Next Nova Scotia general election

[Benjamin Frank]

Final results

Mainland Nova Scotia (25 ridings)
Total votes: 188,442
P.C:              90,322, 47.9%
Liberal:         63,819, 33.9
NDP:            24,759, 13.1
Green:           4,552,   2.4
Other:           4,990

Halifax Regional Municipality (22 ridings)
Total votes: 170,758
Liberal:         66,510, 38.9%
NDP:            50,879, 29.8
P.C:              48,470, 28.4
Green:            4,418,  2.6
Other:               481

Cape Breton (8 ridings)
Total Votes: 61,851
Liberal:       24,698, 39.9%
P.C:            23,686, 38.3
NDP:          12,883, 20.8
Green:             72
Other:            512

Nova Scotia
Total Votes: 421,051
P.C:            162,478, 38.6%
Liberal:       155,027, 36.8
NDP:            88,521, 21.0
Green:           9,042,  2.1
Other:           5,983

Overall there were changes in the vote count in 32 ridings, but only significant additional votes in three ridings. Cole Harbour's turnout was not as bad as first thought.

Obviously, no seats changed hands from the preliminary vote count to the final vote count, but there were 3 changes that significantly affected the NDP that people here might be interested in.

1.The P.Cs caught up to a tie for third place with the NDP in Cumberland North.

2.The NDP moved ahead of the P.Cs in Preston.

3.The NDP share of the vote dropped in Cole Harbour to the point where it ended up lower than in the 2017 election.  Overall, the NDP share of the vote was up in 24 ridings over 2017 and down in 31.

In the end, there were just three ridings the NDP lost by less than 10%: the central Halifax ridings of Fairview-Clayton Park and Halifax Armdale and the Cape Breton riding of Glace Bay-Dominion which was obviously more of a vote for NDP candidate John Morgan than for the NDP.

There were 16 ridings that were won by less than 10% of the vote.  The P.Cs won 10 of these, 9 over the Liberals, and Glace Bay-Dominion was a three way race. The Liberals won the two mentioned above over the NDP, and the NDP won two over the Liberals (Cape Breton Centre-Whitney Pier and Halifax-Citadel-Sable Island.) The Liberals won 2 ridings over the P.Cs by less than 10%: Clare and Cole Harbour.)

That the P.Cs won nearly every riding they were competitive in speaks to their vote efficiency and how they won a majority government with the lowest share of the vote in at least recent Nova Scotia history.

Clear why the election result was a surprise, I don't think anybody would have predicted a majority P.C government given that they won the popular vote over the Liberals just 38.6-36.8%

[Estrella]

from ksituan

[DistingFlyer]

Here are polling graphs for the last few campaigns, as well as for the years between elections:

2009-2013 (NDP government)


2013 (Liberal victory)


2013-2017 (Liberal government)


2017 (Liberal victory)


2017-2021 (Liberal government, followed by PC victory)



With so few polls taken during the most recent campaign, I skipped a separate graph for that & just combined it with the last four years.

[DistingFlyer]

Here are the tipping-point ridings for this election & past ones - tipping point for a majority, I should stress:



Interesting that the winner in said riding has been a first-time MLA for the last nine elections (though understandable for a newly-elected government or a minority).

[DistingFlyer]

And here are graphs showing the success of incumbent governments in retaining seats.

2013


2017


2021



Colored bars paralleling each axis reflect the approximate provincewide swing, to compare with how effective the opposition's targeting of marginals was.

[Oryxslayer]

Judicial recount ordered in Glace Bay-Dominion, where the PC's won by 246 33 votes. Requested by the NDP.

[MaxQue]

Judicial recount ordered in Glace Bay-Dominion, where the PC's won by 246 votes. Requested by the NDP.

33 votes. 246 was the margin between 1st and 3rd.

[DistingFlyer]

Recount complete; John White still holds the riding, now by 29 votes.

[Benjamin Frank]

I know that you've all you following this thread have been waiting on baited breath, unable to sleep, for Frank's cabinet prediction.  Okay, none of you have, but you all should have!


I don't think this will be completely correct as I don't think the cabinet will actually be this large or that these will be all actual ministries.

