Next Nova Scotia general election

[beesley]

Wouldn't be surprised on these numbers of the Tories had only 1-2 seats west of Truro.

[DC Al Fine]

The Liberals were in Cumberland North today promising to remove tolls from the Cobequid Pass. This went over poorly as the Liberals made the exact same promise in the last election and didn't do it.

[lilTommy]

Looks like Preston is finally living up to it's designed purpose once again, for the first time in 20 years (as was pointed out earlier) the MLA will be from the Black Community; the Liberals, PCs and NDP are all running Black candidates.

https://www.halifaxexaminer.ca/featured/for-the-first-time-in-nova-scotia-election-history-all-the-candidates-in-one-riding-are-black/?fbclid=IwAR1EeGJuOQQ9mZr1XAstmBJDmq2HJRnrR65AxyQRk01sx7cvGH9FzP8EzVI

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Looks like Preston is finally living up to it's designed purpose once again, for the first time in 20 years (as was pointed out earlier) the MLA will be from the Black Community; the Liberals, PCs and NDP are all running Black candidates.

https://www.halifaxexaminer.ca/featured/for-the-first-time-in-nova-scotia-election-history-all-the-candidates-in-one-riding-are-black/?fbclid=IwAR1EeGJuOQQ9mZr1XAstmBJDmq2HJRnrR65AxyQRk01sx7cvGH9FzP8EzVI

I think drawing a Preston district is ridiculous, not only is the district severely underpopulated but it's also only 40% black with a history of returning white reps. It's clear that Nova Scotia doesn't have the same racial polarization present in america that required drawing special majority minority district for the minority to have any representation.

[warandwar]

Looks like Preston is finally living up to it's designed purpose once again, for the first time in 20 years (as was pointed out earlier) the MLA will be from the Black Community; the Liberals, PCs and NDP are all running Black candidates.

https://www.halifaxexaminer.ca/featured/for-the-first-time-in-nova-scotia-election-history-all-the-candidates-in-one-riding-are-black/?fbclid=IwAR1EeGJuOQQ9mZr1XAstmBJDmq2HJRnrR65AxyQRk01sx7cvGH9FzP8EzVI

I think drawing a Preston district is ridiculous, not only is the district severely underpopulated but it's also only 40% black with a history of returning white reps. It's clear that Nova Scotia doesn't have the same racial polarization present in america that required drawing special majority minority district for the minority to have any representation.

VRA was about minority voting power and enfranchisement, not necessarily representation amd definitely not "polarization." Nova Scotia has an absolutely terrible history of segregation and racism - look up Viola Desmond and Africville.

[adma]

Looks like Preston is finally living up to it's designed purpose once again, for the first time in 20 years (as was pointed out earlier) the MLA will be from the Black Community; the Liberals, PCs and NDP are all running Black candidates.

https://www.halifaxexaminer.ca/featured/for-the-first-time-in-nova-scotia-election-history-all-the-candidates-in-one-riding-are-black/?fbclid=IwAR1EeGJuOQQ9mZr1XAstmBJDmq2HJRnrR65AxyQRk01sx7cvGH9FzP8EzVI

I think drawing a Preston district is ridiculous, not only is the district severely underpopulated but it's also only 40% black with a history of returning white reps. It's clear that Nova Scotia doesn't have the same racial polarization present in america that required drawing special majority minority district for the minority to have any representation.

VRA was about minority voting power and enfranchisement, not necessarily representation amd definitely not "polarization." Nova Scotia has an absolutely terrible history of segregation and racism - look up Viola Desmond and Africville.

And unlike a lot of US-style racial gerrymandering, it's not designed to make "white seats safer"--NS politics does not work in that fashion.

Interestingly, Ontario did something like this in the last provincial election, carving out a pair of indigenous/Francophone-majority seats in the N (though also in part excused by the vastness of territory covered)

[DC Al Fine]

Looks like Preston is finally living up to it's designed purpose once again, for the first time in 20 years (as was pointed out earlier) the MLA will be from the Black Community; the Liberals, PCs and NDP are all running Black candidates.

https://www.halifaxexaminer.ca/featured/for-the-first-time-in-nova-scotia-election-history-all-the-candidates-in-one-riding-are-black/?fbclid=IwAR1EeGJuOQQ9mZr1XAstmBJDmq2HJRnrR65AxyQRk01sx7cvGH9FzP8EzVI

I think drawing a Preston district is ridiculous, not only is the district severely underpopulated but it's also only 40% black with a history of returning white reps. It's clear that Nova Scotia doesn't have the same racial polarization present in america that required drawing special majority minority district for the minority to have any representation.

