though. I'm happy they at least hung on to one Cape Breton seat. Too bad Morgan couldn't win Glace Bay.

[Hatman 🍁]

I was walking around downtown last night with a friend, and noticed the results on someone's TV through a window. The NDP were on 10 seats, so I rushed home to follow the results. What a let down!

Burrill should probably be tossed. Basically status quo, but down 2 seats (let's be honest, they're not going to win the seat they're leading in) from the last election. I suspect he hangs on though. I'm happy they at least hung on to one Cape Breton seat. Too bad Morgan couldn't win Glace Bay.

You are wrong, but I don't think anybody would have guessed Halifax Citadel if told the NDP would only gain 1 seat.

Yeah, I saw that. Amazing! Wonder why the advance votes were so different there compared to the other ridings they ended up losing.

[Hatman 🍁]

the three ridings with the biggest turnout were the minority franco ridings. Any reason why they have a larger turnout?