Next Nova Scotia general election

[DL]

There has been remarkably little polling in this election. Does anyone have the slightest idea who is winning or at least doing better or worse than expected?

[beesley]

There has been remarkably little polling in this election. Does anyone have the slightest idea who is winning or at least doing better or worse than expected?

Nope, outside of the big four provinces there's always a dearth of polling. Same thing happened in the Newfoundland election just gone.

[Benjamin Frank]

I don't know if anybody cares, but does anybody know who former Premier Darrell Dexter is supporting?

[DC Al Fine]

I don't know if anybody cares, but does anybody know who former Premier Darrell Dexter is supporting?

Darrell Dexter has been very quiet since leaving office, doubly so once he became a lobbyist. I honestly can't recall hearing a political thing from him since he lost in 2013.

[DC Al Fine]

In keeping with recent tradition, the Liberals released their costed platform, and they committed to spending slightly less than the Tories. The NDP haven't costed their platform yet, but just eyevalling it, they are committed to spending far more than either the Liberals or Tories.

[DC Al Fine]

Think I've made my decision.

I voted Liberal last time on the grounds that the Liberals were to the right of the Tories, and I really liked Stephen McNeil. I can't stand either Tim Houston or Rankin (especially Rankin), but Rankin's platform is slightly more fiscally conservative, and was oriented more towards the Halifax suburbs *.

I'm casting a personal vote for my Tory MLA, who I had a great experience with on a constituent issue, and am more or less indifferent to the overall result.

*The Tories under Jamie Baillie and Tim Houston have outflanked the Liberals and NDP on rural healthcare. This is a great example of Red Toryism that isn't the cliche fiscon-solib that pundits love but only 3% of the population supports.

[Benjamin Frank]

New poll! same as the old poll.

Leger, published August 2nd.

Liberal:42%
P.C: 32%
NDP:20%
Green: 5%

https://2g2ckk18vixp3neolz4b6605-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Nova-Scotia-Election-August-4th-2021.pdf

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Literally what are the differences between the Libs and the PC? I'm always surprised at how so many parts of Canada can get by with no real conservative parties.

[Benjamin Frank]

Literally what are the differences between the Libs and the PC? I'm always surprised at how so many parts of Canada can get by with no real conservative parties.

But, also no real liberal party.  I think they're both pretty much '3rd way centrism.'  Of course, that's not necessarily a bad thing, Nova Scotia is doing pretty well for the most part, even if it's mostly concentrated in the Halifax Metro Area.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Think I've made my decision.

I voted Liberal last time on the grounds that the Liberals were to the right of the Tories, and I really liked Stephen McNeil. I can't stand either Tim Houston or Rankin (especially Rankin), but Rankin's platform is slightly more fiscally conservative, and was oriented more towards the Halifax suburbs *.

I'm casting a personal vote for my Tory MLA, who I had a great experience with on a constituent issue, and am more or less indifferent to the overall result.

*The Tories under Jamie Baillie and Tim Houston have outflanked the Liberals and NDP on rural healthcare. This is a great example of Red Toryism that isn't the cliche fiscon-solib that pundits love but only 3% of the population supports.

Do the parties have any policy differences on immigration ? I know that Atlantic Canda is pretty active in it's use of the provincal nomination system but is the issue political ?

[Benjamin Frank]

Think I've made my decision.

I voted Liberal last time on the grounds that the Liberals were to the right of the Tories, and I really liked Stephen McNeil. I can't stand either Tim Houston or Rankin (especially Rankin), but Rankin's platform is slightly more fiscally conservative, and was oriented more towards the Halifax suburbs *.

I'm casting a personal vote for my Tory MLA, who I had a great experience with on a constituent issue, and am more or less indifferent to the overall result.

*The Tories under Jamie Baillie and Tim Houston have outflanked the Liberals and NDP on rural healthcare. This is a great example of Red Toryism that isn't the cliche fiscon-solib that pundits love but only 3% of the population supports.

Do the parties have any policy differences on immigration ? I know that Atlantic Canda is pretty active in it's use of the provincal nomination system but is the issue political ?

I believe all the parties are strongly in favor of more immigration.

[MaxQue]

And the Liberals seems very obsessed with the population of the province hitting 1 million.

[DC Al Fine]

The thing to remember about the Maritimes is that we still practice a very old school style of politics that's more about getting pork and patronage for the interests a party represents than ideology.

We still have political fights but they tend to be about whose highway gets repaved, or which region's healthcare is prioritized than the sort of things you'd see in Ontario or B.C.

E.g. The last Tory government put in price floors for gasoline, which is bizarre if you think of it from an ideological point of view, but it makes perfect sense if you view it through the lense of a party representing its backers' interests (in this case small business owners and rural communities not wanting to lose their gas stations)

[DL]

Newest poll shows NDP momentum at 27% and the Liberal lead drastically reduced from the previous poll by the same company Narrative

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/narrative-research-poll-liberals-pc-ndp-1.6137129

[mileslunn]

Seems not a lot of polling here.  Wonder if any others will put out any polls.  One we can pretty much be sure of is Forum at 11:59 AST on Sunday as they always release a final poll at latest moment possible and interestingly enough usually pretty accurate too.  in 2019, they were only pollster to show PEI PCs ahead.

[Benjamin Frank]

My semi prediction.  I think there are 23 competitive ridings including 4 3 way races, and one P.C-NDP competitive riding (Sackville-Cobequid.)  I can't remember all 4 I think could be three way races.

So, the safe ridings add up to 32 (55-23) and 22 of them involve the Liberals.

Liberal: 17-39
P.C: 12-30
NDP: 3-13

[Benjamin Frank]

What do I have to do, post a riding by riding prediction to get people interested in this election again?

[DC Al Fine]

What do I have to do, post a riding by riding prediction to get people interested in this election again?

I dunno. The local media are openly calling the election "sleepy" and "boring"

Not the most exciting campaign.

[Benjamin Frank]

What do I have to do, post a riding by riding prediction to get people interested in this election again?

I dunno. The local media are openly calling the election "sleepy" and "boring"

Not the most exciting campaign.

Hrm.  I've heard otherwise, that the Liberal/Iain Rankin gaffes have enlivened the campaign.

[Benjamin Frank]

What do I have to do, post a riding by riding prediction to get people interested in this election again?

I dunno. The local media are openly calling the election "sleepy" and "boring"

Not the most exciting campaign.

Hrm.  I've heard otherwise, that the Liberal/Iain Rankin gaffes have enlivened the campaign.

Oh, I might be right! This might be considered news:

https://twitter.com/quito_maggi/status/1426950762140246023

[DC Al Fine]

Hmm interesting, might be an exciting election night after all.

[DC Al Fine]

I'm vacationing in the North Shore region of rural Nova Scotia this week. I drove through Amherst, the only town of significance in Cumberland North and Elizabeth Smith-McCrossin is winning the sign war handily over Bill Casey. I only saw a lone Tory sign. Make of that what you will.

[VPH]

It's fascinating how blurred the ideological lines are in Nova Scotia. PC's seem to fall slightly to the left of the Liberals. I'll be interested to see whether Cape Breton continues to shift rightward.

[DL]

If the Nova Scotia Liberals lose their majority or lose outright - after calling an early election with a huge lead in the polls - it would be a very bad omen for the federal Liberals and would likely cast a shadow over Trudeau's whole first week

[Oryxslayer]

Mainstreet poll on the eve of election:

Liberals: 38%
PCs: 36%
NDP: 21%
Greens: 3%

16% of respondents are undecided, suggesting either low turnout or a volatile electorate even at this late stage.