Next Nova Scotia general election
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Author Topic: Next Nova Scotia general election  (Read 11973 times)
MaxQue
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« Reply #50 on: July 27, 2021, 08:53:08 AM »

Debate will be July 28, 6:00-7:30 Atlantic time.
Which parties are represented and by whom ?

Pretty standard. Liberal, Tory, NDP all represented by their leaders. The other parties have no seats and won't come close to running a full slate of candidates, so there's none of the drama around debates that you sometimes see at the federal level.
The Green party wasn't able to run a full slate ?

So far, 22 Greens filled paperwork, even through their website lists 40 candidates (they have until 5PM tomorrow to fill). That's still short of 55.

The only other registered party is the Atlantica Party, their only filled and announced candidate is their leader.

Surprisingly, Liberals are still missing 2 candidates and PC 1.
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #51 on: July 27, 2021, 09:35:10 AM »

Debate will be July 28, 6:00-7:30 Atlantic time.
Which parties are represented and by whom ?

Pretty standard. Liberal, Tory, NDP all represented by their leaders. The other parties have no seats and won't come close to running a full slate of candidates, so there's none of the drama around debates that you sometimes see at the federal level.
The Green party wasn't able to run a full slate ?

So far, 22 Greens filled paperwork, even through their website lists 40 candidates (they have until 5PM tomorrow to fill). That's still short of 55.

The only other registered party is the Atlantica Party, their only filled and announced candidate is their leader.

Surprisingly, Liberals are still missing 2 candidates and PC 1.

According to the Wiki Nova Scotia Election site, the Greens have 43 candidates, including 42 candidates in 47 ridings not including Cape Breton.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #52 on: July 27, 2021, 09:41:51 AM »

Debate will be July 28, 6:00-7:30 Atlantic time.
Which parties are represented and by whom ?

Pretty standard. Liberal, Tory, NDP all represented by their leaders. The other parties have no seats and won't come close to running a full slate of candidates, so there's none of the drama around debates that you sometimes see at the federal level.
The Green party wasn't able to run a full slate ?

So far, 22 Greens filled paperwork, even through their website lists 40 candidates (they have until 5PM tomorrow to fill). That's still short of 55.

The only other registered party is the Atlantica Party, their only filled and announced candidate is their leader.

Surprisingly, Liberals are still missing 2 candidates and PC 1.

According to the Wiki Nova Scotia Election site, the Greens have 43 candidates, including 42 candidates in 47 ridings not including Cape Breton.


The Green website has 41 candidates, which means there is 2 candidates on Wiki not listed on Green website (Hammond Plains - Lucasville and Eastern Shore).
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Independents for George Santos
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« Reply #53 on: July 27, 2021, 10:17:47 AM »

Debate will be July 28, 6:00-7:30 Atlantic time.
Which parties are represented and by whom ?

Pretty standard. Liberal, Tory, NDP all represented by their leaders. The other parties have no seats and won't come close to running a full slate of candidates, so there's none of the drama around debates that you sometimes see at the federal level.
The Green party wasn't able to run a full slate ?

So far, 22 Greens filled paperwork, even through their website lists 40 candidates (they have until 5PM tomorrow to fill). That's still short of 55.

The only other registered party is the Atlantica Party, their only filled and announced candidate is their leader.

Surprisingly, Liberals are still missing 2 candidates and PC 1.

What ridings are the Liberals and PCs missing? Did the Liberals not manage to replace the woman from Dartmouth?
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beesley
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« Reply #54 on: July 27, 2021, 10:29:30 AM »

Debate will be July 28, 6:00-7:30 Atlantic time.
Which parties are represented and by whom ?

Pretty standard. Liberal, Tory, NDP all represented by their leaders. The other parties have no seats and won't come close to running a full slate of candidates, so there's none of the drama around debates that you sometimes see at the federal level.
The Green party wasn't able to run a full slate ?

So far, 22 Greens filled paperwork, even through their website lists 40 candidates (they have until 5PM tomorrow to fill). That's still short of 55.

The only other registered party is the Atlantica Party, their only filled and announced candidate is their leader.

Surprisingly, Liberals are still missing 2 candidates and PC 1.

What ridings are the Liberals and PCs missing? Did the Liberals not manage to replace the woman from Dartmouth?

