Next Nova Scotia general election

[mileslunn]

Election has not been called yet but there is speculation it will happen this summer before federal.  If not, by law must be by next May at latest.  I would think with the strong recovery and most getting vaccinated, it would be interest of Liberals to go sooner rather than later.  And also with lots of talk on federal elections that probably helps too as federal Tories very unpopular in Nova Scotia but provincial PCs are much more moderate and if federal in rear view mirror could do better.  While not a lot of polls my thoughts are as follows:

Liberals: Definitely the favourites, but have been in power for 8 years and are vulnerable on some fronts but still probably win, possibly a landslide if things go well.

PCs: More likely to lose than gain seats, but their leader is fairly competent and I've found in Atlantic Canada PCs almost always outperform pre-election polls.  Perhaps confusion with federal Tories who are a lot less popular there hurts them.

NDP: I think 2017 is when they had to come in second to establish themselves as main alternative to Liberals.  Fact they did not means they might have missed their window of opportunity to come back.

[mileslunn]

NDP platform is out

Major items include:

• $15/hr minimum wage
• Requiring employers to offer two weeks paid sick leave
• Rent control
• Public option car insurance
• YUGE increases in mental health and long term care funding

Costing to follow later, but judging how there's only a smattering of tax hikes like a luxury tax on yachts and fancy cars, they're planning on running larger deficits for the forseeable future. This isn't the Darrell Dexter's NDP anymore (but we already knew that haha).

Yeah that is definitely an issue.  Ironically Rankin I believe promised a balanced budget in 4 years and I believe NS has one of the lowest deficits of provinces although large debt and huge issue with aging population.  As for tax hikes, surprise didn't include wealth tax or hike on top earners.  At same time quite possible both might actually be revenue losers.  Since people with money can work remotely, I think a wealth tax or hike on top earners has to be done federally as at least harder to move abroad and you can change the tax base whereas provincially most studies I have seen show they tend to not work.  You see same in US too.  Andrew Cuomo and Gavin Newsom both favour higher taxes on rich but both are opposed to state tax hikes on rich and argue any such hike needs to be federal as rich can just re-locate to lower taxed states like Texas or Florida. 

Really I think any party that wants to run on more programs should consider HST hikes provincially and GST federally.  Yes I know political suicide, but in Europe they fund their bigger welfare states through higher VATs, not higher income or corporate.  At same time to avoid hurting poor maybe should move to two tier VATs.  In most European countries you have reduced VAT for essentials which is usually only 5-7% while VAT for regular goods tend to be 20-25%.  Of OECD countries, I believe United States, Japan, South Korea, and Australia are only ones with lower VATs than Canada and first one has very weak welfare state while latter two are so-so.  Much more generous than US, but not as generous as most of Europe.

[mileslunn]

First poll post writ by Mainstreet https://ipolitics.ca/2021/07/26/n-s-liberals-hold-strong-lead-ahead-of-provincial-vote/ .  Good start for Liberals and definitely have edge, but I wouldn't totally count PCs out.  Different philosophically between two parties is small and as campaign progresses shift away from federal to provincial.  I've generally found PCs in Atlantic Canada tend to gain during campaign.  Probably not enough to win, but likely will go up as many associate them with federal Tories who are very unpopular in Atlantic Canada, but as campaign progresses when it becomes clear provincial PCs are still like the old PCs, not like the Reform party as federal party is, you tend to get many Red Tories who are not voting Liberal federally coming home.  So advantage Liberal, but unlike say federal where I would say a lead this big pretty much means game over; ideological differences are small enough a PC win, while not likely, still is possible. 

[mileslunn]

Seems not a lot of polling here.  Wonder if any others will put out any polls.  One we can pretty much be sure of is Forum at 11:59 AST on Sunday as they always release a final poll at latest moment possible and interestingly enough usually pretty accurate too.  in 2019, they were only pollster to show PEI PCs ahead.

[mileslunn]

Its going to be a tight race and minority looks more likely than majority but either PCs or Liberals could win a majority.  Since PCs have momentum and usually they tend to outperform polls, I am going to predict a PC minority.  Possible Liberals-NDP gang up to keep them out, but that would backfire spectacularly.  Really little ideological difference between two so its not like provinces further West where this might happen.  More comparable to PEI where Liberals and Greens could have united (not now but on election night) to keep PCs, but they didn't and NS PCs are very much like PEI PCs in ideological orientation.

[mileslunn]

Forum out early and largely same as Mainstreet http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/3081/tories-and-liberals-neck-and-neck-in-upcoming-nova-scotia-provincial-election/ .  Its going to be close but if either PCs or Liberals do a bit better than expected a narrow majority possible, although minority looks more likely than majority.

[mileslunn]

While not called, based on what I have seen, I think it will be a PC win.  PC majority if Tories do well in early vote, but PC minority if Liberals win most early votes.  I don't see how Liberals can pull this off, but maybe this will look silly, but right now, I am about 90% sure PCs will win most seats.