It actually sort of does in a sense, which makes the Preston district even worse.

If you know the geography of the area and go through old precinct results, you'll see that the white majority of the district frequently elected white Liberal Keith Colwell (and white Tory David Hendsbee before him) over the preferred candidate (NDP or Tory, our racial politics are weird) of the black villages of Preston and Cherry Brook.

The district was a de facto pocket borough for white MLA's for the past twenty years. The riding failed to do what it was ostensibly designed to do.

[DC Al Fine]

Former Dartmouth South candidate says Liberals dropped her over 'boudoir' photos

Quite the story here.

The Liberal candidate in Dartmouth South resigned as soon as the writ was dropped, citing mental health concerns. Now she is saying the Liberals dropped her because she has an OnlyFans account and told her to lie about it.

[Benjamin Frank]

Former Dartmouth South candidate says Liberals dropped her over 'boudoir' photos

Quite the story here.

The Liberal candidate in Dartmouth South resigned as soon as the writ was dropped, citing mental health concerns. Now she is saying the Liberals dropped her because she has an OnlyFans account and told her to lie about it.

This is the exact sort of thing that Phil Ochs wrote the song "Love Me, I'm a liberal" about.  In the intro to the song in performance Ochs said "Liberals, 10 degrees to the left of center in good times, 10 degrees to the right of center if it effects them personally."

I love the last couple verses:
Sure once I was young and impulsive
I wore every conceivable pin
Even went to the socialist meetings
Learned all the old union hymns

Ah, but I've grown older and wiser
And that's why I'm turning you in
So love me, love me
Love me, I'm a liberal

And, yes, I do recognize that I'm included in the people he's singing about.

[Benjamin Frank]

Interestingly, the NDP is the first party to have nominated a full slate of candidates.

[Hatman 🍁]

Former Dartmouth South candidate says Liberals dropped her over 'boudoir' photos

Quite the story here.

The Liberal candidate in Dartmouth South resigned as soon as the writ was dropped, citing mental health concerns. Now she is saying the Liberals dropped her because she has an OnlyFans account and told her to lie about it.

Amusing that she would run for the Liberals in the first place.

Didn't the Liberals try to get Lenore Zann in trouble for some topless pictures from he work as an actress? And she re-payed them by getting elected for them as an MP.

[adma]

The 2019 federal Conservative candidate in Skeena-Bulkley Valley was pretty left-field, too

https://www.thenorthernview.com/news/skeena-bulkley-valley-conservative-candidate-under-fire-for-human-skull-gift/

And while I don't know if "boudoir photography" was involved in *her* case, it definitely was for the Conservative candidate running in the same riding in *2008* (NB: both candidates lost to the sitting NDP)

https://www.ameriquebec.net/actualites/2008/10/07-sharon-smith-une-candidate-conservatrice-fait-de-la-porn.qc

[DC Al Fine]

Former Dartmouth South candidate says Liberals dropped her over 'boudoir' photos

Quite the story here.

The Liberal candidate in Dartmouth South resigned as soon as the writ was dropped, citing mental health concerns. Now she is saying the Liberals dropped her because she has an OnlyFans account and told her to lie about it.

Amusing that she would run for the Liberals in the first place.

Didn't the Liberals try to get Lenore Zann in trouble for some topless pictures from he work as an actress? And she re-payed them by getting elected for them as an MP.

Oh yeah I remember that. That whole string of events was weird. She later tried to use the NDP government's cyber bullying law to arrest a teenager arrested who tweeted the pictures.

[DC Al Fine]

Interestingly, the NDP is the first party to have nominated a full slate of candidates.

Good sign for them. They usually have to scramble to find candidates in their dead zone (e.g. Yarmouth)

Liberals are missing two: Cumberland South, and Dartmouth South

Tories are only missing Cumberland North, where Smith-McCrossin got expelled from the party. That's normally a very Tory seat, which might say something about the situation on the ground there.