Liberals: Cumberland South and Dartmouth South (the riding you mentioned).
PCs: Cumberland North (the Independent Elizabeth Smith-McCrossin's riding)

The Greens candidates are very uneven. Virtually a full slate in Halifax itself and the South Shore and Annapolis Valley areas, but only one candidate on Cape Breton Island.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #55 on: July 27, 2021, 03:24:01 PM »
« Edited: July 27, 2021, 03:30:38 PM by MaxQue »

Debate will be July 28, 6:00-7:30 Atlantic time.
Which parties are represented and by whom ?

Pretty standard. Liberal, Tory, NDP all represented by their leaders. The other parties have no seats and won't come close to running a full slate of candidates, so there's none of the drama around debates that you sometimes see at the federal level.
The Green party wasn't able to run a full slate ?

So far, 22 Greens filled paperwork, even through their website lists 40 candidates (they have until 5PM tomorrow to fill). That's still short of 55.

The only other registered party is the Atlantica Party, their only filled and announced candidate is their leader.

Surprisingly, Liberals are still missing 2 candidates and PC 1.

What ridings are the Liberals and PCs missing? Did the Liberals not manage to replace the woman from Dartmouth?

Liberals: Cumberland South and Dartmouth South (the riding you mentioned).
PCs: Cumberland North (the Independent Elizabeth Smith-McCrossin's riding)

The Greens candidates are very uneven. Virtually a full slate in Halifax itself and the South Shore and Annapolis Valley areas, but only one candidate on Cape Breton Island.

For Cumberland South, there is nothing on Wikipedia or the PC website, but Elections Nova Scotia is saying they filled a candidate, David Wightman.

On Elections NS website, we also have 6 Atlantica candidates filled now (55 PC, 53 NDP (missing Clare and Inverness), 52 Liberals (the candidate in Halifax Armdale didn't file yet), 33 Greens and 4 independent also filled). They have until 2PM tomorrow to fill.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #56 on: July 28, 2021, 07:05:27 AM »

338Canada has a projection model for the election and it's just awful.

There's no attempt to deal with obvious star candidates like Bill Casey and John Morgan, and the model doesn't even include incumbent independent MLA's running for re-election.

Oh and to top it all off, the map is labeled "New Brunswick Projection"

When do I get my "Maritime Alienation" thinkpieces?
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #57 on: July 28, 2021, 08:37:32 AM »

338Canada has a projection model for the election and it's just awful.

There's no attempt to deal with obvious star candidates like Bill Casey and John Morgan, and the model doesn't even include incumbent independent MLA's running for re-election.

Oh and to top it all off, the map is labeled "New Brunswick Projection"

When do I get my "Maritime Alienation" thinkpieces?

Were they one of the pundits that joined in with the media in predicting Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows would be close in the B.C election because it was close in 2017?
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #58 on: July 28, 2021, 08:46:47 AM »

338Canada has a projection model for the election and it's just awful.

There's no attempt to deal with obvious star candidates like Bill Casey and John Morgan, and the model doesn't even include incumbent independent MLA's running for re-election.

Oh and to top it all off, the map is labeled "New Brunswick Projection"

When do I get my "Maritime Alienation" thinkpieces?
I don't think mathematical models are usefull when dealing with areas with such quirky politics.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #59 on: July 28, 2021, 09:13:24 AM »

338Canada has a projection model for the election and it's just awful.

There's no attempt to deal with obvious star candidates like Bill Casey and John Morgan, and the model doesn't even include incumbent independent MLA's running for re-election.

Oh and to top it all off, the map is labeled "New Brunswick Projection"

When do I get my "Maritime Alienation" thinkpieces?

Were they one of the pundits that joined in with the media in predicting Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows would be close in the B.C election because it was close in 2017?

Not sure. I didn't really follow BC's election
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beesley
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« Reply #60 on: July 28, 2021, 09:38:36 AM »

338Canada has a projection model for the election and it's just awful.

There's no attempt to deal with obvious star candidates like Bill Casey and John Morgan, and the model doesn't even include incumbent independent MLA's running for re-election.

Oh and to top it all off, the map is labeled "New Brunswick Projection"

When do I get my "Maritime Alienation" thinkpieces?

Were they one of the pundits that joined in with the media in predicting Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows would be close in the B.C election because it was close in 2017?

I seem to recall their final BC projection was pretty accurate, though given the scale of the win there I doubt they got it right. I think they predicted Fraser-Nicola as a likely NDP gain like most people, ignoring the candidate dynamics like they are here.