1.Premier/Federal-Provincial Relations, Tim Houston
2.Finance, Allan MacMaster
3.Economic Development and Trade, Steve Craig
4.Tourism, Small Business and Culture, Trevor Boudreau
5.Labour, Immigration and Citizenship, Kim Masland
6.Natural Resources and Forestry, Tory Rushton
7.Energy and Mines, Keith Bains
8.Agriculture, Fisheries and Aquaculture, John Lohr
9.Environment, Barbara Adams
10.Transportation and Infrastructure, Karla MacFarlane
11.Service Nova Scotia, Brian Wong
12.Children and Family Development, Jill Besler
13.Social Development and Housing, Larry Harrison
14.Education, Susan Corkum Greek
15.Advanced Education and Training, Colton LeBlanc
16.Health, Tim Halman
17.Municiptal Affairs, Brad Johns
18.Indigenous Relations, Michelle Thompson
19.Justice and Public Safety, Becky Durham

Speaker, Pat Dunn
Whip, Dave Ritcey
Caucus Chair, Tom Taggart

My track record is to get a lot of the names right (though far from all) for getting into the cabinet, but to get them in the wrong positions.

Pat Dunn is the only P.C MLA to have previously served in cabinet, all be it in a fairly junior ministry (health promotion and protection) but I think he loses out in Pictou based on the numbers game.

Keith Bain is the only other P.C MLA to have been on the government benches, but he was, I believe, the Deputy Speaker at the time.

Part of the problem with forming a cabinet taking gender into consideration is that this is the gender breakdown of the P.C MLAs

Mainland: 12 men, 8 women
Halifax: 5 men, 1 woman
Cape Breton, 5 men

So, providing representation for Halifax and Cape Breton in the cabinet makes it harder to appoint more women to the cabinet.

(In addition to the 9 women in the P.C caucus, there are 5 women in the Liberal caucus, 5 in the NDP caucus and the one independent, so 20 of the 55 MLAs are women.)

There are a couple mistakes here
1.Her name is Becky Druhan, not Becky Durham, I regret the error.

2.I left Cape Breton incumbent MLA Brian Comer out of the cabinet.  I will not take full responsibility for this and want to complain about it a bit.  

First, the Nova Scotia Progressive Conservative candidate website only mentioned him as a 'registered nurse in mental health and addictions' and did not mention that he had been an MLA first elected in a by-election in 2019.  What gives?

Second, because the riding boundaries had changed, wiki listed Cape Breton East as a 'new riding' at the time and did not mention that Brian Comer was an incumbent MLA. Although his name was clickable in wiki, I did not notice that.

Also, apparently Premier Tim Houston has promised to create a new ministry for Mental Health and Addictions.  

So, these are my final predictions

1.Premier/Federal-Provincial Relations, Tim Houston
2.Finance, Allan MacMaster
3.Economic Development and Trade, Steve Craig
4.Tourism, Small Business and Culture, Jill Balser
5.Labour, Immigration and Citizenship, Kim Masland
6.Natural Resources and Forestry, Tory Rushton
7.Energy and Mines, Keith Bains
8.Agriculture, Fisheries and Aquaculture, John Lohr
9.Environment, Barbara Adams
10.Transportation and Infrastructure, Karla MacFarlane
11.Service Nova Scotia, Brian Wong
12.Children, Families and Social Development, Larry Harrison
13.Education, Susan Corkum Greek
14.Advanced Education and Training, Colton LeBlanc
15.Health, Tim Halman
16.Mental Health and Addictions, Brian Comer
17.Municiptal Affairs and Housing, Brad Johns
18.Indigenous Relations, Michelle Thompson
19.Justice and Public Safety, Becky Druhan

Apparently Tim Houston has also indicated that he wants gender parity in the cabinet and there are 9 women MLAs and that the cabinet will contain between 15-18 members, but I'm not sure which incumbent male MLAs to drop, so this is my final prediction.  

In terms of a smaller cabinet, I could see Tourism and Small Business combined with Economic Development and Trade, Natural Resources and Forestry combined with Energy and Mines, Labour and Immigration combined with Advanced Education and Training (Nova Scotia is known for its world class universities, so I gather they're also used for immigration purposes. Or, if not for immigration purposes, at least for bringing in foreign students.)  I would also not be surprised if the Premier took on Indigenous Relations as well.

[DistingFlyer]

Government sworn in today.