Greens have about 30/55 candidates. That's independent of the federal party's issues. The provincial Greens are pretty poorly organized, and are doing the campaign without a permanent leader.

[Hatman 🍁]

Interestingly, the NDP is the first party to have nominated a full slate of candidates.

Good sign for them. They usually have to scramble to find candidates in their dead zone (e.g. Yarmouth)

Does that have to do with Dexter and the ferry?

[DC Al Fine]

Interestingly, the NDP is the first party to have nominated a full slate of candidates.

Good sign for them. They usually have to scramble to find candidates in their dead zone (e.g. Yarmouth)

Does that have to do with Dexter and the ferry?

Precisely. Once that ferry subsidy was cut, the NDP went from polling the 20's (and briefly holding the seat in the 90's) to being lucky to get 5%.

[DC Al Fine]

Actually if you want to talk about terrible trends, this is a great example. The NDP in Yarmouth went from 45% to 2.5% in the span of fifteen years

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Interestingly, the NDP is the first party to have nominated a full slate of candidates.

Good sign for them. They usually have to scramble to find candidates in their dead zone (e.g. Yarmouth)

Does that have to do with Dexter and the ferry?

Precisely. Once that ferry subsidy was cut, the NDP went from polling the 20's (and briefly holding the seat in the 90's) to being lucky to get 5%.

Why did they cut it ?

[DC Al Fine]

Interestingly, the NDP is the first party to have nominated a full slate of candidates.

Good sign for them. They usually have to scramble to find candidates in their dead zone (e.g. Yarmouth)

Does that have to do with Dexter and the ferry?

Precisely. Once that ferry subsidy was cut, the NDP went from polling the 20's (and briefly holding the seat in the 90's) to being lucky to get 5%.

Why did they cut it ?

It was expensive, the ferry was losing money, and the NDP ran on an anti-corporate welfare campaign. However it furthered the perception that the NDP is a Halifax party, especially in light of their support for the Halifax Shipyard at the same time.

[DC Al Fine]

Debate will be July 28, 6:00-7:30 Atlantic time.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Debate will be July 28, 6:00-7:30 Atlantic time.

Which parties are represented and by whom ?

[DC Al Fine]

Debate will be July 28, 6:00-7:30 Atlantic time.

Which parties are represented and by whom ?

Pretty standard. Liberal, Tory, NDP all represented by their leaders. The other parties have no seats and won't come close to running a full slate of candidates, so there's none of the drama around debates that you sometimes see at the federal level.

[mileslunn]

First poll post writ by Mainstreet https://ipolitics.ca/2021/07/26/n-s-liberals-hold-strong-lead-ahead-of-provincial-vote/ .  Good start for Liberals and definitely have edge, but I wouldn't totally count PCs out.  Different philosophically between two parties is small and as campaign progresses shift away from federal to provincial.  I've generally found PCs in Atlantic Canada tend to gain during campaign.  Probably not enough to win, but likely will go up as many associate them with federal Tories who are very unpopular in Atlantic Canada, but as campaign progresses when it becomes clear provincial PCs are still like the old PCs, not like the Reform party as federal party is, you tend to get many Red Tories who are not voting Liberal federally coming home.  So advantage Liberal, but unlike say federal where I would say a lead this big pretty much means game over; ideological differences are small enough a PC win, while not likely, still is possible. 

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Debate will be July 28, 6:00-7:30 Atlantic time.

Which parties are represented and by whom ?

Pretty standard. Liberal, Tory, NDP all represented by their leaders. The other parties have no seats and won't come close to running a full slate of candidates, so there's none of the drama around debates that you sometimes see at the federal level.

The Green party wasn't able to run a full slate ?

[Continential]

Debate will be July 28, 6:00-7:30 Atlantic time.

Which parties are represented and by whom ?

Pretty standard. Liberal, Tory, NDP all represented by their leaders. The other parties have no seats and won't come close to running a full slate of candidates, so there's none of the drama around debates that you sometimes see at the federal level.

The Green party wasn't able to run a full slate ?

They ran 23 candidates.