To be honest if Bill Casey is the candidate in this part of Nova Scotia he wins. He's Bill Casey for crying out loud.
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beesley
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« Reply #61 on: July 28, 2021, 11:27:09 AM »

No need to fear, the Liberals have a full slate now with Rollie Lawless running in Cumberland South, and Les Mackay running in Dartmouth South.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #62 on: July 28, 2021, 12:09:16 PM »

Link to the stream for tonight's debate if anyone's interested. Starts at 6pm Atlantic time.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #63 on: July 28, 2021, 02:27:27 PM »

No need to fear, the Liberals have a full slate now with Rollie Lawless running in Cumberland South, and Les Mackay running in Dartmouth South.

And we finished with 42 Greens, 17 for Altantica and 6 Independents.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #64 on: July 29, 2021, 06:53:31 AM »

How did the debate go?
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lilTommy
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« Reply #65 on: July 29, 2021, 07:50:25 AM »

I didn't watch, but a heavy political friend did and commented:
"I thought the PC leader TIm Houston landed some hits on liberal premier Iain Rankin, especially on the candidate, and that NDP leader Gary Burrill was able to cut through the bureaucratic back and forth of the other two to make his points in a clearer and more personal way."

Also from Saltwire? which I think is the Herald Chronicle:
https://www.saltwire.com/halifax/opinion/jim-vibert-bland-fare-served-up-at-nova-scotia-leaders-debate-100617512/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR2bQIvHQNOOr_p8vRIa_ZekI6-yxzRBe_mEu1K8K6gX82AlXOzYjnYuq5Q#Echobox=1627552999

"What Nova Scotians got from Liberal Leader Iain Rankin and Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Houston was, at best, a battle of competing nuances. The supper-time debate offered up pretty bland fare. A little spice was provided by NDP Leader Gary Burrill, whose ideas, while far from radical, are too bold for the Liberals and the Tories."
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #66 on: July 29, 2021, 08:37:01 AM »

That sounds incredibly boring.
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the506
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« Reply #67 on: July 29, 2021, 02:05:52 PM »

Houston was definitely the better communicator but I agree it wasn't enough to move many votes.
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Continential
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« Reply #68 on: July 31, 2021, 02:15:51 PM »

Here is a vote compass from CBC.
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beesley
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« Reply #69 on: August 01, 2021, 02:04:29 PM »


Based on this I got NDP 1st on 62%, PCs 2nd on 56%, Liberals 3rd on 55%.

The final screen notes that early vote turnout is very high - maybe reduced election day turnout will cancel that out, but it looks as if turnout will be at least somewhat higher.
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Vosem
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« Reply #70 on: August 01, 2021, 02:42:54 PM »


Liberal 60%, PC 59%, New Democrats 34%, Greens 31%. Wonder what caused them to rank Liberals ahead of PCs -- on the vote compass I'm clearly closer to the PCs. (Also, they confusingly placed 'social progressivism' on top and 'social conservatism' on the bottom, the opposite of the classic Political Compass. Although, like some modern tests, they largely define progressivism/conservatism around identity issues rather than religion-and-state issues.)
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Continential
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« Reply #71 on: August 01, 2021, 02:47:10 PM »


Liberal 60%, PC 59%, New Democrats 34%, Greens 31%. Wonder what caused them to rank Liberals ahead of PCs
I remember DC saying that the Liberals are more conservative then the PCs.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #72 on: August 01, 2021, 04:50:47 PM »

Atlantic Canada is known for its blue Liberals and red Tories.
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beesley
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« Reply #73 on: August 02, 2021, 10:36:33 AM »

I wonder if there is going to be an Andrew Younger of this election - someone who goes against the provincial swing to win on personal popularity alone (in his case fyi, he defeated an NDP incumbent in their majority election due to him being a very popular HRM councillor, he was a Liberal and that seat is now Tory). Bill Casey will obviously win hugely but that's not really against the grain, so I guess if John Morgan in Glace Bay-Dominion wins he would take that role.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #74 on: August 02, 2021, 10:57:15 AM »

Nova Scotia Liberal Party (LIB)
64%

Progressive Conservative Association of Nova Scotia (PC)
60%

Nova Scotia New Democratic Party (NDP)
51%

Green Party of Nova Scotia (GRN)
45%
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