Tim Houston (Pictou East): Premier/Exec/Intergov Affairs, Trade
Allan MacMaster (Inverness): Deputy Premier, Finance/Treasury Board, Labour Relations
Pat Dunn (Pictou Centre): Communities/Culture/Tourism/Heritage, African-Nova Scotian Affairs
John Lohr (Kings North): Municipal Affairs/Housing, Emergency Management
Karla MacFarlane (Pictou West): Community Services, L'nu Affairs
Barbara Adams (Eastern Passage): Seniors/Long-term Care
Tim Halman (Dartmouth East): Environment/Climate Change, Chair of Treasury/Policy Board
Kim Masland (Queens): Public Works
Brad Johns (Sackville - Uniacke): Attorney General/Justice, Provincial Secretary
Tory Rushton (Cumberland South): Natural Resources/Renewables
Steve Craig (Sackville - Cobequid): Fisheries/Aquaculture
Colton LeBlanc (Argyle): Public Service Commission, Service NS/Internal, Acadian/Francophonie
Brian Comer (Cape Breton East): Communications, Mental Health/Addictions
Michelle Thompson (Antigonish): Health/Wellness
Jill Balser (Digby - Annapolis): Labour/Skills/Immigration
Greg Morrow (Guysborough - Tracadie): Agriculture
Susan Corkum-Greek (Lunenburg): Economic Development
Becky Druhan (Lunenburg West): Education/Childhood
Brian Wong (Waverley - Fall River - Beaver Bank): Advanced Education

Of the twelve Tory backbenchers, nine are freshmen - Larry Harrison (Colchester - Musquodoboit Valley), Keith Bain (Victoria - The Lakes) & Dave Ritcey (Truro - Bible Hill - etc.) are the only ones with experience in the legislature.

[DistingFlyer]

On the subject of members' longevity, there are now only two Liberals who've been in the House since before the Grit victory in 2013 (Churchill & Regan), and eight who've only been in the House during the Liberal administration (including Rankin). Seven are new.

As for the New Democrats, only one (Gary Burrill) was first elected before 2017, and two are new.

The Tories have two members (Bain & Dunn) who were around during the MacDonald government, though neither have served continuously since then (Bain lost in 2013 & came back in 2017, while Dunn lost in 2009 & got back in in 2013). Fifteen were first elected two weeks ago, of which six are now in the Government.

Overall, the MLA with the longest continuous service is Kelly Regan (Bedford Basin), who's been in since 2009. Keith Bain & Pat Dunn were first elected in 2006, but have had periods of being out of the House in the meantime.

[beesley]

On the subject of members' longevity, there are now only two Liberals who've been in the House since before the Grit victory in 2013 (Churchill & Regan), and eight who've only been in the House during the Liberal administration (including Rankin). Seven are new.

As for the New Democrats, only one (Gary Burrill) was first elected before 2017, and two are new.

The Tories have two members (Bain & Dunn) who were around during the MacDonald government, though neither have served continuously since then (Bain lost in 2013 & came back in 2017, while Dunn lost in 2009 & got back in in 2013). Fifteen were first elected two weeks ago, of which six are now in the Government.

Overall, the MLA with the longest continuous service is Kelly Regan (Bedford Basin), who's been in since 2009. Keith Bain & Pat Dunn were first elected in 2006, but have had periods of being out of the House in the meantime.

Apologies if this has already been announced, but I presume Keith Bain is the most likely candidate to be Speaker?

[DistingFlyer]

On the subject of members' longevity, there are now only two Liberals who've been in the House since before the Grit victory in 2013 (Churchill & Regan), and eight who've only been in the House during the Liberal administration (including Rankin). Seven are new.

As for the New Democrats, only one (Gary Burrill) was first elected before 2017, and two are new.

The Tories have two members (Bain & Dunn) who were around during the MacDonald government, though neither have served continuously since then (Bain lost in 2013 & came back in 2017, while Dunn lost in 2009 & got back in in 2013). Fifteen were first elected two weeks ago, of which six are now in the Government.

Overall, the MLA with the longest continuous service is Kelly Regan (Bedford Basin), who's been in since 2009. Keith Bain & Pat Dunn were first elected in 2006, but have had periods of being out of the House in the meantime.

Apologies if this has already been announced, but I presume Keith Bain is the most likely candidate to be Speaker?

Correct you are.